Topic 9 - Queuing

Quantitative Methods for
Decision Making / Numerical

Management Techniques:
QUEUING THEORY
Adrian Bown
Room: CC NT 101 / Tel. Ext. 27629

Background:
In statistics there are two types of data:
• Continuous – can (theoretically) be any number/value
• Discrete – can only be one of a small number of

numbers/values – typically < 20
Continuous Data: Normal Distribution Curve
P ≈ 0.68 (68%)
Mean
Probability Density
P ≈ 0.95 (95%)
P = 0.9975 (99.75%)

–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
Variable
Discrete Data: Poisson Distribution Curves
Probability
Number of Events/Occurrences
https://www.umass.edu/wsp/resources/poisson/
Revision of Poisson Probability Distribution:
• It is a theoretical probability distribution;
• It is most accurate when the probability of an
occurrence is low in a large number of trials;
• The values it produces are similar to a binomial
distribution when the number of trials > 50 and the
probability is < 10 %.
Poisson Probability Distribution Graph ( n = 50, μ = 10 )
0.14 Mean
0.12
0.10
Probability, P ( r )
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Number of trials, n
• The probability of an occurrence is given by:


e . r
P r  
r!

e . r
P r  
r!
• P ( r ) Probability of an occurrence
• e
’ Euler’s number (approx. 2.71828 to 5 d.p.)
• μ
’ Mean value of the distribution
• r
’ Number of happenings of an event
• r ! r factorial - the product of a descending order of

’ ‘
natural numbers between the value r and 1

An excavator hire company has a large stock of machines. A

review of their maintenance data has found that, on average,
the company experiences three breakdowns per working day.
The company has two fitters who can usually repair two
excavators each during an average each working day.
Assuming a Poisson Probability Distribution and that a
typical working year consists of 6 days per week over a 48
week period, determine on how many days the fitters will not
be able to cope?

e . r
P r  
r!
• In this example:
• μ
’ Average breakdowns per working day,  μ = 3
• r
’ Average total number of repairs per working day
– 2 fitters * 2 repairs = 4  r = 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4

be able to cope?

e . r
P r  
r!
• μ
• r

e . r
P r  
r!
• μ
• r

be able to cope?

e . r
P r  
r!
• μ
• r
• The probability of no breakdowns (i.e. no occurrences):
3
e .3 0
0.050  1
P 0     0.050
0! 1
• ’ The probability of 1 breakdown (i.e. 1 occurrence):
3
e .3 1
0.050  3
P 1     0.149
1! 1
• The probability of 2 breakdowns (i.e. 2 occurrences):
3
e .3 2
0.050  9
P 2     0.224
2! 12
• Similarly; P ( 3 ) = 0.224 and P ( 4 ) = 0.168
• The sum of the probabilities between r = 0 and r = 4 is:

∑ P ( 0  4 ) = 0.050 + 0.149 + 0.224 + 0.224 + 0.168 = 0.815
• Therefore, the sum of the probabilities greater than 4

= 1 – 0.815 = 0.185. Based on a 6 day working week and 48
week working year, this equates to 54 days per year
Queuing Theory:
Poisson Probability Distribution – Applications to Queuing
Theory:
There are seven equations relating to Queuing Theory:

1
• Service time, S  [ μ - rate of service ]

1
• Arrival time, A  [ λ - rate of arrival ]

S  
• Utilisation,    or, 
A  

• Average queue size =
 1 
• Poisson Probability Distribution – Applications to
Queuing Theory:

•
 1   
Waiting time (excluding service time):
k 1
• Probability of the queue exceeding ‘ k ‘ in length: 
• Based on Poisson Probability Distribution, probability of ‘

 t
. t 
n
e
n ‘ arrivals in time ‘ t ‘: P  n 
n!
Class example:
Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at an average

rate of 3 per hour. The average service time is 12 minutes. The
warehouse has parking for 8 waiting trucks. Determine:
• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving at the warehouse in a

one hour period.
• The average number of trucks waiting to be loaded/unloaded

and their average waiting time
• Based on a 72 hours operating week, the amount of time each

week that the parking will be insufficient.
Theory:
Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at a rate

of 4 per hour. The average service time is 12 minutes.
1
• Service time, S   12mins where μ is the rate of

service
• In this case the service time, S, is given (12 minutes).

