2308HSL

Destination Management

Future Trends
and Challenges

Week 12
 Today’s Objectives

• Re-cap the guest lecture

• Future trends
• Meta challenges facing global tourism
 Guest Lecture Last Week
• What are some of the hurdles to tourism
development in destinations?
Changes in Demand for Travel
• Growth in mass tourism following the
end of World War II
– Rise of “sand and sun” destinations
– the beach holiday

• Global tourism and hospitality chains

in multiple destinations
– Synthetic, syndicated, but
dependable tourist experiences
– E.g., Accor hotels, Disney.
McDonalds

• Video: Why sustainable tourism?

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

Changes in Demand for Travel
• Destinations need to offer something unique
– E.g., not just another city experience or beach

• Growth in demand for specialised, personalised experiences

– Seeking experiences, not just product

– Hedonic experiences – the “good life” or pleasure-seeking.

– Experiences that offer an opportunity to try something new, take risks,

and achieve self-fulfillment

• Especially the Baby Boomers who “have a greater desire for novelty, escape and
authentic experiences than previous cohorts of retirees”.

– New markets: wellness tourism, medical tourism, green tourist resorts,

volunteer tourism, special interest tourism (e.g., mountain bike riding,
golf, etc.)

– Video: Tourism Trends and Challenges – Professor John Tribe

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

Changes in Demand for Travel
• Increase in localised and domestic travel???
– E.g., Continental travel by residents of
Europe and North America
– Why?
• Predicted future oil shortages
• Rising energy prices
• Consumers’ increasing environmental
consciousness, particularly about their
carbon footprint and the environmental
impacts of long-haul air travel.

• New types of travel: Space travel

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

 Destination
Competitiveness
Which regions are growing and which
ones are declining or stagnating?

UNWTO's Tourism 2020 Vision

forecasts:

• East Asia and the Pacific, Asia, the

Middle East and Africa are
forecasted to record growth at rates
of over 5% year, compared to the
world average of 4.1%.

• The more mature regions Europe

and Americas are anticipated to
show lower than average growth
rates.

• Europe will maintain the highest

share of world arrivals, although
there will be a decline from 60 per
cent in 1995 to 46 per cent in 2020.

http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm
Tourism Futures Research

Predictions
Prognosis
- The future is an
- Statistical tools and
extension of the
tools that claim the
present
future will occur
- e.g., UNWTO's
- E.g., Climate change
Tourism 2020 Vision
models
forecasts

Science Fiction
- “What if?”
- Realistic speculation about
possible future events

Yeoman, I., & Beeton, S. (2014). The State of

Tourism Futures Research: An Asian Pacific
Ontological Perspective. Journal of Travel
Research, 53(6), 675-679.
 The Future of Tourism

Amazing Opportunities & Challenges

HUGE changes coming

1. Demographics
2. Technology
3. Moderate Growth
 Demographics - Australia

• Increased divorce rate and more single

parent families
• Increased women participation in the
workforce
• Better educated
• Ageing population

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

 Baby Boomers
• Prospered from the buoyant economic climate during adulthood and
overall have accumulated certain wealth.

• Some Baby Boomers are free from mortgage debt and have high
spending power.

• Not afraid to spend money – suggesting price will be less important

than the feelings generated through traveling.

• Unlike past retirees, Baby Boomer retirees will not be merely filling
time, but will seek experiences that provide emotional satisfaction
and novel outcomes, such as freedom, new experiences, and
opportunities for socialising.

• Video: Catering to the “Golden Traveller” – Accessible and Respite

Tourism

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

 Generation X
• Generation X grew up during a period of economic downsizing and
insecurity as to the future.

• Described as particularly cautious and savvy consumers.

• Career and success are important for members of this generation,

who are ambitious and determined to succeed, although they also
want a comfortable lifestyle and fun.

• Travel provides an opportunity to achieve the work/life balance they

desire.

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

 Generation Y
• Accustomed to abundance, having grown up in an era where
capitalism rules.

• Are consumption-oriented and inclined to spend freely.

• Seek novel, unique, and personalised consumer (travel)

experiences that give them credibility among peers and an image of
“coolness”.

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

 Emerging Questions
• What do these generational changes mean for tourism destination
and their experiences?

• What will Baby Boomers demand and how will destinations evolve
to meet those demands?

• What will the next generation (e.g., Generation Z) of youth tourists

and ultimately family tourists seek in a holiday?
 Implications
• Tourism operators could unbundle their offering

• Then, through a process of co-creation, a consumer and the

business could engage in a process of re-bundling to create
the consumer’s own tailored experience.

• Many low-cost airline carriers have adopted this approach,

allowing consumers to select individualized travel packages
that may include meals, entertainment, luggage, and so on.

• A shift toward a more dynamic process of co-creation so that

consumers, particularly from Generation X and Y, create their
own stories and narratives about their travel experiences to
share with others.

Source: Gardiner et al., 2014.

 Demographics – International
• Rise in the middle class in China and India

– How to deal with the volume of visitors?

• Sustainability of destinations
• Pros: Economic growth and job creation
• Cons: Resource use and pollution

– Problems with Chinese group tourism

• Profitless volume
• Social and behavioural issues
– Chinese tourist behaving badly

Australian Government. (2014). ​Global context of tertiary student mobility. Available from:
https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/pages/default.aspx
 Demographics – International
• International education
– The number of foreign students has more than doubled from
2.1 to 4.5 million in the thirteen year period from 2000 to 2012,
representing an annual average growth of 7% per year.
– Growth in the study tourism market:
• 761,992 Chinese students studying abroad (or 16.8% of all
students studying abroad).
• 217,319 Indian students studying abroad (4.8% of all student
studying abroad).

