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a= -1.31730529 b= 1.0943652
logc logy
1.39794001 2.477121255
1.41497335 2.505149978 antilog a = 0.0048160912
1.43136376 2.505149978
1.41497335 2.51851394
1.46239800 2.531478917
420
1.49136169
1.47712125
2.556302501
2.568201724
iy=
√
9
300
−1=0 . 038093444
420
1.53147892 2.579783597
iy=
√
9
300
−1=0 . 038093444
1.54406804 2.602059991 1
1.53147892 2.62324929 Y 97 =420 [ 1+0.038093444 ]
1997 35.4199153893 435.9992448
1998 36.8991295681 452.6079559
1999 38.4401190158 469.8493499
2000 40.0454635982 487.7475279
∑ Y ) ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ X )( ∑ XY )
2
N ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ X )
( ∑ XY ) −( ∑ X ) ( ∑ Y )
2 2
N ( ∑ X )−( ∑ X )
YPROM −bXPROM
XY Y
2
0
−1=0 . 038093444 1. 0943652
0 yT
C97 =34
[ ]
y0
0
−1=0 . 038093444 1. 0943652
0 yT
420 [ 1+0. 038093444 ]
1 C97 =34
[ ]
y0
función
1.3935698
1.42424346
1.42424346
Eviews
1.3935699513
1.4242436096
1.4242436096
1.43886851 1.4388686641
1.45305693 1.4530570834
1.48022299 1.4802231491
1.49324508 1.4932452444
y x
CONS PESCADOCARNE INGRESO
AÑO P/HABIT logy P/HABIT logx
1997 50 1.69897000 600 2.77815125
1998 52 1.71600334 640 2.80617997
1999 57 1.75587486 645 2.80955971
2000 50 1.69897000 660 2.81954394
2001 63 1.79934055 680 2.83250891
2002 48 1.68124124 690 2.83884909
2003 46 1.66275783 700 2.84509804
2004 76 1.88081359 780 2.89209460
2005 82 1.91381385 790 2.89762709
2006 85 1.92941893 795 2.90036713
0.00018684
t-Statistic Prob.
0,00018684 Y 1 , 9360514
-2,644,279 0.0295
3,902,591 0.0045
t-Statistic Prob.
-2,644,279 0.0295
3,902,591 0.0045
Mean dependent var 1,773,720
S.D. dependent var 0.100931
F-statistic 1,523,021
Prob(F-statistic) 0.004528
años demanda
año x Y Y cuadrado xy
1987 -5 10 ls y c x $b 100.00 -50
1988 -4 20 400 -80 proyección
1989 -3 30 900 -90 1998
1990 -2 45 2025 -90 1999
1991 -1 70 4900 -70 2000
1992 0 90 8100 0 2001
1993 1 125 15625 125 2002
1994 2 150 22500 300 2003
1995 3 180 32400 540 2004
1996 4 220 48400 880 2005
1997 5 270 72900 1350
1210 208250 2815
METODOS DE PROYECCION DE MERCADO
1. EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO TOTAL
EJERCICIO 1 7 7
X Y X x CUADR XY
AÑO CONSUMO AÑO
1 4.8 1 1.00 4.80
2 5.6 2 4.00 11.20
3 6.5 3 9.00 19.50
4 7.3 4 16.00 29.20
5 8.1 5 25.00 40.50
6 8.5 6 36.00 51.00
7 9.1 7 49.00 63.70
8 9.8 8 64.00 78.40
9 10.4 9 81.00 93.60
10 11.9 10 100.00 119.00
82.00000000 55.00000000 385.00 510.90
y PROMEDIO 8.20000000 5.50000000
a= 4.20666667 b= 0.7260606 a=
X Y
AÑO CONSUMO
1 4.8
2 5.6
3 6.5
4 7.3
5 8.1
6 8.5
7 9.1
8 9.8
9 10.4
10 11.9
EXTRAPOLACION EXPONENCIAL
n Cn
Q n =Q 0 ( 1+ i ) i=
√
n−1
C0
−1
n−1 115,2
i=
√ 66,6
−1=0,056
10
Q2010 =115 ,2(1+0,056) =198 ,60
3. PRACTICA población CONSUMO
CONSUMO TOTAL EN EL AÑO 2000 170
POBLACION 2000 38.500
