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“PROBABILITY”

PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY

• a quantitative measure of how likely a particular event will


occur.
• the probability of an event E, denoted as P(E), is a function
that can assume values between 0 to 1, inclusive.
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• RANDOM EXPERIMENT
• any process of making observations, capable of repetitions under
basically the same conditions, that will lead to a well-defined set of
outcomes.
• ex.
• observing the amount of rainfall per day in millimeters in Mandaon,
Masbate
• observing the number of breakage occurrences per 10-m span of a
building wall
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• SAMPLE SPACE (Ω)

• the set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment

• ex.
• let x be the observed amount of rainfall per day in Mandaon,
Masbate. define Ω.

  x | x  0
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• EVENT

• a subset of the sample space

• ex.
• let a be a subset of Ω defined as the set that contains amount of rainfall
during sunny days. Define A.

A  x | 0  x  2
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• GENERAL COMPUTATION OF PROBABILITY

where:
N(E) is the number of elements in the event space
N(𝝮) is the number of elements in the sample space
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• ex. in an experiment of tossing a fair coin once,


𝝮 = { HEAD, TAIL}, hence
N(𝝮) = 2
• let us defined the event, Q, as the event of getting a HEAD,
Q = { HEAD }, HENCE
N(Q) = 1
• What is the probability of getting a HEAD?
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING PROBABILITY


1. A PRIORI APPROACH (THEORETICAL)
• assigns probability to an event using a model with a given set of assumptions
• enables assigning of probability before the performance of the random experiment
• EX. A fair coin is tossed. If a head turns up, the coin is tossed again. Otherwise, a marble is
drawn from a box with 4 opaque and 3 transparent marbles.
MODEL: Ω = {HH, HT, TO, TTR}
ASSUMPTION: The coin is fair, 7 marbles
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING
PROBABILITY
1. A PRIORI APPROACH (THEORETICAL)
• EX. A fair coin is tossed. If a head (h) turns up, the coin is tossed again. otherwise
(i.e. tail (t)), a marble is drawn from a box with 4 opaque and 3 transparent marbles.
• MODEL: Ω = {HH, HT, TO, TTR}
• ASSUMPTION: The coin is fair, 7 marbles
• What is the probability of observing an opaque marble?

E = {TO}  P(E) = P(TO)


= (1/2)(4/7)
= (2/7)
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING PROBABILITY


2. A POSTERIORI APPROACH (EMPIRICAL)
• assigns probability to an event as a relative frequency of the
number of times the event occurred over the number of times the
trials of the experiment was repeated.

• assigning of probability is done after the performance of the


random experiment
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING PROBABILITY


2. A POSTERIORI APPROACH (EMPIRICAL)
• EX.
Suppose we repeatedly perform the experiment of tossing a fair coin and
observing the marble drawn if a tail turns up 100 times and in 20 trials,
we have drawn an opaque marble. Then the empirical probability of
observing an opaque marble is 0.2
NOTE: A posteriori probability approaches the a priori probability as
number of trials increases.
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING PROBABILITY


3. SUBJECTIVE APPROACH
• assigns probability of an event based on the personal judgment, experiences, biases,
etc., of the researcher.
• ex.
A student believes that his probability of passing the exams is 0.80 based on his
performance during the discussion.
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• LET US FOCUS ON THE A PRIORI


APPROACH
• For complicated experiments, counting the number of elements 𝝮 (I.E. N(𝝮))
and the number of elements of the event space (I.E. N(E)) might be difficult.
(You should not do listing in the exam!)
• Hence, we need to find an efficient way to count the number of elements (Not
by listing)

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES!
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES
• An efficient technique used in probability as a tool to count
the number of elements of the event and the number of
elements of the sample space WITHOUT
ENUMERATING the possible outcomes or WITHOUT
PERFORMING the random experiment
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES
1. COMBINATION
• a collection or group formed by taking all or part of a given set objects
without regard to order by which the objects are selected

