Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering: Online Lectures

New Horizon College of Engineering
DEPARTMENT OF
ELECTRONICS AND COMMUNICATION
ENGINEERING
ONLINE LECTURES
FACULTY : SANTHOSH KRISHNA B V - Sr.Assist Professor
CLASS : IV ECE – VII SEM
SUB : ECE735- Artificial Intelligence & Cognitive Computing
Module :3
1
Monday, Nov
MODULE-3
Syllabi:
Statistical reasoning and Slot-Filler structures:

Symbolic Reasoning under Uncertainty, Statistical reasoning, Weak Slot and
Filler Structures, Strong slot-and-filler structure.
Monday, November 30, 2020 2

Phase-1
Symbolic Reasoning Under Uncertainty
Symbolic Reasoning
The reasoning is the act of deriving a conclusion

from certain properties using a given methodology.
The reasoning is a process of thinking; reasoning is
logically arguing; reasoning is drawing the
inference.
 When a system is required to do something, that it
has not been explicitly told how to do it must reason.
It must figure out what Monday,
it needs to know from what it 3
November 30, 2020
 Many types of Reasoning have been identified and recognized, but
many questions regarding their logical and computational properties
still remain controversial.
 The popular methods of Reasoning include abduction, induction,
model-based, explanation and confirmation. All of them are intimately
related to problems of belief revision and theory development,
knowledge absorption, discovery, and learning.

Logical Reasoning
 Logic is a language for reasoning. It is a collection of rules called Logic
arguments, we use when doing logical reasoning.
 The logic reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions from premises
using rules of inference.
 The study of logic divided into formal and informal logic. The formal logic is
sometimes called symbolic logic.
 Symbolic logic is the study of symbolic abstractions (construct) that capture
the formal features of logical inference by a formal system.
 The formal system consists of two components, a formal language plus a set
of inference rules.

 The formal system has axioms. Axiom is a sentence that is always true within
the system.
 Sentences derived using the system’s axioms and rules of derivation called
theorems.
 The Logical Reasoning is of our concern in AI.

Approaches to Reasoning
There are three different approaches to reasoning under uncertainties.

1. Symbolic reasoning
2. Statistical reasoning
3. Fuzzy logic reasoning

Symbolic Reasoning
 The basis for intelligent mathematical software is the integration of
the “power of symbolic mathematical tools” with the suitable “proof
technology”.
 Mathematical reasoning enjoys a property called monotonicity, that
says, “If a conclusion follows from given premises A, B, C… then it
also follows from any larger set of premises, as long as the original
premises A, B, C.. included.”
 Moreover, Human reasoning is not monotonic.
 People arrive at conclusions only tentatively; based on partial or
incomplete information, reserve the right to retract those
conclusions while they learn new facts. Such reasoning non-
monotonic, precisely because the set of accepted conclusions have
become smaller when the set of premises expanded.
Formal Logic
Moreover, The Formal logic is the study of inference with purely formal content,
i.e. Where content made explicit.
Examples – Propositional logic and Predicate logic.
 Here the logical arguments are a set of rules for manipulating symbols. The
rules are of two types,
1. Syntax rules: say how to build meaningful expressions.
2. Inference rules: say how to obtain true formulas from other true formulas.
 Moreover, Logic also needs semantics, which says how to assign meaning to
expressions.

Uncertainty in Reasoning
 The world is an uncertain place; often the Knowledge is imperfect which

causes uncertainty.
 So, Therefore reasoning must be able to operate under uncertainty.
 Also, AI systems must have the ability to reason under conditions of
uncertainty

Monotonic Reasoning
A reasoning process that moves in one direction only.
The number of facts in the knowledge base is always
increasing.
The conclusions derived are valid deductions and they
remain so.
A monotonic logic cannot handle,
•Reasoning by default: because consequences may be derived
only because of lack of evidence of the contrary.
•Abductive reasoning: because consequences are only deduced
as most likely explanations.
•Belief revision: because new knowledge may contradict old
beliefs.
Introduction to Nonmonotonic Reasoning
Non-monotonic Reasoning
 Non-monotonic reasoning (NMR) is based on supplementing
absolute truth with beliefs.
 These tentative beliefs are generally based on default
assumptions that are made in light of lack of evidence.
 A non-monotonic reasoning (NMR) system tracks a set of
tentative beliefs and revises those beliefs when knowledge is
observed or derived.
 The reason is, the human reasoning is non-monotonic in
nature.
 This means, we reach to conclusions from certain premises
that we would not reach if certain other sentences are
included in our premises.
Conventional reasoning systems such as first order
predicate logic are designed to work with information that
has three important properties.
a)It is complete with respect to the domain of interest.
b)It is consistent.
c)The only way it can change is that new facts can be added
as they become available. If the new facts are consistent with
all other facts that have already been asserted, then nothing
will be ever retracted from the set of facts that are known to
be true. This property is called monotonicity.
Non-monotonic reasoning systems are designed to be able
to solve problems in which above three properties may be
missing. Monday, November 30, 2020 13
In order to do this, following key issues must be addressed.
How can knowledge base be extended to allow inferences to be made
on the basis of lack of knowledge as well as on the presence of it?
How can the knowledge base be updated properly when a new fact is
added to the system or when an old one is removed?
How can knowledge be used to help resolve conflicts when there are
several in consistent non-monotonic inferences that could be drawn?

Logics for Non-monotonic Reasoning
A non-monotonic logic is a formal logic whose consequence
relation is not monotonic.
Logic is non-monotonic if the truth of a proposition may
change when new information (axioms) is added.
Allows a statement to be retracted.
Used to formalize plausible (believable) reasoning.
Example 1 :
Birds typically fly. Tweety is a bird. Tweety (presumably) flies.
Conclusion of non-monotonic argument may not be correct.