TASA HISTORICA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBL 2.2
TASA DE CREC EN EL PERIODO DE PROY. 2.6
TSA DE CREC DEL CONSUMO GLOBAL 5.8
RESOLUCION
DEMANDA POR HABIT 2000 4.42
TASA HIST DE CREC DEL CONS POR HABIT iq 360.00%
calculo del consumo por habitante 2001 4.574545454545 39.501 180.70
calculo del consumo por habitante 2002 4.739229090909 40.528 192.07
calculo del consumo por habitante 2003 4.909841338182 41.582 204.16
AÑO CONS
Se= 18.593871003
demanda Intervalos
6 263.54546 226.34546 300.74546
7 289.13637 252.34546 326.74546
8
9
10
2
153,147,891,704,226 ###
CONSUMO
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:39
Sample: 1987 1997 ( ∑ Y ) (∑ X
a=
Included observations: 11
N (∑
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
a=YPROM−bXPROM
2
r2=
[ N (∑ XY )−(∑ X )(∑ Y ) ]
2 2
[ N ∑ X −(∑ X ) ][ N ∑ Y −(∑ Y ) ]
2 2
2.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA
demanda
año Y
1987 15
Time: 15:50 1988 26
1989 34
1990 42
1991 65
Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 1992 86
1993 98
10.48836 -1.711854 0.1211 1994 105
1.772857 14.43484 0 1995 120
AÑO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
AÑO CONS
Dependent Variable: CONS 1987 654,545,454,268
Method: Least Squares 1988 217,090,909,069
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:37 1989 368,727,272,711
Sample: 1987 1997 1990 520,363,636,353
Included observations: 11 1991 671,999,999,994
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 1992 823,636,363,636
C -30123.60 1,389,362 -2,168,160 0.0000 1993 975,272,727,278
X 15.16364 0.697470 2,174,091 0.0000 1994 112,690,909,092
R-squared 0.981315 Mean dependent var 8,236,364 1995 127,854,545,456
Adjusted R- 0.979239 S.D. dependent var 5,076,864 1996 14,301,818,182
squared
S.E. of 7.315129 Akaike info criterion 6,980,732 1997 158,181,818,185
regression
Sum 4,816,000 Schwarz criterion 7,053,077 1998 173,345,454,549
squared
resid
CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2
CONS CONSF CONSFSM RESID X XSM
15 654,545,454,268 654,545,454,268 845,454,545,732 1987 1987
26 217,090,909,069 217,090,909,069 429,090,909,313 1988 1988
34 368,727,272,711 368,727,272,711 -287,272,727,106 1989 1989
42 520,363,636,353 520,363,636,353 -100,363,636,353 1990 1990
65 671,999,999,994 671,999,999,994 -219,999,999,944 1991 1991
86 823,636,363,636 823,636,363,636 363,636,363,636 1992 1992
98 975,272,727,278 975,272,727,278 0.472727272176 1993 1993
105 112,690,909,092 112,690,909,092 -769,090,909,202 1994 1994
120 127,854,545,456 127,854,545,456 -785,454,545,621 1995 1995
145 14,301,818,182 14,301,818,182 19,818,181,796 1996 1996
170 158,181,818,185 158,181,818,185 118,181,818,154 1997 1997
173.345 1998
AÑO CONS
Se= 7.315129
demanda Intervalos
1998 173.345 159.007802 187.683107
1999 #REF! #REF! #REF!
2000 #REF! #REF! #REF!