Although it is not required, the rate of service, μ, will be
5 (i.e. in one hour, 5 trucks can be loaded or unloaded)
Theory:
Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at a rate

of 3 per hour. The average service time is 12 minutes.
1 1
• Arrival time,A    0.33 hrs  or, 20mins 
 3
• The rate of arrival, λ , is given ( 3 )
Class example:


one hour period.


• Rate of arrival, λ = 3
 t
. t 
n
e
• Prob. of ‘ n ‘ arrivals in time ‘ t ‘: P  n 
n!
• In this case, time, t = 1 hour ;
• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving in one hour
is:
 31
  3  1
3 3
e e 3 3
P 3     0.224
3! 6
• Variation in the Probability of the number of arrivals ( n )
in an one-hour interval
Class example:


one hour period.


Theory:
S 12
• Utilisation,     0.6
A 20
 0.6 0.6
•    1.5
 1     1  0.6  0.4
Av. queue size:
Poisson Probability Distribution – App. to Queuing Theory:
• Variation of Queue Size against Utilisation

Class example:


one hour period.


• Rate of service, μ = 5 / Utilisation, ρ = 0.8
• Waiting time (excluding service time):

 0.6 0.6
 
  1    5  1  0.6  5  0.4
0.6
  0.3 hours  or, 18mins 
2
• Total time in the system (waiting time + service time)
= 18 mins + 12 minutes (given in the question) = 30 mins

Class example:


one hour period.


• Utilisation, ρ = 0.6
• Probability of the queue exceeding ‘ k ‘ in length - in
this case k = 8
k 1
• Probability of length of queue exceeding 8:   9
  0.6  0.01 Conversely, 99 % of time less than 8

9 9
trucks
• Based on a 72 hours operating week, this probability
equals: 43 minutes : 32 seconds

• Variation of Probability of a Queue > k against ‘ k ‘
Queuing Theory:
Unpredictable Queues
Class example:
Two sizes of trucks (3 m3 and 6 m3) use a concrete batching

plant. Determine the truck waiting time and mixer waiting
time in any single period of two hours based on the following:
• There are equal numbers of the two truck types;
• It takes 3 minutes to load the smaller truck and 5 minutes

for the larger ones;
• The distribution of inter-arrival times of the trucks are

shown in Table 1;
• And, the trucks are loaded in the order that they arrive.
Class example:
Table 1:
Inter-arrival Time
( mins ) Frequency ( % )
2 10
3 15
4 30
5 25
6 20
Table 2: Random values for the Inter-arrival/Loading Times

