NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

A negative binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution of a random variable 𝑋 that satisfies
the following conditions:
➢ A trial is repeated until the 𝑟 𝑡ℎ success occurs.
➢ The repeated trials are independent of each other.
➢ The probability of success 𝑝 is constant for each trial.
➢ The random variable 𝑋 represents the number of the trials needed until the 𝑟 𝑡ℎ success occurs.

Probability Mass Function

𝑥 − 1 𝑥−𝑟 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( )𝑞 𝑝
𝑟−1
where
𝑥 - is the number of trials required to produce 𝑟 successes
𝑟 – is the number of successes
𝑋 - is the random variable representing the number of trials required to produce 𝑟 successes
𝑝 – probability of success in a single trial
q – probability of failure in a single trial

Expectation
𝑟
𝜇 = 𝐸[𝑋] =
𝑝
Variance
𝑟(1 − 𝑝)
𝜎 2 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟[𝑋] =
𝑝2

PROBLEMS
1.) In an NBA (National Basketball Association) championship series, the team that wins four games out
of seven is the winner. Suppose that teams A and B face each other in the championship games and
that team A has probability 0.55 of winning a game over team B. What is the probability that team A
will win the series in 6 games?

2.) Bob is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter. That means his probability of
making a free throw is 0.70. During the season, what is the probability that Bob makes his third free
throw on his fifth shot?

3.) You are surveying people exiting from a polling booth and asking them if they voted independent.
The probability that a person voted independent is 20%. What is the probability that 15 people must
be asked before you can find 5 people who voted independent?

4.) You draw cards from a deck (with replacement) until you get four aces. What is the chance that you
will draw exactly 20 times?

5.) Each year the Akron Aardvarks have a 10% chance of winning the trophy in chinchilla grooming.
Their trophy case has space for five trophies. Let Y be the number of years until their case is full.
Find the mean and standard deviation of Y.

6.) You roll a die until you get four sixes (not necessarily consecutive). What is the mean and standard
deviation of the number of rolls you will make?

7.) Ten percent of applicants for a job possess the right skills. A company has three positions to fill, and
they interview applicants one at a time until they fill all three positions. What is the probability that
they will interview exactly ten applicants?
8.) An oil company conducts a geological study that indicates that an exploratory oil well should have a
20% chance of striking oil.
(a) What is the probability that the first strike comes on the third well drilled?
(b) What is the probability that the third strike comes on the seventh well drilled?
(c) What is the mean and variance of the number of wells that must be drilled if the oil company
wants to set up three producing wells?

9.) A large lot of tires contain 5% defectives. Four tires are to be chosen for a car.
(a) Find the probability that you find 2 defective tires before 4 good ones.
(b) Find the probability that you find at most 2 defective tires before 4 good ones.
(c) Find the mean and variance of the number of defective tires you find before finding 4 good
tires.

10.) The Minnesota Twins are having a bad year. Suppose their ability to win any one game is 42% and
games are independent of one another.
(a) What is the probability it takes 14 games for them to win their fourth game?
(b) What is the expected value and variance of the number of games it will take them to win their
fortieth game?