Probability with the Fundamental

Counting Principle, Permutations,

and Combinations
Example Probability and Permutations

Five groups in a tour, Offspring, Pink Floyd,

Sublime, the Rolling Stones, and the Beatles,
agree to determine the order of performance based
on a random selection. Each band’s name is
written on one of five cards. The cards are placed
in a hat and then five cards are drawn out, one at a
time. The order in which the cards are drawn
determines the order in which the bands perform.
What is the probability of the Rolling Stones
performing fourth and the Beatles last?
 Solution
We begin by applying the definition of
probability to this situation.
P(Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last) =
(permutations with Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last)
(total number of possible permutations)
We can use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find
the total number of possible permutations.
5  4  3  2  1 = 120
 Solution cont.
We can also use the Fundamental Counting Principle to
find the number of permutations with the Rolling Stones
performing fourth and the Beatles performing last. You
can choose any one of the three groups as the opening
act. This leaves two choices for the second group to
perform, and only one choice for the third group to
perform. Then we have one choice for fourth and last.
32111=6
There are six lineups with Rolling Stones fourth and
Beatles last.
 Solution cont.
Now we can return to our probability fraction.
P(Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last) =
(permutations with Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last)
(total number of possible permutations)
= 6/120 = 1/20
The probability of the Rolling Stones
performing fourth and the Beatles last is
1/20.
 Example Probability and Combinations

A club consists of five men and seven

women. Three members are selected at
random to attend a conference. Find the
probability that the selected group consists
of:
a. three men.
b. one man and two women.
 Solution
We begin with the probability of selecting
three men.
P( 3 men)=number of ways of selecting 3 men
total number of possible combinations
12C3 = 12!/((12-3)!3!) = 220

C3 = 5!/((5-3)!(3!)) = 10
5

P(3 men) = 10/220 = 1/22

 Solution part b
We set up the fraction for the probability that
the selected group consists of one man and
two women. P(1 man and 2 women) =
number of ways of selecting 1 man and 2 women
total number of possible combinations
We know the denominator is 12C3 = 220.
Next we move to the numerator of the
probability fraction.
 Solution part b cont.
The number of ways of selecting r = 1 man
from n = 5 men is
5C1 = 5!/(((5-1)!1!) = 5

The number of ways of selecting r = 2 women

from n=7 women is
7C2 = 7!/((7-2)!2!) = 21
 Solution part b cont.
By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the number
of ways of selecting 1 man and 2 women is
5 C1  7C2 = 5  21 = 105
Now we can fill in the numbers in our probability
fraction. P(1 man and 2 women) =
number of ways of selecting 1 man and 2 women
total number of possible combinations
= 105/220 = 21/44