Australian Government. (2014). ​Global context of tertiary student mobility. Available from:
https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/pages/default.aspx
 In Your Opinion…
• Should mass tourism be encouraged?

• Is the generation of employment and

economic prosperity more important than
the environment? Is a balance achievable
given the tourism growth forecasts?
 Technology
• Faster, more efficient transportation
– More people travelling via plane
– Makes the world more accessible (save time and money)

• New online and mobile technologies

– Online information search – more access to information
– Booking (online distribution) – compare price and offers, e-business and managing
distribution channels has become complex
– Travel apps – helps with navigation and information, augments experience (e.g.,
virtual reality, backstage pass)
– Reviews – gives consumers power

• Self-service technologies
– Faster, more efficient
– Less staff resources required (savings $$$)
– Personalisation – guest management systems (collecting valuable information on your
guests that can be used to personalise service and encourage repeat or additional
purchases)

• Will virtual reality displace demand for real experiences?

 The View of the Consumer

• Ageing population & new generational priorities

• Increasingly connected society (mobile)
• Fluctuating economic conditions worldwide
• Consumer appetite for travel is insatiable
• Time compression (time poverty)
• Convenience wins
• Changing customer: Makes their own decisions, is more
connected that ever, shapes their own relationship with brands.
Impediments to Tourism:
The View of Business
 Meta-challenges facing
global tourism GLOBALISATION:
Coping with a
changing market
situation in tourism
in a globalised world

CONTRIBUTION
SELF-CONTROL: AND EFFECTS:
Managing tourism
assets with respect Tourism's effects on
to market conditions nature, society and
economy

ADAPTATION: BALANCE:
Adapting to and Using and
benefiting from safeguarding
changing framework destinations’ core
conditions values
Source: von Bergner and Lohmann (2014)
 GLOBALISATION
• Further development of sustainable tourism
management strategies in a globalised travel
world

• Unequal distribution of knowledge and

resources in tourism despite

• The need for information diffusion and rising

awareness of general policies in order to
support tourism development in less
developed societies
 GLOBALISATION
• To develop adaption strategies for the changes on
the demand side, especially with regard to the
increasing demographic changes in the developed
countries and the new strong traveler markets
comprising East Asia (mainly China, partly India),
Russia and Brazil

• New concepts of sustainable development of

tourism destinations need to be created (no
overbuilding, right ratio between second homes and
hotels, etc.)

• Constant danger of terror attacks in changing areas

and fields
 SELF-CONTROL
• Growing need for investments in qualified human resources
despite high cost pressure on employers in tourism

• To handle the increasing cost pressure (rising costs for

transportation, increasing global competition, etc.) in tourism

• There will be a great customer focus on obtaining quality

(standards and services) at affordable and clear prices

• Rising competition in several sectors (especially in the hotel

sector out of peak season, in the cruise sector and in the winter
ski destinations) because of overcapacities

• The introduction or improvement of measures of strategic

planning in tourism markets, especially in developing
countries/regions/localities
 ADAPTATION
• The uncertainty of the climate change effect,
especially at a local level

• Quick reaction on unforeseeable events (volcano

eruption, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, etc.) in
the form of more-prepared contingency plans

• Tourism facilities and destinations need to take

green development into consideration

• Tourism needs to adapt to the different (and fast

changing) communication tools and information
platforms
 ADAPTATION
• Tourism suppliers – both destinations and service companies –
will have to adapt their marketing strategies, tactics and
initiatives to the development and diffusion of new
communication and information technologies in order to follow
consumer preferences

• The fast changing technique of information/distribution systems

(e-marketing/e-booking)

• There will be changes in consumer behavior due to existing and

new generations of consumers so that demand and supply will
change; the markets will be changed; which affects the
companies’ marketing efforts

• Demographic Change: the ageing population in the most

advanced countries, sustained by the welfare and health care
systems
 BALANCE
• The preservation of nature in destinations
despite pressure from tourism to use it
• To maintain sustainability, to meet the
rising impact on the environment as well
as an increasing demand from new
markets and to stay attractive at the same
time
 CONTRIBUTION AND
EFFECTS
• The implementation of tools to promote
sustainable tourism development in order
to create rising awareness and better
understanding of sustainable tourism and
its effects for a local and global
community and to support its development
 Destination Weakness
1. Aging infrastructure (hotels, attractions)
2. Poor knowledge of visitor behavior & perceptions
3. Homogeneous (everywhere USA)
4. Wayfinding & Signage
5. Orientation & Facilitation: How to (fish, kayak, bike, etc.)

6. Lack of community support

7. Difficult to “find the good stuff”
 What will change?
• “Warm and Friendly” – will it last?
• Food: More exotic – less authentic regional flavor
• Scenic beauty vs. traffic
• Wildlife vs. “Flattened Fauna”
• Year-round travel
• Loss of space: fishing, biking, birding, etc.
• Quality of interpretation
• Preservation of “sense of place”
• Homogenization
 Next 10 Years in Tourism

• Age of the Informed Consumer (peer info)

• E-Security
 Contagious Diseases and Threat
to Tourism
• SARS
• Ebola

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ebola-virus-outbreak-threatens-africas-tourist-industry-
1408462301
 Global impact of Ebola

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC085HN34vg
 Concluding Questions for
You…
• Are there any other future trends and
challenges that you think will impact on the
tourism industry?

• In your opinion, what future trends and

challenges will have the most impact?
How could destinations mitigate against
them?
Recommended Reading
• Gardiner, S., Grace, D., & King, C. (2014).
The Generation Effect: The Future of
Domestic Tourism in Australia. Journal of
Travel Research, 53(6), 705-720.

• von Bergner, N. M., & Lohmann, M.

(2014). Future Challenges for Global
Tourism: A Delphi Survey. Journal of
Travel Research, 53(4), 420-432.