Course:

Quantitative Tools for Decision Making

 Guest Speaker:

 Dr. Muhammad Abiodullah

Aims:

 To acquaint and train the probationer officers on techniques of evidence

based decision making.
 To improve the ability to make effective and practical decisions.
 To gain an in-depth comprehensive and appreciation of quantitative analysis.
 To identify organizational situations amenable to iterative quantitative
analysis.
 To harness the power of computerized solution techniques and thoroughly
understand their results.
 To evaluate the assumptions underlying models and their subsequent
limitations in organizational decision making.
Learning Objectives
Upon successful completion of the course, the probationer officers will be able to:

 Choose the appropriate quantitative method for decision making, wherever

required to address a given problem.
 Use the tools of quantitative analysis both with and without the required
software
 Solve quantitative problems by utilizing the decision-making techniques.
 Use a linear regression model on a given research question.
Course content
 Introduction of course, Participants
 Evidence based decision Making
 Data analysis and decision making
 Types of data: Metric data, Non metric Data
 Important definitions: Variable, attribute, dependent variables,
Extraneous variables
 The sources of data: Primary data, Secondary data
 Data Presentation through simple Graphs: Bar chart, Pie chart, Line Graphs
etc.
 Use of R software for constructing Graphs
 Data Presentation through Complex Graphs: Stem and Leaf Plot, Box Plot,
Pareto chart, Fish-Bone Diagram
 Use of R software for constructing Graphs
Course content

 Recognizing and avoiding misuses of Graphing summaries

 Data Presentation through measures of central tendency
 Concept of Measure of dispersion
 Use of R software for Measure of dispersion
 Application of Measure of dispersion in decision making
 Concept of Measure of Position
 Use of R software for Measure of Position
 Concept of correlation and association of variables
 Concept of Regression.
 Statistical Reasoning
 Introduction to Hypothesis testing
Some examples of the use of Quantitative Techniques
 Quantitative techniques were applied to the problem of transporting mentally
handicapped adults to a training center in the UK. As a result travel time could
be reduced by almost 16 per cent and distance travelled by 12 per cent.
 A quantitative model was developed to assist in the planning of transportation
of blood from a regional center to hospitals. The model generated a reduction
of over 12 per cent in the number of units of blood which had reached their
expiry date before use compared with the manual planning system.
 American Airlines has developed a number of quantitative models in relation
to its airline seat reservation systems. The models are estimated to contribute
around US$500 million per year to the company’s revenue.
 Hewlett-Packard used quantitative techniques to forecast capacity and to
determine locations of stocks and supplies in the context of one of its computer
printers. As a result, productivity increased by 50 per cent and incremental
revenues of US$280 million in sales were generated.
 A New Zealand utility company applied quantitative techniques to its car
pooling procedures with the result that the number of vehicles required was
reduced by 35 per cent, which generated annual savings of NZ$55 000
Session-1

 Topic: Evidence Based Decision Making

Evidence
 Evidence is anything presented in support of an assertion.
This support may be strong or weak. The strongest type of
evidence is that which provides direct proof of the truth of
an assertion.
Types of evidence
.
 Digital evidence
 Personal experience
 Testimonial
 Physical evidence
 Trace evidence
 Scientific evidence
Digital evidence
 Digital evidence is information stored in binary form
that may be relied on in court.
 It can be found on a computer hard drive, a mobile
phone, a personal digital assistant (PDA), a CD, and
a flash card in a digital camera
 Digital evidence is commonly associated with
electronic crime, or e-crime, such as child
pornography or credit card fraud.
 However, digital evidence is now used to prosecute
all types of crimes, not just e-crime.
Personal experience
 Personal experience is often used to support somebody’s
claims. They can include your own experiences, which is
called anecdotal evidence. Or, the experience can be
somebody else’s. This is called hearsay evidence. Both
anecdotal and hearsay evidence are sometimes unreliable.
For instance, with anecdotal evidence, how you
experienced something might be very different from
somebody else’s experience. Also, things like your emotions
or attitudes often ‘colour’ your experience. Hearsay
evidence is possibly even worse.
Testimonial
 In the law, testimony is a form of evidence that is obtained from a
witness who makes a solemn statement or declaration of
fact. Testimony may be oral or written, and it is usually made by
oath. Their expertise is in the examination of evidence or relevant
facts in the case.
Physical Evidence
 It is any material object that plays some role in the matter that
gave rise to the litigation, introduced as evidence in a judicial
proceeding (such as a trial) to prove a fact in issue based on the
object's physical characteristics.
Trace evidence.
 At a crime scene, there are often tiny fragments of
physical evidence such as hairs, fibers from clothing or carpeting,
or pieces of glass that can help to proof the crime.
Scientific evidence
 It is evidence which serves to either support a
scientific theory or hypothesis. Such evidence is
expected to be empirical evidence and interpretation in
accordance with scientific method.
 Evidence Based Decision Making