• EX. In a farm, 50 plots are available for soil analysis, the budget is only for 4
plots, in how many possible sets of 4 plots are there for analysis ?
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES
2. PERMUTATION
• an ordered collection of all or part of a given set of objects

• EX. Ten available tractors for inspection are to be lined up in a


shop. how many ways can the tractors be arranged?
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES
3. ADDITION PRINCIPLE
• suppose k operations cannot be done at the same time or not simultaneously,
then there is a total of n1+ n2+ n3 + … + nk ways of performing at least one of
these k operations where ni is the number of ways to perform operation k
• EX. An engineer will use a drone for fertilizer application in the field. there are 3
designs from company a, 2 designs from company b, and 4 designs from
company c. How many options of designs are there for the engineer?
3 + 2 + 4 = 9 WAYS
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES
4. MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE OR FPC
• suppose k operations can be done together at the same time or
simultaneously, then there is a total of n1x n2 x … x nk ways of
performing these k operations.
ex. In aquaponics, flow rate and size of tube matters. For a set-up,
there are 3 flow rate options and 5 tube sizes to choose from. How
many possible set-ups are there?
3C1 X 5C1
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• Suppose 9 new models of hydrographs are available for studying
environment control. Four of them will form a control group, in how
many ways can the control group be selected?

9
(9 C4 )     24
 4
• In how many ways can seven professional engineers be assigned to
one triple and two double hotel rooms?

(7 C3 )( 4 C2 )(2 C2 )  (35)(6)(1)  210


PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• A new drug for the relief of asthma can be purchased from 5
different manufacturers in liquid, tablet, or capsule form, regular
and extra strength dose. in how many ways can a doctor
prescribe the drug for a patient suffering from asthma?
5 X 3 X 2 = 30 WAYS
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• in an agricultural field trial, how many ways can 3 red, 4 yellow,
and 2 blue treatment flags be arranged in a line to form distinct
signals
 permutation w/ identical objects

solution:
9!
 1260
3! 4! 2!
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• In how many ways can a farm manager and his seven
employees be seated at a round table during a meeting?
(N-1)!  fixed circular permutation
SOLUTION: (8-1)! = 7! = 5040

• What if the manager and the process engineer are always


seated next to each other?

(7  1)!  2 P2  6!  2!  1440
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• What if 2 out of seven employees and another 2 out of the
remaining 5 are always seated next to each other?

(6  1)!  2  2 P2  480
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• In how many can you arrange 8 pellets of different colors into
a revolver (gun)?
 free circular permutation

Solution:

(8  1)! 7! 5040
   2520
2 2 2
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• If all questions are to be answered in a true-or false quiz of 10
questions, in how many ways may the entire quiz be answered?

2  1024
10

• How many numbers of three unique (different) digits less than 500
can be done from numbers 1 to 7?
4 X 7 X 7 = 196
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COUNTING TECHNIQUES PROBLEMS


• In a five-card poker game, how many possible ways can you be dealt
with a full house (three of a kind and two of a kind?

(4C3)x(13C1)x(4C2)x(12C1)
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• Consider the random experiment of observing the distribution of
defective gears for a four-gear machine used in fiber production.
Knowing that the chance of having a good gear (G) is equal to the
chance of having a bad gear (B):

QUESTION 1: What is the probability that exactly two gears are good?
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• What is the probability that exactly two gears are good?
Ω= all possible sets of two gears
USE FPC TO COUNT N(Ω)= 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 =16
E = event of selecting two good gears
USE COMBINATION TO COUNT  N(E)= 4C2=6
ANSWER: P(E) = 6/16
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• COMPUTING PROBABILITY
• as previously discuss, this requires counting the possible
outcomes of event desired (E) over counting all possible
outcomes (Ω).

