Computations for Demand

Arithmetic Straight Line for Demand

Year Y a + Yi-1 = Yc

2013 287915 - + - = -

2014 295516 12170.20 + 287915 = 300085.20

2015 321100 12170.20 + 300085.20 = 312255.40

2016 330088 12170.20 + 312255.40 = 324425.60

2017 339299 12170.20 + 324425.60 = 336595.80

2018 348766 12170.20 + 336595.80 = 348766.00

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²

0 0

-4569.20 20877588.64

8844.60 78226949.16

5662.40 32062773.76

2703.20 7307290.24

0.00 0.00

∑ (Y-Yc)² = 138474601.80

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ=√
n
 138474601.807²
σ =√
6

σ = 4804.07

Arithmetic Geometric Curve for the Demand

%
Year Y Yi+1 r+1 Yc
increase
2013 287915 298868.118 103.94% = 287551.7

2014 295516 2.64% 310629.878 103.94% = 298868.1

2015 321100 8.66% 322854.515 103.94% = 310629.9

2016 330088 2.80% 335560.245 103.94% = 322854.5

2017 339299 2.79% 348766 103.94% = 335560.2

2018 348766 2.79%

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)^2

363.293 131981.6436

-3352.1 11236693.27

10470.1 109623450.2

7233.48 52323303.18

3738.76 13978291.14

0 0

∑ (Y-Yc)² = 187293719.40
 ∑ (Y-YC )2
σ=√
n

187293719.40²
σ =√
6

σ = 4327.74

Statistical Straight Line for the Demand

Year Y X X² XY a b x Yc

2013 287915 1 1 287915 275988.13 12702.63 1 288690.76

2014 295516 2 4 591032 275988.13 12702.63 2 301393.39

2015 321100 3 9 963300 275988.13 12702.63 3 314096.02

2016 330088 4 16 1320352 275988.13 12702.63 4 326798.65

2017 339299 5 25 1696495 275988.13 12702.63 5 339501.28

2018 348766 6 36 2092596 275988.13 12702.63 6 352203.91

∑ Y = 1922684

∑ X =21

∑ X²=91

∑ XY=6951690

6(6951690)-(21)(1922684)
b=
6(91)-21²
 b= 12702.63

1922684 21
a= -12702.63 x
6 6
a= 275988.13

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²

-775.76 601803.5776

-5877.39 34543713.21

7003.98 49055735.84

3289.35 10819823.42

-202.28 40917.1984

-3437.91 11819225.17

∑ (Y-Yc)² = 106881218.40

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ=√
n

106881218²
σ =√
6

σ = 4220.61

Statistical Parabolic Curve Method for Demand

Year Y X X² X⁴ XY (X²)Y
2013 287915 -5 25 625 -1439575 7197875

2014 295516 -3 9 81 -886548 2659644

2015 321100 -1 1 1 -321100 321100

2016 330088 1 1 1 330088 330088

2017 339299 3 9 81 1017897 3053691

2018 348766 5 25 625 1743830 8719150

Sum 1922684 70 1414 444592 22281548

∑ Y = 1922684

∑ X =21

∑ X²=91

∑ XY=6951690

(1414)(1922684)-(70)(22281548)
a=
6(1414)-(70²)
a= 323372

444592
b=
70
b= 6351.31

6(22281548)-(70)(1922684)
c=
6(1414)-(70²)
 c= -250.72

A + bX + cX² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²

323372.44 + -31756.55 + -6268 = 285348 2567.11 6590053.752

323372.44 + -19053.93 + -2256.5 = 302062 -6546.03 42850508.76

323372.44 + -6351.31 + -250.72 = 316770 4329.59 18745349.57

323372.44 + 6351.31 + -250.72 = 329473 614.97 378188.1009

323372.44 + 19053.93 + -2256.5 = 340170 -870.89 758449.3921

323372.44 + 31756.55 + -6268 = 348861 -94.99 9023.1001

∑(Y − Yc)² = 69331572.67

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ=√
n

69331572.67
σ =√
6

σ = 3399.30

Computations for Projected Demand

Year A + B X + c X² = Yc

2019 323372.44 + 637.03 7 + -250.72 49 = 327630

2020 323372.44 + 637.03 9 + -250.72 81 = 328936

2021 323372.44 + 637.03 11 + -250.72 121 = 330250

2022 323372.44 + 637.03 13 + -250.72 169 = 331572

2023 323372.44 + 637.03 15 + -250.72 225 = 332902