Decision making is considered as fundamental as:

 Breathing
 Essential for life,
 A natural and automatic process.
 Why we study?
 Why We Study?

Paul Goodwin and George Wright Explain why we Study:

 Research over the past 30 years has revealed numerous

ways in which the process of making decisions goes
wrong, usually without our knowing it.

 How decision analysis can be applied so that decisions are

made correctly.
 Evidence Based Decision-Making

 Evidence Based Decision-Making is a process

for making decisions about a program,
practice, or policy that deal with best
available research evidence and informed
by experiential evidence from the field and
relevant contextual evidence.
Framework for Thinking About Evidence
 The framework includes contributions from researchers and
practitioners to provide a more comprehensive view of
evidence that is appropriate and necessary for decision-
making.
The framework is composed of three dimensions:
 Best Available Research Evidence
 Contextual Evidence
 Experiential Evidence
Stages of the decision-making process
Gathering evidence:
 Seek out best available research evidence
 Collect contextual information on factors important for the decision
 Draw upon the expertise and knowledge of stakeholders
 Confirm that all information used as evidence is replicable,
observable, credible and verifiable.
Interpreting evidence:
 Consider the strength of the research evidence based on the
dimensions of the Continuum
 Explore the experience, preferences, and values of local
stakeholders
Applying what you learned from evidence

 Consider all three types of evidence to proof the assertion.

Characteristics of the Decision-making Process

 Transparency
 Inclusiveness/Participation
 Openness/Explicitness
 Skilled Leadership and Facilitation
 Defined process
The Six steps of Evidence-Based Decision Making
sr# Action Explanation
1 Transformation of (a) relevant patient characteristics and problem(s), (b)
the problem into 3 leading intervention, (c) alternative intervention, (d)
or 4 part question clinical outcomes or goals.

2 Additional step: Internal evidence: acquired knowledge through

answer to the professional training and experience (in general and
question based on applied to the patient). Should be documented before
“internal evidence” proceeding to step 3
only

3 Finding “external External evidence: obtained from textbooks, journals,

evidence” to databases, experts. The value of the external evidence
answer the question will be highly variable, see step 4.
Steps of evidence-based decision making

sr# Action Explanation

4 Critical appraisal of Should answer 3 questions: (1) Are the results valid?
the external (2) Are the results clinically important? (3) Do the
evidence results apply to my patient? (or is my patient so
different from those in the study that the results do
not apply?)
5 Integrating The 2 sources of information (external and internal)
external and may be supportive, non-supportive, or conflicting.
internal evidence How the decision is made when non-supportive or
conflicting will depend on multiple factors
6 Evaluation of Once the decision has been made, the process and the
decision making outcome are considered and opportunities for
process improvement are identified
Possible outcomes of decision Making

Decision

Accept Reject
Right claim Right decision Error (Type I)

Wrong Claim Error (Type II) Right Decision

Group activity (Time 10 minutes)

Do it in Pairs
 When you decide to join civil services?
 After how many attempts you got success?
 On the basis of which type of evidences you relied for decision
to join civil services.
 What factors motivated you to join civil services?
 Do you feel you are decisive and indecisive?
Note: Note down on page and submit separately with Name and CSID#
Home assignment –Individual
Write two page description on:
Evidence based decision Making, examples from your personal
life
 Thank You
Email:
abiodullah.ier@pu.edu.pk