CASE: 4

COLGATE-PALMOLIVE
MAKES A “TOTAL” EFFORT
GROUP 1
Alvarez, Lowela Joy
Garcia, Michele
Meimban, Felix
Ocampo, Mary Rose
INTRODUCTION

In the mid-1990s, Colgate-Palmolive developed a new toothpaste for the

U.S. market, Colgate Total, with an antibacterial ingredient that was
already being successfully sold overseas. However, the word
antibacterial was not allowed for such products by the Food and Drug
Administration rules. So Colgate-Palmolive had to come up with another
way of marketing this and other features of their new toothpaste to U.S.
consumers. Market researchers told Colgate-Palmolive that consumers
were weary of trying to discern among the different advantages of
various toothpaste brands and wanted simplification in their shopping
lives. In response, the name “Total” was given to the product in the
United States: The one word would convey that the toothpaste is the
“total” package of various benefits.
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Young & Rubicam developed several commercials illustrating
Total’s benefits and tested the commercials with focus groups. One
commercial touting Total’s long lasting benefits was particularly
successful. Meanwhile, in 1997, Colgate-Palmolive received FDA
approval for Total, five years after the company had applied for it.
The product was launched in the United States in January of 1998
using commercials that were designed from the more successful
ideas of the focus group tests. Total was introduced with a $100
million advertising campaign. Ten months later, 21% of all United
States households had purchased Total for the first time. During this
same time period,43% of those who initially tried Total purchased it
again. A year after its release, Total was the number one toothpaste
in the US.

3
Total is advertised as not just a toothpaste but as a protective
shield that protects you for a full range of oral health problems
for up to 12 hours. Total is now offered in a variety of forms,
including Colgate Total Advanced Whitening, Colgate Total
Advanced Clean, Colgate Total Advanced Fresh Gel, Colgate
Total Clean Mint Paste, Colgate Total Whitening Paste,
Colgate Total Whitening Gel, Colgate Total Plus Whitening
Liquid, and Colgate Total Mint Stripe Gel. In the United States,
market share for Colgate Total toothpaste was 16.2% in the
second quarter of 2008, which was its highest quarterly share
ever.

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Discussion
1. What probabilities are given in this case?
Use these probabilities and the probability
laws to determine what percentage of U.S.
households purchased Total at least twice
in the first 10 months of its release.

6
21 % of all U.S. households purchased Total at
least once in the introduction period.
Let event A be that a U.S. person (or household),
randomly picked, used Total in the introduction
period at least once.
So the probability for A is,

P (A) = 0.21 7
43% of those who initially tried Total purchased it again.
Probability that a U.S. person (or household), randomly
picked from amongst those who tried Total at least
once in the introduction period, purchased it again is

P (B|A) = 0.43
where event B is that a U.S. person (or household),
randomly picked, used Total at least twice in the
introduction period. 8
Now, using the Special Multiplication Law of probability,
The probability for event B, i.e. probability that a U.S.
person (or household), randomly picked, used Total at
least twice in the introduction period is

P (B) = P (A) . P (B|A)

= 0.21 × 0.43

P (B) = 0.0903 9
2. Is age category independent of willingness to try new
products? According to the U.S. Census Bureau,
approximately 20% of all Americans are in the 45–64
age category. Suppose 24% of the consumers who
purchased Total for the first time during the initial 10-
month period were in the 45–64 age category. Use this
information to determine whether age is independent of
the initial purchase of Total during the introductory time
period. Explain your answer. 10
▪ By definition, events “Age 45-64” and “Purchase first
time” are independent P(c) or P(Age 45-64) AND
P(Purchase First time)
▪
▪ = P(Age 45-64) x P (Purchase First time)
▪ = P (0.20) x (0.21)
▪ = 0.042
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▪ =P (Age 45-64 AND Purchase First time)
▪ =P (Age 45-64IPurchase First time) x P(Purchase First
time)
▪ =0.24 x 0.21
▪ =0.0504

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Since the 2 values above are NOT equal:
Events “Age 45-64” and “Purchase First time”
are NOT INDEPENDENT.

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3. Using the probabilities given in Question 2,
calculate the probability that a randomly
selected U.S. consumer is either in the 45–64 age
category or purchased Total during the initial 10-
month period. What is the probability that a
randomly selected person purchased Total in the
first 10 months given that the person is in the 45–
64 age category?
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▪ The probability that a randomly selected U.S. consumer
is either in the 45-64 age category or purchased Total
during the initial 10-month period is

=P(Age 45-64 OR Purchase First time)

=P(Age 45-64) + P(Purchase First time) – P(Age 45-64
AND Purchase First time)
=0.20 + 0.21 – 0.0504
=0.36 15
▪ The probability that a randomly selected person
purchased Total in the first 10 month given that the
person is in the 45-64 age category, is

=P(Purchase First timeIAge 45-65)

▪ = P(Age 45-64 AND Purchase First time)/P(Purchase
First time)
▪ =0.0504/0.21
▪ =0.24 16
4. Suppose 32% of all toothpaste consumers in the United
States saw the Total commercials. Of those who saw the
commercials, 40% purchased Total at least once in the
first10 months of its introduction. Of those who did not see
the commercials, 12.06%purchased Total at least once in the
first 10 months of its introduction. Suppose a toothpaste
consumer is randomly selected and it is learned that they
purchased Total during the first 10 months of its
introduction. Revise the probability that this person saw the
Total commercials and the probability that the person did
not see the Total commercials.
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Let X: all toothpaste consumers in the United
States who saw the Total commercials.
Let Y: all toothpaste consumers in the United
States who did not see the Total Commercials.

P (X) = 0.32
P (Y) = 0.68 18
Probability that a person who saw Total commercials,
purchased Total in the introduction period is
P (A|X) = 0.40

Probability that a person who did not see Total

commercials, but purchased Total in the introduction
period is 19
P (A|Y) = 0.1206
Using General Law of Multiplication, P (A∩X) = P (X) . P (A|X)
= 0.32 x 0.40

=P (A∩X) = 0.128

P (A∩Y) = P (Y) . P (A|Y)

= 0.68 x 0.1206

=P (A∩Y) = 0.082
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By Bayes’ Law, total probability that a person randomly
chosen, purchased Total in the initial period is
P (A) = P (A∩X) + P (A∩Y)
= 0.128 + 0.082

P (A) = 0.21 which is the same as given directly from the

case. So, the calculations are verified.
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Now, the probability that a person saw Total
commercials, given that he/she purchased
Total in the initial period is
P (X|A) = P(A∩X) / P(A)
= 0.128 / 0.21
= 0.6095
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And, the probability that a person did not see
Total commercials, given that he/she
purchased Total in the initial period is

P(YIA) = P (A∩Y) / P (A)

= 0.082 / .21
= 0.3905 23
Conclusion
▪ There was little probability that a US person will
randomly pick and use Total at least twice in the
introduction period.
▪ It was determined that age is NOT INDEPENDENT
of the initial purchase of Total during the initial
period.
▪ There is higher probability that those who are able
to see the commercial will purchase Colgate Total. 25
THANKS!

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