Computations for Supply

Arithmetic Straight Line for Supply

Year Y A + Yi-1 = Yc

2013 118260 - + - = -

2014 120085 14673.00 + 118260 = 132933.00

2015 141985 14673.00 + 132933.00 = 147606.00

2016 176295 14673.00 + 147606.00 = 162279.00

2017 187610 14673.00 + 162279.00 = 176952.00

2018 191625 14673.00 + 176952.00 = 191625.00

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²

0 0

-12848.00 165071104.00

-5621.00 31595641.00

14016.00 196448256.00

10658.00 113592964.00

0.00 0.00
∑ (Y-Yc)² = 506707965.00

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ =√
n

506707965.00
σ =√
6

σ = 9189.74

Arithmetic Geometric Curve for Supply

Year Y % increase Yi+1 r+1 Yc

2013 118260 - 128526.673 110.50% = 116313.1

2014 120085 1.54% 142022.774 110.50% = 128526.7

2015 141985 18.24% 156936.05 110.50% = 142022.8

2016 176295 24.16% 173415.312 110.50% = 156936

2017 187610 6.42% 191625 110.50% = 173415.3

2018 191625 2.14%

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²

1946.924227 3790513.945

-8441.673045 71261843.8

-37.77408843 1426.881757

19358.95021 374768953.4

14194.6877 201489158.9
∑ (Y-Yc)² = 651311896.90

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ =√
n

651311896.90
σ =√
6

σ = 8070.39

Statistical Straight Line

Year Y X X² XY a b x Yc

2013 118260 1 1 118260 95607.48 17248.34 1 112855.82

2014 120085 2 4 240170 95607.48 17248.34 2 130104.16

2015 141985 3 9 425955 95607.48 17248.34 3 147352.5

2016 176295 4 16 705180 95607.48 17248.34 4 164600.84

2017 187610 5 25 938050 95607.48 17248.34 5 181849.18

2018 191625 6 36 1149750 95607.48 17248.34 6 199097.52

∑ Y = 935860

∑ X =21

∑ X²=91

∑ XY=6951690
 6(3577356)-(21)(935860)
b=
6(91)-21²
b= 17248.34

935860 21
a= -17248.34 x
6 6
a= 95607.48

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)^2

5404.18 29205161.47

-10019.16 100383567.1

-5367.5 28810056.25

11694.16 136753378.1

5760.82 33187047.07

-7472.52 55838555.15

∑ (Y-Yc)² = 384177765.20

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ=√
n

384177765.20²
σ =√
6

σ = 8001.85
Statistical Parabolic Curve Method for Supply

Year Y X X² X⁴ XY (X²)Y

2013 118260 -5 25 625 -591300 2956500

2014 120085 -3 9 81 -360255 1080765

2015 141985 -1 1 1 -141985 141985

2016 176295 1 1 1 176295 176295

2017 187610 3 9 81 562830 1688490

2018 191625 5 25 625 958125 4790625

Sum 935860 70 1414 603710 10834660

∑ Y = 935860

∑ X²=70

∑ X⁴=1414

∑ XY=603710

∑ X²Y=10834660

(1414)( 935860)-(70)(10834660)
a=
6(1414)-(70²)
157611.56
a=
 603710
b=
70
b= 8624.43

6(10834660)-(70)( 935860)
c=
6(1414)-(70²)
c= -140.13

A + bX + cX² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²

157611.56 + -43122.15 + -3503.3 = 110986 7273.84 52908748.35

157611.56 + -25873.29 + -2256.5 = 129482 -9396.79 88299662.3

157611.56 + -8624.43 + -250.72 = 148736 -6751.41 45581536.99

157611.56 + 8624.43 + -250.72 = 165985 10309.73 106290532.7

157611.56 + 25873.29 + -2256.5 = 181228 6381.63 40725201.46

157611.56 + 43122.15 + -6268 = 194466 -2840.71 8069633.304

∑(Y − Yc)² = 341875315.10

∑ (Y-YC )2
σ=√
n

341875315.10
σ =√
6

σ = 7548.46

Computations for Projected Supply

Year a + b X + c X² = Yc

2019 157611.56 + 8624.43 7 + -140.13 49 = 211116

2020 157611.56 + 8624.43 9 + -140.13 81 = 223881

2021 157611.56 + 8624.43 11 + -140.13 121 = 235525

2022 157611.56 + 8624.43 13 + -140.13 169 = 246047

2023 157611.56 + 8624.43 15 + -140.13 225 = 255449