EJERC HECTOR
años demanda
año Años X demanda Y X Y cuadrado xy
1987 -5 10 -5 $b 100.00 - 50.00
1988 -4 20 -4 400 - 80.00
1.4149733 2.50515
1.4313638 2.50515
1.4149733 2.51851
1.4623980 2.53148
1.4913617 2.55630
1.4771213 2.56820
1.5314789 2.57978
1.5440680 2.60206
1.5314789 2.62325
2001 11 118.714554
2002 12 122.660918
2003 13 126.607282
2004 14 130.553646
2005 15 134.50001
Y cuadrado XY AÑO AÑO CONSUMO
4435.56 -333 1990 -5 66.6
7208.01 -339.6 1991 -4 84.9
7849.96 -265.8 1992 -3 88.6
6084 -156 1993 -2 78
9370.24 -96.8 1994 -1 96.8
11067.04 0 1995 0 105.2
8686.24 93.2 1996 1 93.2
12454.56 223.2 1997 2 111.6
7796.89 264.9 1998 3 88.3
13689 468 1999 4 117
13271.04 576 2000 5 115.2
101912.54 434.1 proyeccion 1045.4
2001 6 118.714544
2002 7 122.660908
2003 8 126.607272
2004 9 130.553636
2005 10 134.5
Se= 94.26807151111
AÑO CONSUMO
1990 66.6
1991 84.9
1992 88.6
1993 78
1994 96.8
1995 105.2
1996 93.2
1997 111.6
1998 88.3
1999 117
2000 115.2
proyeccion
2001 118.715364
2002 122.661728
2003 126.608092
2004 130.554456
2005 134.50082
x cuadrado xy AÑO CONS
$b 25.00 -50 Se= 18.593871
$b 16.00 -80 proyección demanda Intervalos
1.4149733 2.50515 Date: 10/19/07 Time: 15:45
1.4313638 2.50515 a=
(N
∑ Y ) (∑
(∑ 2
XYX) − (∑
)−( ∑ XX))(( ∑
Sample:
Y
∑1990a=YPROM−bXPRO
XY )
)1999
b= 22
1.4149733
1.4623980
2.51851
2.53148
NN( ∑( ∑XX22))− −(Included
∑ XX) )observations: 10
∑
1.4913617 2.55630 Variable Coefficient
1.4771213 2.56820
1.5314789 2.57978 C -1.317305
1.5440680 2.60206 Y 1.094365
1.5314789 2.62325
R-squared 0.904168
Adjusted R-s 0.892189
S.E. of regre 0.017767
Sum squared 0.002525
Log likelihood 27.23062
Durbin-Watson 2.544027
Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
Mean dependent var 1.469716 R-squared 0.903048 Mean dependent var 1,469,200
S.D. dependent var 0.05411 Adjusted R-s 0.890929 S.D. dependent var 0.054352
Akaike info criterion -5.046124 S.E. of regre 0.017950 Akaike info criterion -5,025,560
Schwarz criterion -4.985607 Sum squared 0.002578 Schwarz criterion -4,965,043
F-statistic 75.47907 Log likelihood 2,712,780 F-statistic 7,451,528
Prob(F-statistic) 2.4E-05 Durbin-Watson 2,539,184 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000025
EJERC HECTOR
años demanda
año x Y
III PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA CONSIDERANDO LOS EFECTOS DEL CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION Y LA INF
DEL CONSUMO POR HABITANTE DE LOS CAMBIOS EN LOS INGRESOS EN LOS PRECIOS O AMBOS SIMULTANEA
REGRESION MULTIPLE
datos INGRESO
1 57
2 59
3 49
4 62
5 51
t-Statistic Prob. 6 50
7 55
0.225832 0.8264 8 48
1,892,136 0.0910 9 52
1,065,098 0.3146 10 42
11 61
Mean dependent var 6,275,000 12 57
S.D. dependent var 8,986,100
Akaike info criterion 6,409,322
Schwarz criterion 6,530,549
1,094,027
Prob(F-statistic) 0.003895
ESTRATOS
INGRESO ESTRATO 1
PONDERADO ELASTICIDAD FRXELAST
ESTRATOS
ESTRATO 1
ESTRATOII
Otoño TOTAL
1 10
2 20
3 30
2 45
9 70
3 90
11 125
22 150
21 180
28 220
33 270
FRXELAST
0.41039672
0.0264066
0.0762562
0.47965116
0.99271068
ELASTICIDA FRXELAST
0.60526316 0.16329042
0.17306397 0.04731245
1.22580645 0.31747505
1.11111111 0.21982414
0.74790207
CONS CONSF AÑOS CONSFSM
220 230,112,226,173 1995 230
240 239,924,360,592 1996 237
250 243,603,910,999 1997 247
255 250,963,011,813 1998 252
t-Statistic Prob. 262 25,954,862,943 1999 258
7,839,321 0.0001 265 266,907,730,244 2000 266
1,408,554 0.0000 280 275,493,347,861 2001 274
Mean dependent var 2,647,000 285 284,078,965,478 2002 283
S.D. dependent var 2,462,632 290 293,891,099,897 2003 292
Akaike info criterion 6,289,762 300 302,476,717,513 2004 302
Schwarz criterion 6,350,279 2005 311
F-statistic 1,984,025 2006 320
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 2007 329
respuesta 4
ING INGSM computadora lineal exponencial
110 110.0000 1995 i= 1,0488697 i=1,026003955
118 116.0000 1996
121 123.9312 1997
127 127.6720 1998
134 132.7571 1999
140 139.4993 2000
147 145.8798 2001
154 153.0015 2002
162 160.3257 2003
Prob.
