SUSTAINABLE FISHING AND HEALTH OF THE OCEANS PROGRAM

NATIONAL PRESS FOUNDATION – TAMPA, JULY 2018

Introduction to
Fisheries Stock Assessments

Luiz Barbieri
Marine Fisheries Research
Fish and Wildlife Research Institute
 WHAT IS A STOCK ASSESSMENT?

An appraisal of how many fish are out there and

how they will respond to fishing
“Counting fish
is just like
counting trees,
except they are
invisible and
they keep
moving”
John Shepherd
 WHAT IS A STOCK ASSESSMENT?
• Set of equations representing a simplified version of the
dynamics of a fish population and its fisheries

• With parameters that can be estimated from existing data

• To provide advice on where the fish population is relative to

management benchmarks and how it will respond to future
management actions
STOCK ASSESSMENT AND POPULATION
GROWTH
How do we decide what is
a sustainable rate?
SCIENCE-MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

Fishery
FisheryPolicy
PolicyDevelopment
DevelopmentProcess
Process

Stock
Stock Management
Management
DATA
DATA Assessment
Assessment Decision
Decision

SCIENCE MANAGEMENT
NMFS Science Centers Councils
State F&W Agencies
Universities
 MSA – NATIONAL STANDARDS

National Standard 1
NS1: Conservation and management measures shall
prevent overfishing while achieving, on a continuing basis,
the optimum yield from each fishery for the US fishing
industry.
Guiding principle for all Council
actions – must prevent
overfishing, while allowing yield
 MSA – NATIONAL STANDARDS

National Standard 2
NS2: Conservation and management measures shall
be based upon the best scientific information
available.
• Peer Review
• Separation of Science and
Management
• Guidance on “Best Scientific
Information Available”
 WHAT IS THE SSC?
• Scientific and Statistical Committee
• Determines ‘Best Science Information Available’ for
the Council
SSC
Science Management

• Science does not decide the policy

• Policy-makers cannot make informed
decisions without the science
 SCIENCE-MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

Fishery
FisheryPolicy
PolicyDevelopment
DevelopmentProcess
Process

STOCK
STOCK MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
DATA
DATA ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT DECISION
DECISION

Stock assessments give fisheries managers guidance on whether:

1) Populations are too small (overfished?) → Biomass
2) Fishing pressure is too high (overfishing?) → Fishing Rate
 STOCK ASSESSMENTS – DATA INTEGRATION

Scientific Surveys

Recreational
Fisheries
Monitoring

Commercial
Fisheries
Monitoring

Population Structure Biology and Ecology

TYPES OF FISHERIES DATA

• Fishery-Dependent: are derived from

the commercial or recreational
fisheries

• Fishery-Independent: are collected

directly by scientists, i.e., derived
from activities that do not involve the
commercial or recreational fisheries
STOCK ASSESSMENTS – COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS!

But in more simples terms…

 FISH POPULATIONS INCREASE OR DECREASE
ACCORDING TO
THE BALANCE BETWEEN PRODUCTION AND DEATH
THE STOCK

THE
Births STOCK
(Recruits) Natural Mortality

Growth Fishing Mortality

‘Production’ ‘Death’

Stock assessments are essentially the process of

finding values for the boxes and arrows
 THE ABC OF STOCK ASSESSMENTS

Abundance Biology Catch

POPULATION
MODEL

STOCK STATUS
{
F = FISHING RATE B = BIOMASS
OVERFISHING OVERFISHED
 UNCERTAINTY: BASIC CONCEPTS
THINGS WE
KNOW!

and - Inherent variability

NATURAL
- Very hard to control
VARIABILIT
- In principle, irreducible
Y - Can only be quantified
THINGS WE
DON’T
KNOWLEDG
KNOW E - Easier to control
UNCERTAIN - Reducible, at a cost
TY
LINK BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY AND RISK

• Assessment deals with scientific uncertainty

• Managers deal with management uncertainty as
well as RISK
UNCERTAINTY AND CATCH LEVEL RECOMMENDATIONS
QUESTIONS?