33 26 84 46 19 32 24 36 54 39 33 57 53
31 62 43 23 16 23 70 39 27 13 32 69 20
81 75 93 73 48 97 62 33 91 42 34 47 24
44 78 19 81 50 71 17 59 81 81 76 41 14
65 11 91 88 1 79 24 5 51 79 96 81 81
83 23 68 91 99 4 29 75 36 60 86 42 43
6 14 11 90 88 23 20 32 16 45 94 70 50
69 4 80 12 38 62 60 2 57 48 62 27 4
13 33 62 93 4 22 58 11 80 66 31 92 39
23 37 99 78 12 72 44 35 29 15 11 16 3
3 28 22 33 83 39 58 84 17 76 59 3 31
48 96 19 12 50 22 4 51 50 1 74 63 5
13 57 83 7 63 36 1 16 4 46 10 55 13
70 42 21 68 63 63 54 8 6 99 78 81 27
89 42 21 42 73 66 1 75 4 41 4 82 35
25 91 10 16 12 46 53 92 33 90 19 58 11
12 91 65 93 17 6 65 55 46 60 8 9 10
70 9 32 80 60 52 32 35 28 40 33 75 54
22 31 97 85 73 18 60 30 95 15 76 59 97
79 34 82 18 63 80 78 18 63 20 5 35 89
55 64 35 53 62 82 25 37 88 49 91 79 75
81 65 81 83 2 53 17 47 74 58 54 58 27
4 58 6 1 71 26 13 15 71 24 52 45 66
48 56 92 37 30 44 67 71 36 16 58 4 2
15 13 8 88 15 79 61 53 49 53 97 30 31
11 31 9 97 12 81 39 38 62 7 51 17 46
19 68 34 88 57 40 67 44 29 31 53 64 17
84 92 77 12 39 55 2 52 71 23 47 42 24
Table 2: Random values for the Inter-arrival/Loading Times
A B
33 26 84 46 19 32 24 36 54 39 33 57 53
31 62 43 23 16 23 70 39 27 13 32 69 20
81 75 93 73 48 97 62 33 91 42 34 47 24
44 78 19 81 50 71 17 59 81 81 76 41 14
65 11 91 88 1 79 24 5 51 79 96 81 81
83 23 68 91 99 4 29 75 36 60 86 42 43
6 14 11 90 88 23 20 32 16 45 94 70 50
69 4 80 12 38 62 60 2 57 48 62 27 4
13 33 62 93 4 22 58 11 80 66 31 92 39
23 37 99 78 12 72 44 35 29 93 11 16 3
3 28 22 33 83 39 58 84 17 76 59 3 31
48 96 19 12 50 22 4 51 50 1 74 63 5
13 57 83 7 63 36 1 16 4 46 10 55 13
70 42 21 68 63 63 54 8 6 99 78 81 27
89 42 21 42 73 66 1 75 4 41 4 82 35
25 91 10 16 12 46 53 92 33 90 19 58 11
12 91 65 93 17 6 65 55 46 60 8 9 10
70 9 32 80 60 52 32 35 28 40 33 75 54
22 31 97 85 73 18 60 30 95 15 76 59 97
79 34 82 18 63 80 78 18 63 20 5 35 89
55 64 35 53 62 82 25 37 88 49 91 79 75
81 65 81 83 2 53 17 47 74 58 54 58 27
4 58 6 1 71 26 13 15 71 24 52 45 66
48 56 92 37 30 44 67 71 36 16 58 4 2
15 13 8 88 15 79 61 53 49 53 97 30 31
11 31 9 97 12 81 39 38 62 7 51 17 46
19 68 34 88 57 40 67 44 29 31 53 64 17
84 92 77 12 39 55 2 52 71 23 47 42 24
Service Time Inter-Arrival Time Clock Servicing Waiting
Random Random Inter- Inter-arrival

Service Time Service Time arrival time time Clock time Start Finish 1 (Insert) 2 (Insert)
84 39
43 13
93 42
19 81
91 79
68 60
11 45
80 48
62 66
99 93
22 76
19 1
83 46
21 99
21 41
10 90
65 60
32 40
97 15
82 20
35 49
81 58
6 24
92 16
8 53
9 7
34 31
77 23
A
Column A will be used for the Service Times:
84
43
93
19
91
0 99
68
11
80
62
Random Numbers (between 0 and 99)
99
22
19
83
21
21
10
65
32
97
82
35
81
6
92
8
9
34
77
Class example:

• There are equal numbers of the two truck types;
• It takes 3 minutes to load the smaller truck and 5 minutes

for the larger ones;
• The distribution of inter-arrival times of the trucks are

shown in Table 1;
• And, the trucks are loaded in the order that they arrive.
A
Column A will be used for the Service Times:
84
43 0 – 49 = 3 minutes 50 – 99 = 5 minutes
93
19
91
0 99
68
11
80
62
Random Numbers (between 0 and 99)
99
22
19
83
21
21
10 Values between: 0 – 49: 3 mins
65
32
97
82
50 – 99: 5 mins
35
81
6
92
8
9
34
77

Service Time Service Time arrival time time Clock time Start Finish Truck Mixer
84 5 39 4
43 3 13 3
93 5 42 4
19 3 81 6
91 5 79 5
68 5 60 5
11 3 45 4
80 5 48 4
62 5 66 5
99 5 93 6
22 3 76 5
19 3 1 2
83 5 46 4
21 3 99 6
21 3 41 4
10 3 90 6
65 5 60 5
32 3 40 4
97 5 15 3
82 5 20 3
35 3 49 4
81 5 58 5
6 3 24 3
92 5 16 2
8 3 53 4
9 3 7 2
34 3 31 4
77 5 23 3
B
39
13
0 99 42
81
79
60
Random Numbers (between 0 and 99) 45
48
66
93
Column B will be used for the Int.-arr. Times: 76

