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Probability

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Probability
• Allows us to quantify the variability in
the outcome of any experiment whose
exact outcome cannot be predicted
with certainty
• The measure of the likelihood that
an event will occur.

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Probability
• Is the measure of how likely an event
is to occur.
2 Components of Probability
1. Sample Space
2. Outcome

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Probability
1. Sample Space(S)- is a set of
elements where all the
possibilities that can occur.
2. Outcome- All the possible
outcome; Choices, other
possibilities.

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Probability
Example
1. What is the probability of getting
head when flipping a coin?
2. When a single dice is thrown, What
is the probability that one of the side
will occur?

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Probability
Example
3. When a single dice is thrown, What
is the probability that number 4 side
will occur?

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Use of “OR” & “AND” in Probability
• The word “And” in probability means
the intersection of two events.
• The word “or” in probability means the
union of two events.

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Probability
Example
4. When a single dice is thrown, What
is the probability that number 4 and
number 5 side will occur?

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Probability
Example
5. What is the probability that you roll
an even number and a number
greater than 3?

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Probability
Example
6. What is the probability that you roll
an even or a number greater than 3?

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7. What is the probability that you can
choose a red marble?
8. What is the probability that you will
not select the red marble?

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VENN DIAGRAM
• uses overlapping circles or other shapes to illustrate the
logical relationships between two or more sets of items.
Often, they serve to graphically organize things, highlighting
how the items are similar and different.

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Bayes Theorem
• Describes the probability of an event based on prior
knowledge of conditions that might be related to an event

• Way of finding a probability when we know certain

other probabilities

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Ex. 1.)Grilling a barbecue. If dangerous fire is rare (1%),but
smoke is fairly common with a probability of 10% due to grilling
of barbecue, and 90% of dangerous fires make smoke, then
what is the probability of fire when we can see smoke?

2.) You are planning a picnic today, But morning is cloudy.

Based on the data, 50% of all rainy day start of cloudy but
cloudy mornings are common. About 40% of days start cloudy.
In dry month 3 of 30 tend to be rainy. What is the chance of rain
during the day?

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Probability Matrix
• Display the marginal probabilities and the intersection
probabilities if a given problem

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Ex. Yankelovich Partners conducted a survey for the American Society of
Interior Designers in which workers were asked which changes in office
design would increase productivity. Respondents were allowed to answer
more than one type of design change. The number one change that 70% of
the workers said would increase productivity was reducing noise.In second
place was more storage/filing space,selected by 67%.If one of the survey
respondents was randomly selected and asked what office design changes
would increase worker productivity, what is the probability that this person
would select reducing noise or more storage/filing space?

Suppose 56% of all respondents to the survey had said that both noise
reduction and increased storage/filing space would improve productivity:

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ACTIVITY:
Provide a four (1 peso coin)

1.) For three (1 peso coin), Determine the average probability that you
will get a head in (a)10 tries (b)15 tries, in flipping a coin

2.) For four (1 peso coin), Determine the average probability that you will
get a tail in (a)10 tries (b) 15 tries, in flipping a coin

3.) What is the probability of picking up an ace or a king in a 52 deck of

cards?

4.) What is the probability of picking up a queen and a diamond?

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