ACTIVITY - 10

Conditional Probability

OBJECTIVE
To explain the computation of conditional probabilities of a given event A, when event B has already
occurred through an example of throwing a pair of dice.
MATERIAL REQUIRED
▪ A drawing board
▪ A white paper sheet
▪ Board pins, pencil and scale
▪ A pair of dice

QUESTION
Find the conditional probability of an event A if an event B has already occurred: where event A is “a
number 4 is appearing on both the dice” and event B is the event “4 has appeared on at least one of the
dice” i.e. we are to find P(A/B)

METHOD OF CONSTRUCTION
1. Take a drawing board and place it on a table. Fix the white paper sheet on it with drawing pins.
2. Draw a big square of (6cm×6cm) size. Divided into 36 squares of size (1cm×1cm).
3. When we toss a pair of dice, 36 outcomes are 1,1;1,2;1, 3; write these pair of numbers in the 36
squares as shown in figure.

1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6

3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6

4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6

5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6

6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

DEMONSTRATION
1. We are tossing a pair of dice. It’s all possible outcomes have been shown in figure. Hence this figure
represents the sample space of the experiment of throwing a dice once.
2. We are given event A if an event B has already occurred: where event A is “a number 4 is appearing on
both the dice” and event B is the event “4 has appeared on at least one of the dice”
i.e. we are to find P(A/B)
3. Number outcomes favourable to A is only one i.e. (4,4) shade it.
4. Number outcomes favourable to B are (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6) shade it.
5. (a) Hence number of outcomes favourable to event A=1
(b) Number of outcomes favourable to event B=11
 (c) Number of outcomes favourable to event A  B =the double shaded outcome (4,4)=1
(d) Total number of outcomes=36
(e) n(A) = 1, n(B) = 11, n(A  B) = 1, n(S) = 36
n(B) 11
6. (a) P(B) = =
n(S) 36
n(A  B) 1
(b) P(A  B) = =
n(S) 36
1
P(A  B) 36 1
(c) P(A /B) = = =
P(S) 11 11
36
OBSERVATION
1. Outcome favourable to event A =1, n(A)=1
2. Outcome favourable to event B =11, n(B)=11
3. Outcome favourable to event A  B =1,n( A  B )=1
1
4. P( A  B )=
36
P(A  B) 1
5. P(A/B)= =
P(B) 11
APPLICATION
This activity explains the concept of conditional activity because when we shade the outcomes of event A
and event B, the common shaded area gives us outcomes of A  B .