1
46
99
41
90
60
40
15
20
49
58
24
16
53
7
31
23
Class example:
Table 1:
Inter-arrival Time
( mins ) Frequency ( % )
2 10
3 15
4 30
5 25
6 20
Inter-
80 – 99 = 6 min
25 – 54 = 4 min
55 – 79 = 5 min
10 – 24 = 3 min
arrival Frequency
0 – 9 = 2 min
Time (%) B
( mins ) 39
13
2 10 42
3 15 81
79
4 30 60
5 25 0 99 45
48
6 20 10 15 30 25 20 66
93
Random Numbers (between 0 and 99) 76
1
46
Column B will be used for the Int.-arr. Times: 99
41
Based on the frequencies in Table 1 90

60
40
Values: 0 – 9 : 2 mins 15
20
10 – 24: 3 mins 49
58
24
25 – 54: 4 mins 16
53
55 – 79: 5 mins 7
31
80 – 99: 6 mins 23

84 5 39 4
43 3 13 3
93 5 42 4
19 3 81 6
91 5 79 5
68 5 60 5
11 3 45 4
80 5 48 4
62 5 66 5
99 5 93 6
22 3 76 5
19 3 1 2
83 5 46 4
21 3 99 6
21 3 41 4
10 3 90 6
65 5 60 5
32 3 40 4
97 5 15 3
82 5 20 3
35 3 49 4
81 5 58 5
6 3 24 3
92 5 16 3
8 3 53 4
9 3 7 2
34 3 31 4
77 5 23 3
Class example:
Before attempting to find a solution to the problem, the

‘randomised’ and ‘measured’ frequencies will be compared to
ensure that there is a reasonable correlation between them.
• Number of ‘ 3’s ‘ in ‘ Service Time ’ column = 14 ( 50 % )
• The question states: ‘ There are equal numbers of the two

truck types ’ - the random data is therefore acceptable.
Class example:
Inter-arrival Measured Randomised

Time Random
Frequency Number Frequency
( mins ) (%) (%)
2 10 0-9 11
3 15 10 – 24 18
4 30 25 – 54 36
5 25 55 – 79 21
6 20 80 - 99 14
• The random data is therefore acceptable


84 5 39 4
43 3 13 3
93 5 42 4
19 3 81 6
91 5 79 5
68 5 60 5
11 3 45 4
80 5 48 4
62 5 66 5
99 5 93 6
22 3 76 5
19 3 1 2
83 5 46 4
21 3 99 6
21 3 41 4
10 3 90 6
65 5 60 5
32 3 40 4
97 5 15 3
82 5 20 3
35 3 49 4
81 5 58 5
6 3 24 3
92 5 16 3
8 3 53 4
9 3 7 2
34 3 31 4
77 5 23 3

84 5 39 4 0
43 3 13 3
93 5 42 4
19 3 81 6
91 5 79 5
68 5 60 5
11 3 45 4
80 5 48 4
62 5 66 5
99 5 93 6
Random
Service Time Service Time
Random Inter-
arrival time
Inter-arrival
time Clock time The
Start ‘clock’
Finish is the
Truck Mixer
cumulative inter-arrival
84 5 39 4 0
times
43 3 13 3 3
93 5 42 4 7
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5 0 0
43 3 13 3 3 5 8 2 0
93 5 42 4 7 8 13 1 0
19 3 81 6 13 13 16 0 0
91 5 79 5 18 18 23 0 2
68 5 60 5 23 23 28 0 0
11 3 45 4 27 28 31 1 0
80 5 48 4 31 31 36 0 0
62 5 66 5 36 36 41 0 0
99 5 93 6 42 42 47 0 1
22 3 76 5 47 47 50 0 0
19 3 1 2 49 50 53 1 0
83 5 46 4 53 53 58 0 0
21 3 99 6 59 59 62 0 1
21 3 41 4 63 63 66 0 1
10 3 90 6 69 69 72 0 3
65 5 60 5 74 74 79 0 2
32 3 40 4 78 79 82 1 0
97 5 15 3 81 82 87 1 0
82 5 20 3 84 87 92 3 0
35 3 49 4 88 92 95 4 0
81 5 58 5 93 95 100 2 0
6 3 24 3 96 100 103 4 0
92 5 16 3 99 103 108 4 0
8 3 53 4 103 108 111 5 0
9 3 7 2 105 111 114 7 0
34 3 31 4 109 114 117 5 0
77 5 23 3 112 117 122 5 0

