TECHNOLOGY

FORECASTING &
ASSESSMENT
 TFA COURSE - FRAMEWORK

• Understand Technology Forecasting as a Process

• Process is a series of steps with an outcome
• There are techniques and methodologies used in
the context
• Providing inputs on Technology Assessment
• Conducting a capability assessment of business
units
• In the context of Technology Search and
Acquisition.
• Technology means a number of technologies, is
plural. Technological is singular, pertaining to a
specific technology.
• A TLC is a summation of all its sub TLC”s ; eg a
TLC of a laptop is dependent on the TLC of its
parts/ components like screen, mother board,
battery, KB, ports, etc.
 DEFINITION OF TFC

• Forecasting provides visions of the future that can

be used to guide actions of the present in
anticipation of future states.
• TFC is based on following :
• 1. Established methodologies
• 2. To forecast the character & role of
technological advancement.
 FORECASTING METHODS

. Quantitative methods – based on data and

information, statistical, mathematical models,
graphs, curves, eg – Sales data, Shares trends,
Weather forecasting, Economic forecasts like
GDP, Per capita , etc.
• Qualitative data is based on thought
process, intuition, Judgemental, Subjective.
Eg Experts opinion.
• Technological forecasting is also called
Qualitative forecasting.
FORECASTING AS AN INPUT TO TM

• TFC – Technology Forecasting

• First step in Technology Planning is Technology
Forecasting.
• The entire process of TM starts with Technology
forecasting.
• If TFC is faulty or is not the right technology, the
entire ETM will be affected, huge losses.
• TFC inputs  Process, Methods  Forecast

• Tools,
• Authentic data
PLANNING FUTURE RESEARCH