• we can also use probability theorems for faster


computations and if the probabilities of the outcomes are
already presented.
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY THEOREMS

• P
COMPLEMENT:
( E C
)  1  P ( E )
“NOT” P( E1  E2 )
P( E1 | E2 ) 
P ( E2 )
• CONDITIONAL: “GIVEN, WHEN, IF”
P ( E1  E2 )  P ( E1 | E2 )  P ( E2 )
• INTERSECTION: “AND”
P ( E1  E2 )  P ( E1 ) P ( E2 )
• CORROLARY: , IF INDEPENDENT
P( E1  E2 )  P ( E1 )  P ( E2 )  P ( E1  E2 )
• UNION: “EITHER OR”
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• Consider the random experiment of observing the distribution
of defective gears for a four-gear machine used in fiber
production. Knowing that the chance of having a good gear
(G) is equal to the chance of having a bad gear (B):

QUESTION 2: What is the probability that at least one gear is a G?


PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
What is the probability that at least one gear is G?
SOLUTION 1:
We can get the probability of having one good gear + probability
of two + probability of three + probability of four, but this will
take time.
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
What is the probability that at least one gear is G?
SOLUTION 2:
We can instead use event complement, get the probability that
there is no good gear and subtract it from P(𝝮) =1.
USING ,
P(at least) = 1 – P(less than one G)
SO, P(at least 1 G) = 1 – P(less than 1 G)
= 1 – P(no G)
= 1- (4C0/16) = 15/16
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• The probability that a car C will be functional in 20 years is 0.7,
and the probability that car N will be functional in 20 years is 0.9.
If we assume independence for both, what is the probability that
neither will be functional in 20 years?

• The keyword is “neither” which means not either C or N


• What theorem(s) can we use?
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• The probability that a car C will be functional in 20 years is
0.7, and the probability that car N will be functional in 20
years is 0.9. if we assume independence for both, what is the
probability that neither will be functional in 20 years?
• SOLUTION:

= 1 – [0.7 + 0.9 – (0.7 X 0.9)] = 0.03


PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• The probability that a students correctly answers a particular question
(W) in an exam is 0.78. Given that the student answers a question
incorrectly, the probability that the students will still pass the exam (L)
is 0.55. what is the probability that the student answers a question
incorrectly and still pass the exam?
• THE KEYWORDS ARE
• ”NOT”  “INCORRECTLY” MEANS ”NOT CORRECT”
• “GIVEN”
• “AND”  THE STUDENT ANSWERS INCORRECTLY AND STILL PASS
THE EXAM
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• The probability that a students correctly answers a particular question
(w) in an exam is 0.78. Given that the students answers a question
incorrectly, the probability that the student will still pass the exam (L) is
0.55. What is the probability that the student answers a question
incorrectly and still pass the exam?
• THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN ARE:
• P(W)  probability of correct answer = 0.78
• P ( L | WC)  probability of the examinee passing the exam given the
examinee answers a question incorrectly = 0.55
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• The probability that a student correctly answers a particular question
(W) in an engineering exam is 0. Given that the student answers a
question incorrectly, the probability that the examinee will still pass the
exam (L) is 0.55. what is the probability that the student answers a
question incorrectly and still pass the exam?

P (W C  L)  P (W C ) P ( L | W C )
 (1  P (W )) P ( L | W C )
 (1  0.78)(0.55)
 0.121
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• The probability that a student correctly answers a particular question (W) in
an exam is 0.78. Given that the student answers a question incorrectly, the
probability that the examinee will still pass the exam (L) is 0.55.
What is the probability that the student answers a question
incorrectly and still pass the exam?
• The probabilities given are:
• probability of correct answer  P(W) = 0.78
• probability of the examinee passing the exam given the examinee answers a
question incorrectly  P ( L | WC) = 0.55
PART 3: PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
• what is the probability that the student answers a question incorrectly and
still pass the exam?
• GIVEN: P(W) = 0.78 P ( L | WC) = 0.55
• SOLUTION:
 using conditional probability
=  using event complement
=  substitute the given
= 0.121

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