84 5 39 4 0 0
43 3 13 3 3
93 5 42 4 7
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3
93 5 42 4 7
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5
93 5 42 4 7
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23 23 28
11 3 45 4 27
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23 23 28
11 3 45 4 27 28 31
80 5 48 4 31
62 5 66 5 36
99 5 93 6 42

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23 23 28
11 3 45 4 27 28 31
80 5 48 4 31 31 36
62 5 66 5 36 36 41
99 5 93 6 42 42 47

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8 2 -
93 5 42 4 7 8 13
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23 23 28
11 3 45 4 27 28 31
80 5 48 4 31 31 36
62 5 66 5 36 36 41
99 5 93 6 42 42 47

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8 2 -
93 5 42 4 7 8 13 1 -
19 3 81 6 13 13 16
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23 23 28
11 3 45 4 27 28 31
80 5 48 4 31 31 36
62 5 66 5 36 36 41
99 5 93 6 42 42 47

84 5 39 4 0 0 5
43 3 13 3 3 5 8 2 -
93 5 42 4 7 8 13 1 -
19 3 81 6 13 13 16 - -
91 5 79 5 18 18 23
68 5 60 5 23 23 28
11 3 45 4 27 28 31
80 5 48 4 31 31 36
62 5 66 5 36 36 41
99 5 93 6 42 42 47

84 5 39 4 0 0 5 - -
43 3 13 3 3 5 8 2 -
93 5 42 4 7 8 13 1 -
19 3 81 6 13 13 16 - -
91 5 79 5 18 18 23 - 2
68 5 60 5 23 23 28 - -
11 3 45 4 27 28 31 1 -
80 5 48 4 31 31 36 - -
62 5 66 5 36 36 41 - -
99 5 93 6 42 42 47 - 1

84 5 39 4 0 0 5 0 0
43 3 13 3 3 5 8 2 0
93 5 42 4 7 8 13 1 0
19 3 81 6 13 13 16 0 0
91 5 79 5 18 18 23 0 2
68 5 60 5 23 23 28 0 0
11 3 45 4 27 28 31 1 0
80 5 48 4 31 31 36 0 0
62 5 66 5 36 36 41 0 0
99 5 93 6 42 42 47 0 1
22 3 76 5 47 47 50 0 0
19 3 1 2 49 50 53 1 0
83 5 46 4 53 53 58 0 0
21 3 99 6 59 59 62 0 1
21 3 41 4 63 63 66 0 1
10 3 90 6 69 69 72 0 3
65 5 60 5 74 74 79 0 2
32 3 40 4 78 79 82 1 0
97 5 15 3 81 82 87 1 0
82 5 20 3 84 87 92 3 0
35 3 49 4 88 92 95 4 0
81 5 58 5 93 95 100 2 0
6 3 24 3 96 100 103 4 0
92 5 16 3 99 103 108 4 0
8 3 53 4 103 108 111 5 0
9 3 7 2 105 111 114 6 0
34 3 31 4 109 114 117 5 0
77 5 23 3 112 117 122 5 0
∑ = 45 ∑ = 10
Class example:

• This simulation has shown that the during the 2-hour

period:
• Trucks will be waiting for a total 45 minutes
• The mixer will only be standing idle for 10 minutes.