0.1711
0.1474
0.1490
126.5000
13.93818
exponencial
PRECSM DEMANDA logdeman INGRESO loging PRECIO
20 129 2.11058971 117 2.06818586 20
20 139 2.14301480 115 2.06069784 20
20 109 2.03742650 98 1.99122608 15
20 138 2.13987909 146 2.16435286 22
20 114 2.05690485 125 2.09691001 18
20 119 2.07554696 114 2.05690485 15
20 146 2.16435286 128 2.10720997 20
20 125 2.09691001 98 1.99122608 19
20 119 2.07554696 118 2.07188201 23
20 105 2.02118930 94 1.97312785 18
20 147 2.16731733 126 2.10037055 24
20 128 2.10720997 128 2.10720997 19
20
20
20
logprec logdeman loging logprec Dependent Variable: LOGDE
1.30103000 2.11058971 2.06818586 1.30103000 Method: Least Squares
1.30103000 2.14301480 2.06069784 1.30103000 Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
1.17609126 2.03742650 1.99122608 1.17609126 Sample(adjusted): 1 12
1.34242268 2.13987909 2.16435286 1.34242268 Included observations: 12 aft
1.25527251 2.05690485 2.09691001 1.25527251
1.17609126 2.07554696 2.05690485 1.17609126 Variable
1.30103000 2.16435286 2.10720997 1.30103000
1.27875360 2.09691001 1.99122608 1.27875360 C
1.36172784 2.07554696 2.07188201 1.36172784 LOGING
1.25527251 2.02118930 1.97312785 1.25527251 LOGPREC
1.38021124 2.16731733 2.10037055 1.38021124
1.27875360 2.10720997 2.10720997 1.27875360 R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson
Depende
Method:
Date: 03
Sample(
Included
V
LO
LO
R-square
Adjusted
Dependent Variable: LOGDEM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
ncluded observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints LOGDEM LOGDEMF
211,058,971 210,581,671,934
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 21,430,148 210,295,120,122
20,374,265 203,800,466,746
0.914896 0.387791 2,359,247 0.0427 213,987,909 215,532,710,464
0.382680 0.222004 1,723,756 0.1188 205,690,485 210,275,955,672
0.307039 0.197178 1,557,165 0.1539 207,554,696 206,313,864,228
216,435,286 212,075,047,949
0.562546 Mean dependent var 2,099,657 209,691,001 206,952,600,178
0.465334 S.D. dependent var 0.048115 207,554,696 212,586,776,276
0.035182 Akaike info criterion -3,644,245 20,211,893 205,539,055,617
0.011140 Schwarz criterion -3,523,019 216,731,733 21,424,448,905
2,486,547 F-statistic 5,786,793 210,720,997 211,391,075,763
1,746,683 Prob(F-statistic) 0.024221
VAN Mrg.
van 11% $192,222.27 $172,002.62 $20,219.65
van 25% $145,214.83 $146,269.95 ($1,055.12)
se debería ejecutar.
