Erlang–SEIR Model for

the COVID-19 Epidemic

COMSOL
Content

 Models:
SEIR
Erlang–SEIR
 Höhle
Flattening the curve
 China locks down
 Swedes keep distance
 The US in quarantine
 The app
Models
 Compartments and variables for
individuals in each compartment:
S = susceptible
E = exposed
SEIR
I = infectious
R = recovered
D = dead

 Erlang–SEIR:
Models a distribution in time of
individuals in different states
Can account for inflow of exposed
or infectious individuals at Erlang-SEIR

different stages of the disease

Models
 Variables:
S = susceptible
E = exposed
I = infectious
R = recovered SEIR
D = dead

 Rate coefficients or functions

between the different states
b = transmission rate (day-1)
e = rate from E to I (day-1)
g = rate away from I to R (day-1)
a = rate to D due to disease (day-1)
Erlang–SEIR
m = rate, natural death (day-1)
l = inflow of newborns (individs)
Model Equations
Equation for S: Equation for R: Relations:

dS  dR R0 Reproduction
  SI  I number
dt N dt
Days in
nid infectious state
Equation for E: Equation for D:

dE  dD R0
 SI  E  I  Transmission
dt N dt nid rate

Equation for I: Initial conditions required

for all variables: 1
dI  Rate from
 E  I  I S 0 , E 0 , I 0 , R 0 , D0 nid infectious state
dt
Flattening the Curve
 Verification using Höhle’s results
 Two cases:
Case 1: no social distancing Infectious per day

Case 2:
• Social distancing
R = 0.6R0 for 5 weeks
• Followed by:
R = 0.8R0; after 5 weeks
Case 2 reduces the number
infected ratio of the population:
• 85% for case 1
• 68% for case 2

Progress of
the epidemic
 Conclusion
Flattening the curve not only buys time, for example to
prepare hospitals, but also reduces the total number of
people who get infected during the epidemic
Parameter
Estimation
 Parameter estimation:
Deaths, most reliable data
First step: exponential growth
Second step: restrictions
Output parameters:
• Reproduction number, R0
• Transmission rate, b
• Mean residence time in state E
• Mean rate in E, e

 Impact of restrictions:
Progress of the epidemic
Reduces R0 by a factor < 1
China Locks Down
 Parameter estimation:
R0: 3.03
b: 1.01 (day-1) Simulated and
reported deaths
Mean residence time E: 3.00 (day)
Mean rate in E, e: 3.33 (day-1)

 Impact of restrictions:
Date for restrictions, Jan. 23
Reproduction number R = 0.185R0
Onset of restrictions: Jan. 23

Progress of
the epidemic
Swedes Keep
Distance
 Parameter estimation:
R0: 2.95
b: 0.98 (day-1) Simulated and
reported deaths
Mean residence time E: 3.68 (day)
Mean rate in E, e: 2.71 (day-1)

 Impact of restrictions:
Reduces R0:
• Case 1, R = 1.03
• Case 2, R = 0.88
Onset of restrictions: March 20
Progress of
the epidemic
The U.S. in
Quarantine
 Parameter estimation:
R0: 2.97
b: 0.99 (day-1) Simulated and
reported deaths
Mean residence time E: 3.68 (day)
Mean rate in E, e: 3.41 (day-1)

 Impact of restrictions:
Reduces R0:
• Case 1, R = 0.89
• Case 2, R = 0.55
Onset of restrictions: March 20
Progress of
the epidemic
 Conclusion
Social distancing and restrictions in social interaction result
in fewer infected and fewer deaths
However, this makes the population more susceptible for
the next outbreak so we have to be vigilant
 Run parameter
2
estimation

The App
 Parameter estimation:
Load accumulated deaths as
function of time
Enter estimates as starting guess

 Simulation
Use estimated parameters as
input or…
Run simulations by entering your
own parameters

1 Load your own data

 2 Run simulation

The App
 Parameter estimation:
Load accumulated deaths as
function of time
Enter estimates as starting guess

 Simulation
Use estimated parameters as
input or…
Run simulations by entering your
own parameters

Enter own parameters or get

1
them from parameter estimation