PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

CONSIDERING SITE – SPECIFIC SOIL

EFFECTS
Bo Li, Zhen Cai, Wei-Chau Xie, Mahesh Pandey

PRESENTED BY:
JOSE ABRAHAM L. CONSUELO
OVERVIEW

This study presents a framework to perform Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

(PSHA) for soil sites, which yields accurate soil Uniform Hazard Spectra and associated
seismic hazard curves. The variabilities of soil parameters, the nonlinear responses of soils,
and the vector-valued site responses analysis comprehensively integrate into the PSHA for
soil sites. In this framework, site amplification is used to modify the Ground Motion
Prediction Equations (GMPEs) to make them suitable for a soil site. Using an example soil
site, influences of soil parameter variabilities and soil nonlinearity on UHS and associated
seismic hazard curves are discussed in this study.
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The design response spectrum is usually represented by site-specific ground motions, such as
Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS).

When incident bedrock motions propagate from bedrock to the soil surface, the soil deposit
changes characteristics of the ground motions; the extent of this change largely depends on
features of the incident bedrock motions and characteristics of the local soil deposit.

To construct UHS from Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), Ground Motion
Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are required.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
• To provide a probabilistic framework to perform PSHA for a specific site
- Soil Uniform Hazard Spectra and Associated Seismic Hazard Curve can be
generated from the framework

• To develop a Site Amplification Model from the ff.:

- Soil Parameter Uncertainties and Input Bedrock Motion
- Vector Valued Site Response Analysis
- Soil Non Linearity
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

• To obtain the modified GMPE with updated uncertainties for the soil site
using the Site Amplification Model
SOIL PARAMETER UNCERTAINTIES
•  Shear Wave Velocity

- Normal Random Variable for the iTH layer

- Shear Wave Velocity
- Median Shear Wave Velocity
- Standard Deviation of Shear Wave Velocity
SOIL PARAMETER UNCERTAINTIES
•  Normalized Shear Modulus and Damping Ratio

- Standard Deviation of Normalized Shear Modulus and Damping Ratio

Barred (G/G)max , Barred () - Mean Normalized Shear Modulus , Mean Damping Ratio
, , - Model Parameters obtained from Regression Analysis
SITE RESPONSE ANALYSIS
• DEEPSOIL
• Vector Valued Site Response Analysis
• Selection of Ground Motion
• Site Amplification
PHSA for a Specific Soil Site
•  Consider a specific soil site in a region that has NS potential seismic
sources, each of which has a mean annual rate of threshold magnitude
exceedance
The mean annual rate of exceedance of the ground-motion parameter at
the soil surface is expressed as
PHSA for a Specific Soil Site
•Where
  denotes the site amplification at period
denotes the spectral acceleration of input bedrock motions at period

f(, pga, |m, r) denotes the joint probability density function of , pga,
and conditional on m and r, (m) and (r) respectively denote probability
density function of magnitude m and source-to-site distance r.
PHSA for a Specific Soil Site
• The correlation coefficient between spectral acceleration at a single period
and an average spectral acceleration over n periods can be calculated by
the formula
PHSA for a Specific Soil Site

•  

This equation is used to modify empirical GMPEs at the bedrock level.

Where the function P(…) is the standard normal distribution function, and
Numerical Application
• A Soil Site at Charleston, South Carolina will be used as an example site
to conduct PSHA.
Discussion
• Soils usually undergo significant nonlinear responses. Failure to consider
the nonlinear responses may distort the soil-hazard curve and thus leads to
inaccurate soil UHS.

• In site response analysis, the levels of bedrock motions control the degree
of soil nonlinearity, which therefore affects characteristics of soil UHS.
Discussion
• . To investigate effects of soil nonlinearity on soil UHS, the amplification
factor is defined as
Discussion
• Conclusions drawn regarding Amplification Factors for UHS at both
exceedance levels
• All amplification factors almost keep constant at the short period range (i.e. 0.01–0.1
s). After period approaches the second resonant period range (0.2–0.4 s) of the soil
deposit, the amplification factors increase suddenly.

• All amplification factors increase to the highest value in the first resonant period range
(0.6–0.8 s) of the soil deposit. Similarly, because of soil nonlinearity induced by the
input bedrock motions, the first resonant period range also shifts to longer periods.
Conclusions
• Spectral shapes and spectral amplitudes of rock UHS are greatly different
from those of soil UHS. The differences are caused by effects of the local
soil site.

• . The nonlinear effects of soils depend on the amount of shear strain and
nonlinear behavior used in the soil models. The consideration of soil
nonlinearity is necessary
Conclusions
• The remarkable differences between the soil UHS by the modified
GMPEs and the soil UHS by empirical GMPEs show that soil UHS by
empirical GMPEs is not accurate.

• Influences of soil parameter variabilities on spectral shapes and spectral

amplitudes of UHS are not very remarkable over the entire periods except
the resonant period ranges.
THAT’S ALL, THANK YOU!

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