CANTIDAD INGRESO
AÑOS DEMAN/PERS POR PERS. Y=97.53147+1.211366X
1990 220 110 PROYECCION
1991 240 116 CONS POT 97 284.081834
1992 250 121
1993 255 127 CONS 2000 312.4883667
1994 262 134 CONS 2001 323.236211535
1995 265 140 CONS 2002 334.5214486118
1996 280 147 CONS 2003 346.3709475423
1997 285 154 CONS TOT 2000 318738134.034
1998 290 162 CONS TOT 2001 336294954.481
1999 300 169 CONS TOT 2002 354996837.4384
CONS TOT 2003 374923052.9095
Dependent Variable: DEMAN
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/27/06 Time: 12:50
Sample: 1990 1999
Included observations: 10
POBLACION TOTAL
POBLACION MILLONES POBLACION
AÑOS ESTRATO A ESTRATO B ESTRATO C TOTAL
1 0.10 1 2 3.10
2 0.11 1.1 2.24 3.45
3 0.12 1.21 2.51 3.84
4 0.14 1.33 2.81 4.28
5 0.14 1.46 3.15 4.75
6 0.15 1.61 3.52 5.28
7 0.16 1.77 3.95 5.88
8 0.48 1.95 4.12 6.55
9 0.20 2.14 4.95 7.29
10 0.25 2.36 5.55 8.16
r= 0,1131
PROYECION DE LA POBLACION TOTAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE
AÑO POBL TOT Q=4,21+0.726t
t 11 9.06 12.19
Pt =P o (1+0 , 113) 12 10.05 12.92
13 11.16 13.65
0.11353318 14 12.39 14.37
15 13.75 15.10
0.11111111 16 15.26 15.82
17 16.94 16.55
18 18.81 17.28
19 20.87 18.00
20 23.17 18.73
POBLA POBLASM
3.1 3.1
3.45 3.536
3.84 3.8
4.28 4.23
4.75 4.72
5.28 5.22
5.88 5.81
6.55 6.48
7.29 7.22
8.16 8.03
9.03
9.9
10.77
3 modelos doble logaritmo para comprobar
sumplies 3 DEMANDA LOG DEM INGRESO LOG ING PRECIO LOG PRE
semilosgaritm 64 1.80617997 57 1.75587486 8 0.90308999
doblelogaritm 71 1.85125835 59 1.77085201 10 1
53 1.72427587 49 1.69019608 6 0.77815125
67 1.8260748 62 1.79239169 11 1.04139269
55 1.74036269 51 1.70757018 8 0.90308999
58 1.76342799 50 1.69897 7 0.84509804
77 1.88649073 55 1.74036269 10 1
57 1.75587486 48 1.68124124 9 0.95424251
56 1.74818803 52 1.71600334 10 1
51 1.70757018 42 1.62324929 6 0.77815125
76 1.88081359 61 1.78532984 12 1.07918125
68 1.83250891 57 1.75587486 9 0.95424251
DEMANDA LOG DEM LOG ING LOG PRE Dependent Variable: LOGDEMAN
64 1.80617997 1.75587486 0.90308999 Method: Least Squares
71 1.85125835 1.77085201 1 Date: 03/19/16 Time: 09:07
53 1.72427587 1.69019608 0.77815125 Sample: 1 12
67 1.8260748 1.79239169 1.04139269 Included observations: 12
55 1.74036269 1.70757018 0.90308999
58 1.76342799 1.69897 0.84509804 Variable Coefficient Std. Error
77 1.88649073 1.74036269 1
57 1.75587486 1.68124124 0.95424251 C 0.32955 0.489261
56 1.74818803 1.71600334 1 LOGING 0.74611 0.3548
51 1.70757018 1.62324929 0.77815125 LOGPRE 0.187829 0.179873
76 1.88081359 1.78532984 1.07918125
68 1.83250891 1.75587486 0.95424251 R-squared 0.732378 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-s 0.672907 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regre 0.035223 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared 0.011166 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood 24.85146 Hannan-Quinn criter.
F-statistic 12.31478 Durbin-Watson stat
Prob(F-statist 0.002654
t-Statistic Prob.
0.673568 0.5175
2.102907 0.0648
1.044234 0.3236
MODELO OPTIMO
0.225832 0.8264
1.892136 0.091
1.065098 0.3146 ES REDUNDANTE LA DEMANDA Y ERL PRECIO
able: LOGDEMAN
Time: 09:45