Statistical Modelling

Relationships

Distributions
Modelling Process
IDENTIFICATION  
 
ESTIMATION  
 ITERATION
VALIDATION  
 
APPLICATION  
 Relationships
• Simple Regression Models
• Multiple Regression Models
• Logistic Regression Models
• Other functional Models
• Lagged Models
 Simple Regression
• Assumes one variable (x) relates to
another (y)
• Assumes errors cancel out
• Assumes errors have constant variance
• Assumes errors are independent of
each other
• Assumes errors are normally distributed
(for testing theories)
 Multiple Regression
• Assumes several variables (xi) relates to
another (y)
• Assumes errors cancel out
• Assumes errors have constant variance
• Assumes errors are independent of each
other
• Assumes xi are independent of one another
• Assumes errors are normally distributed
(for testing theories)
 Logistic Regression
• Like multiple regression but variable to
be predicted (y) is binary.
• Estimates odds and log odds rather
than direct effects.
 Other Models
Could be almost anything, common ones
are:
• Log of (some) variables
• Polynomials
• Trignometric
• Power functions
 Lagged Models
Usually associated with time series data
• Assume carry-over effects
• Carry-over of variable
• Carry-over of error
• Tend to use simple forms
 Distribution Models
• Discrete

• Continuous
 Discrete Distributions
UNIFORM

• Equal chance of each and every

outcome
• Often a starting hypothesis
 Discrete Distributions
BINOMIAL

• n trials
• Equal chance of success in each trial
(p)
• Gives probability of r successes in n
trials
 Discrete Distributions
POISSON

• Random events
• Fixed average (mean) rate
• Gives probability that r events will occur
in a fixed time, distance, space etc
 Discrete Distributions
GEOMETRIC

• Constant probability of success (p)

• Gives probability of r trials before first
success
 Continuous Distributions
UNIFORM

• Constant density of probability for all

measurement values
• Limited range of possible values
 Continuous Distributions
NORMAL

• Commonest distribution assumption

• Intuitive
• Characterised by two parameters, mean
and standard deviation
• Arises from a number of theoretical
perspectives
 Continuous Distributions
EXPONENTIAL

• Complementary to Poisson
• Assumes events occur randomly, at
fixed mean rate
• Gives probability density for time,
distance, space etc until event occurs
 Continuous Distributions
EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS

• Weibull
• Double exponential
• Gumbel (or Extreme Value)