• The previous example was an illustration of one iteration of
a Monte Carlo simulation
• This is a problem solving technique that can be used to

approximate the probability of certain outcomes by running
multiple trial runs using random data
• New simulations should be run until the [ average ] results

converge
• A further 47 simulations were completed for this problem:
Waiting times:
Truck Mixer Truck Mixer Truck Mixer Truck Mixer
37 18 16 25 56 5 37 4
23 16 41 10 122 5 64 7
53 9 58 12 20 10 87 4
64 4 11 23 67 3 91 10
23 11 95 8 97 8 54 9
115 3 50 4 23 17 37 14
124 5 13 16 67 7 53 7
64 7 24 17 49 9 31 15
30 15 48 11 45 9 21 19
22 18 37 16 157 1 31 16
40 6 10 26 24 17 29 12
57 4 17 13 36 11
An analysis of the data showed:
• The average waiting time for the trucks is 50 minutes [+,

from Excel, Standard Deviation of 33 minutes]
• The average idle time for the mixer is 11 minutes [+, from
Excel, Standard Deviation of 6 minutes]
• The result indicate that the current mixer is not sufficient.

An analysis of the data showed:
• Potential solutions might include modifying the current

mixer or purchasing a larger model.
• Alternatively, a system for controlling the inter-arrival times

of the trucks might be considered.
• Before a solution is implemented, however, it should be

modelled and checked to ensure it will actually works.
COMPLETE THE
TUTORIAL
QUESTIONS

Topic 9 - Queuing

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Quantitative Methods for

Decision Making / Numerical

Room: CC NT 101 / Tel. Ext. 27629

In statistics there are two types of data:

• Continuous – can (theoretically) be any number/value

• Discrete – can only be one of a small number of

• It is a theoretical probability distribution;

• It is most accurate when the probability of an

occurrence is low in a large number of trials;

• The values it produces are similar to a binomial

distribution when the number of trials > 50 and the

• The probability of an occurrence is given by:

• r ! r factorial - the product of a descending order of

natural numbers between the value r and 1

An excavator hire company has a large stock of machines. A

An excavator hire company has a large stock of machines. A

An excavator hire company has a large stock of machines. A

• The probability of no breakdowns (i.e. no occurrences):

• ’ The probability of 1 breakdown (i.e. 1 occurrence):

• Similarly; P ( 3 ) = 0.224 and P ( 4 ) = 0.168

• The sum of the probabilities between r = 0 and r = 4 is:

• Therefore, the sum of the probabilities greater than 4

There are seven equations relating to Queuing Theory:

• Based on Poisson Probability Distribution, probability of ‘

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at an average

• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving at the warehouse in a

• The average number of trucks waiting to be loaded/unloaded

• Based on a 72 hours operating week, the amount of time each

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at a rate

• In this case the service time, S, is given (12 minutes).

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at a rate

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at an average

• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving at the warehouse in a

• The average number of trucks waiting to be loaded/unloaded

• Based on a 72 hours operating week, the amount of time each

• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving in one hour

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at an average

• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving at the warehouse in a

• The average number of trucks waiting to be loaded/unloaded

• Based on a 72 hours operating week, the amount of time each

• Variation of Queue Size against Utilisation

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at an average

• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving at the warehouse in a

• The average number of trucks waiting to be loaded/unloaded

• Based on a 72 hours operating week, the amount of time each

• Waiting time (excluding service time):

= 18 mins + 12 minutes (given in the question) = 30 mins

Trucks arrive to a warehouse for loading and reloading at an average

• The probability of exactly 3 trucks arriving at the warehouse in a

• The average number of trucks waiting to be loaded/unloaded

• Based on a 72 hours operating week, the amount of time each

• Probability of the queue exceeding ‘ k ‘ in length - in

  0.6  0.01 Conversely, 99 % of time less than 8

• Based on a 72 hours operating week, this probability

equals: 43 minutes : 32 seconds

Two sizes of trucks (3 m3 and 6 m3) use a concrete batching

• There are equal numbers of the two truck types;

• It takes 3 minutes to load the smaller truck and 5 minutes

• The distribution of inter-arrival times of the trucks are

Random Random Inter- Inter-arrival

Two sizes of trucks (3 m3 and 6 m3) use a concrete batching

• There are equal numbers of the two truck types;