1

CONCEPTS OF
PROBABILITY AND
STATISTICS HYDROLOGY
CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY 2

AND STATISTICS HYDROLOGY

4.1 Basic Probability Concepts & Probability Models

4.2 Return Period, Design Storms, & Design Turn Off

4.3 Regression & Correlation

4.4 Risks Estimation

BASIC PROBABILITY
CONCEPTS
Random Variable
demonstrates variability that isn't sufficiently explained by
physical processes

Connected Random & Deterministic Process

Probability
a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur

▫ Objective/Posterior Probabilities
- based on observation of random variable

▫ Subjective/Prior Probabilities
- based on judgment and experience
Probability
a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur
Stochastic
a family of random variables, random probability
Statistics
the analysis of events governed by probability
Statistical Analysis
deals with methods for drawing inferences about the
population based on examination of sample values from the
population
 7

SAMPLE SPACE
set of all possible
outcomes in the
POPULATION experiment

SAMPLE
 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: TWO BASIC SETS OF PROBLEMS

▫ Descriptive
- straightforward application of statistical methods
- requiring few decisions
- representing little risk

▫ Inferential
- entails decisions bearing some risk
- requires an understanding of the methods
- employed and the dangers involved in predicting and
estimating
 9

𝐸1 – an event
The laws of
probability underlie 𝑃(𝐸1 ) – probability of a single event
any study of the 𝑛1
statistical nature of
repeated
𝑃(𝐸1 ) =
N – number of trials
𝑁
observations or 𝑛1 – frequency
trials.
𝑛1
– relative frequency
𝑁
 RULES OF PROBABILITY (indicated by coin tossing)

o The probability of an event is nonnegative and never exceeds 1.

0 ≤ 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ) ≤ 1

o The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes in a single

trial is 1.
෍ 𝑷(𝑬 ) = 1
1
𝒊
 RULES OF PROBABILITY (indicated by coin tossing)

o The probability of a number of independent and mutually exclusive

events is the sum of the probabilities of the separate events.
𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∪ 𝑬𝟐 ) = 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )
 RULES OF PROBABILITY (indicated by coin tossing)
o The probability of two independent events occurring
simultaneously or in succession is the product of the individual
probabilities.
𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∩ 𝑬𝟐 ) = 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ) × 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )
 RULES OF PROBABILITY (indicated by coin tossing)

o The new, more general rule for the union of probabilities is,
𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∪ 𝑬𝟐 ) = 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 ) – 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∩ 𝑬𝟐 )

o Added for conditional probabilities,

𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∩ 𝑬𝟐 )
𝑷(𝑬𝟏 𝑬𝟐 =
𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )
Introduction to Hydrology
Viessman, W. & Lewis G.

Applied Hydrology
Chow, V., Maidment, D., & Mays, L.