Marine Fishery Advisory

Services (MFAS)
MFAS Team
RAC 11th Meting
Feb 28, 2017
PFZ and Tuna PFZ advisories • PFZ and Tuna PFZ advisories dissemination
continued seamlessly
• A total period of 265 days (excl. 60 days of
monsoonal fishing ban)
• Site-surveys for next-generation EDBs
completed for east coast & West Coast
• Designing of framework for IDS (Integrated
Dissemination System) in progress
• Dissemination Strategy Meeting was held at
INCOIS, Hyderabad on September 28, 2016
with all stakeholders
• User Interaction Workshops organized at
Mangalore (4th Nov.) and at Maple (18th
Jan.)

PFZ/Tuna PFZ
emails, SMS and
PFZ fax
 Satellite Telemetry of Tuna (SATTUNA)
• Completed tagging 23 YFT with 2nd Gen PSATS
• More 15 will be tagged by end of March, 2017
• Focus on NE Arabian Sea, other tuna species/marlin etc
• INCOIS scientist to join tagging cruise
A recent Nature report shown loss in world ocean DO up to 2% in last 50
years and hypothesed its impact on large predators. ESSO-INCOIS SATTUNA
experiments have yielded first evidences towards the same.

Tuna Habitat Suitability Modelling

Classification tree for Yellow fin tuna.

Pairplot of Yellow fin tuna (Thunnus albacares) & selected explanatory If a statement is true, follow the left branch. Numbers
variables. The lower diagonal panels contain (absolute) correlations. at the end of a branch are the predicted group (1 =
The font size is proportional to the value. The upper diagonal panels presence, 0 = absence) and the classifications per
show the pair-wise scatterplots. A smoothing line was added. group. This will be used in Habitat Suitability Model.
 Oil Sardine predictive capabilities (NOAA-MoES collaboration)
• Oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps) identified as research focus between NOAA, INCOIS and CMLRE
• Kerala: major share of fishery, near and offshore regions for satellite data identified (a,b)
• Various parameters tested at different time-lags, for its influence to the landings (c)
• Combination of important parameters at appropriate lag gives breakthrough in predictions (d)
• Next efforts will focus in adding complexity (e.g. effort) in the catch variability
• Outcome: forecast for up to two years in advance (e), useful for govt., industry, researchers

Param: SSHa & Chl, Boxes #4 and #13

(d)
(b) Lag: 2 y in the past, Correlation: 0.7
(multiple regression model for
(a)
predictions)

(c)
SST UPW

Adj. R2
(e)
SSH CHL

Adj. R2

No. of quarters before landings Exponential smoothening

model for forecast
Hilsa shad predictive capabilities: Challenges

• High commercial value & over harvested

• Highly migratory & anadromous species
• Mostly targeted during monsoon, when they
are near coast/estuary for breeding
• High inter-annual variability
• Prediction need to be developed in quantitave
approach and should be sustainable in nature
• Service on Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)
& efforts are essential for policy makers
Life Cycle
 Chl has no
Chl is important impact on
for growth & Ecological Indicators breeding
nourishment migration

Salinity
depletion due to
monsoon &
wind direction
have strong
In-situ impact
observations are
Chl is important
important for
for larval rearing
monitoring
and successful
spawning and
recruitment
rearing grounds
 Salinity Phytoplankton

Wind Direction

As the monsoon intensifies

from June- September, it leads
to the salinity depletion leading
Hilsa to migrate upward.
Spawning/rearing ground monitoring
Impact of Lunar Phases
 Stock Assessment Hilsa Service
MSY and Effort related
service based on Stock
assessment for the policy
makers

Long-term quantitative
stock prediction based on
ecological indicators

From 2002 to 2014 average effort (no. of boats)

increased 12.59%, while average Hilsa catch
decreased 18.32% (when high Hilsa catch of 2010 Short-term quantitative
is ignored) during this period stock prediction based on
Exploitation rate is 0.62, i.e. greater than lunar phases
sustainable limits (0.5)
 Towards Mariculture Advisory Services (MAS)
• Suitability classes for Mariculture (Open Sea
Cage Culture) were derived for each month and
for across the Indian EEZ, documented in the
Mariculture Site Suitability Atlas.
• The classes were determined considering
bathymetry as base parameter (constraint) and
while checking suitability of other oceanographic
parameters (total 6).
• This provides combination of only two
variables leading to least suitability.
• In ascending manner (two to six), maximum
possible suitability of all the six parameters
derives highest site suitability.
• Further, parameter-wise suitability is also
included so that user can take decision if non-
suitable parameter (e.g. SST here) is an
important enough to influence site selection
decision. Freedom for case-based choices.
• A primary meeting with NIOT team working
toward same was held in Apr, 2016.
• Further consultations and collaboration aimed.
MFAS Action Plan 2017-18
• Operationally generate and disseminate the PFZ advisories with a target of 300 advisories
for 2017-18.

• Explore possibilities to harness geostationary satellite data to overcome cloud cover

• Operational inclusion of SSH for PFZ and ‘3D’ Tuna Advisories (presently beta rollout for
tuna PFZ, since post-monsoon 2015).

• Work further towards a DSS service for Mariculture Advisory Service (MAS).

• R & D activities for improving PFZ Advisories and Species-Specific Advisories.

• Continuation of Fish Tagging Experiments, extend the experience to other species,

acoustic tags.

• R & D activities towards modeling (incl. PP, Eco-system & ANN).

• Enhance the awareness campaigns, user base and delivery chain.

• Design, Development and Installation of new Electronic Display Boards.

• Development of Integrated Dissemination System for all INCOIS Services.