Professional Documents
Culture Documents
and
Forecasting
Demand Management
Independent Demand:
Finished Goods
Dependent Demand:
A Raw Materials,
Component parts,
Sub-assemblies, etc.
B(4) C(2)
Types of Forecasts
• Qualitative (Judgmental)
• Quantitative
– Time Series Analysis
– Causal Relationships
– Simulation
Qualitative Methods
Question:
Question:What
Whatisisthe
the
33week
weekmoving
moving
Week Demand average
averageforecast
forecastfor
for
1 820 this
thisdata?
data?
2 775
Assume
Assumeyouyouonly
onlyhave
have
3 680
4 655
33weeks
weeksand
and55
5 620 weeks
weeksofofactual
actual
6 600 demand
demanddata
datafor
for
7 575 the
therespective
respective
forecasts
forecasts
15-10
While
Whilethe themoving
movingaverage
averageformula
formulaimplies
impliesan
anequal
equalweight
weightbeing
beingplaced
placedon
oneach
eachvalue
value
that
thatisisbeing
beingaveraged,
averaged,the
theweighted
weightedmoving
movingaverage
averagepermits
permitsan
anunequal
unequalweighting
weightingon
on
prior
priortime
timeperiods
periods
The
Theformula
formulafor
forthe
themoving
movingaverage
averageis:
is:
Question:
Question:Given
Giventhetheweekly
weeklydemand
demandand
andweights,
weights,what
whatisis
the
theforecast
forecastfor
forthe
the44thperiod
th
periodor
orWeek
Week4?
4?
Week Demand
Weights:
1 650
2 678 t-1 .5
3 720 t-2 .3
4 t-3 .2
Note
Notethat
thatthe
theweights
weightsplace
placemore
moreemphasis
emphasison
onthe
the
most
mostrecent
recentdata,
data,that
thatisistime
timeperiod
period“t-1”
“t-1”
15-13
F4 = 0.5(720)+0.3(678)+0.2(650)=693.4
15-14
Question:
Question:GivenGiventhe theweekly
weeklydemand
demandinformation
informationand
and
weights,
weights,what whatisisthe
theweighted
weightedmoving
movingaverage
averageforecast
forecast
of
ofthe
the55 period
thth
periodor orweek?
week?
F5 = (0.1)(755)+(0.2)(680)+(0.7)(655)= 672
15-16
FFtt == FFt-1
t-1
+
+ a(A
a(A t-1
t-1
-
- F
F )
t-1)
t-1
Where :
Ft Forcast value for the coming t time period
Ft - 1 Forecast v alue in 1 past time period
At - 1 Actual occurance in the past t tim e period
Alpha smoothing constant
• Premise: The most recent observations might have the
highest predictive value
• Therefore, we should give more weight to the more
recent time periods when forecasting
15-17
Answer:
Answer:The
Therespective
respectivealphas
alphascolumns
columnsdenote
denotethe
theforecast
forecastvalues.
values. Note
Note
that
thatyou
youcan
canonly
onlyforecast
forecastone
onetime
timeperiod
periodinto
intothe
thefuture.
future.
F1=820+(0.5)(820-820)=820 F3=820+(0.5)(775-820)=797.75
n
1 MAD 0.8 standard deviation
A
t=1
t - Ft
1 standard deviation 1.25 MAD
MAD =
n
Question:
Question: What
What isis the
the MAD
MAD value
value given
given
the
the forecast
forecast values
values inin the
the table
table below?
below?
40
n
Note
Notethat
thatby
byitself,
itself,the
theMAD
A
t=1
t - Ft
40 only
onlylets
letsus
usknow
knowthe
MAD
themean
mean
MAD = = = 10 error
errorininaaset
setof
offorecasts
forecasts
n 4
15-24
The
Thesimple
simplelinear
linearregression
regression Y
model
modelseeks
seeksto
tofit
fitaaline
line
through
throughvarious
variousdata
dataover
over
time
a
time
0 1 2 3 4 5 x (Time)
Yt = a + bx Is
Isthe
thelinear
linearregression
regressionmodel
model
a = y - bx
xy - n(y)(x)
b= 2 2
x - n(x )
15-26
Question:
Question:Given
Giventhe
thedata
databelow,
below,what
whatisisthe
thesimple
simplelinear
linear
regression
regressionmodel
modelthat
thatcan
canbe
beused
usedto
topredict
predictsales
salesin
infuture
future
weeks?
weeks?
Week Sales
1 150
2 157
3 162
4 166
5 177