Methods of Reasoning
Generally there are three kinds of logical reasoning:
Deduction, Induction, Abduction.
1.Deduction
Example: "When it rains, the grass gets wet. It rains. Thus, the grass is
wet."
1.This means in determining the conclusion; it is using rule and
its preconditioned to make a conclusion.
2.Applying a general principle to a special case.
3.Using theory to make predictions
4.Usage: Inference engines, Theorem provers, planning.

2. Induction
Example: "The grass has been wet every time it has rained. Thus,
when it rains, the grass gets wet."
1.This means in determining the rule; it is learning the
rule after numerous examples of conclusion following the
precondition.
2.Deriving a general principle from special cases
3.From observations to generalizations to knowledge
4.Usage: Neural nets, Bayesian nets, Pattern recognition

3. Abduction
Example: "When it rains, the grass gets wet. The grass is wet, it must
have rained."
1.Means determining the precondition; it is using the conclusion
and the rule to support that the precondition could explain the
conclusion.
2.Guessing that some general principle can relate a given pattern
of cases
3.Extract hypotheses to form a tentative theory
4.Usage: Knowledge discovery, Statistical methods, Data mining.

Default Reasoning
This is a very common form of non-monotonic reasoning.
The conclusions are drawn based on what is most likely to be
true.
There are two approaches; both are logic type, to Default
reasoning: one is Non-monotonic logic and the other is Default
logic.
•Non-monotonic logic
1.It has already been defined. It says, "the truth of a
proposition may change when new information (axioms) are
added and a logic may be built to allow the statement to be
retracted."
2.Non-monotonic logic is predicate logic with one extension
called modal operator M which means “consistent with
everything we know”. The purpose of M is to allow consistency.
•Default Logic
1.Default logic initiates a new inference rule
1.Where, A is known as the prerequisite, B as the

justification, and C as the consequent.
2.Read the above inference rule as: " if A, and if it is
consistent with the rest of what is known to assume that B,
then conclude that C ".
3.The rule says that given the prerequisite, the consequent
can be inferred, provided it is consistent with the rest of the
data. Monday, November 30, 2020 20
Example :
Rule that "birds typically fly" would be represented as,
1.Which says, “If x is a bird and the claim that x

flies is consistent with what we know, then infer
that x flies".
2.The idea behind non-monotonic reasoning is to
reason with first order logic, and if an inference
cannot be obtained then use the set of default rules
available within the first order formulation.

Implementation Issues
The issues and weaknesses related to implementation of non-

monotonic reasoning in problem solving are :

How to derive exactly those non-monotonic conclusion that are
relevant to solving the problem at hand while not wasting time
on those that are not necessary.

How to update our knowledge incrementally as problem solving
progresses.
How to over come the problem where more than one
interpretation of the known facts is qualified or approved by the
available inference rules.


In general the theories are not computationally
effective, decidable or semi decidable.

The solutions offered, considering the reasoning
processes into two parts : one, a problem solver that
uses whatever mechanism it happens to have to draw
conclusions as necessary, and second, a truth
maintenance system whose job is to maintain
consistency in knowledge representation of a
knowledge base.

IMPLEMENTATION : DEPTH FIRST SEARCH
 Dependency-Directed Backtracking
 Justification based truth Maintenance systems – JTMS
 Logic-based Truth Maintenance Systems-LTMS

Truth Maintenance Systems (TMS)
Truth Maintenance Systems (TMS), also called Reason Maintenance Systems,
are used within Problem Solving Systems, in conjunction with Inference Engines
(IE) such as rule-based inference systems, to manage as a Dependency
Network the inference engine's beliefs in given sentences.

A TMS is intended to satisfy a number of goals:
Provide justifications for conclusions

Recognise inconsistencies
Support default reasoning
Remember derivations computed previously
Support dependency driven backtracking

Justification-Based Truth Maintenance System (JTMS)
It is a simple TMS where one can examine the consequences of the current set
of assumptions. The meaning of sentences is not known.
Assumption-Based Truth Maintenance System (ATMS)

It allows to maintain and reason with a number of simultaneous, possibly
incompatible, current sets of assumption. Otherwise it is similar to JTMS, i.e.
it does not recognise the meaning of sentences.
Logical-Based Truth Maintenance System (LTMS)

Like JTMS in that it reasons with only one set of current assumptions at a
time. More powerful than JTMS in that it recognises the propositional
semantics of sentences, i.e. understands the relations between p and ~p, p
and q and p&q, and so on.

Justification based truth Maintenance systems – JTMS
The JTMS is a graph implementation whereby each inference is supported by
evidence
an inference is supported by items that must be true (labeled as IN items)
and those that must be false (labeled as OUT items), things we assume
false will be labeled OUT
when a new piece of

evidence is introduced,
we examine the pieces
of evidence to see if
this either changes it
to false or contradicts
an assumption, and
if so, we change any
inferences that were
drawn from this
evidence to false, and propagate this across the graph
How a JTMS Works
 The JTMS has three operations
◦ inspection – through inspection, the JTMS can determine what
must be true for a given proposition to be true or what
assumptions underlie a proposition
◦ modification – when new evidence comes to light, modification
allows the JTMS to update its beliefs and change its
conclusion(s) – modification includes the addition or removal of
premises, and the addition of new propositions and
contradictions to assumptions
◦ updating – this propagates a modification throughout the entire
JTMS by following only those branches impacted
 It is the updating process in a JTMS that makes it more efficient
than a normal backtracker – it only backtracks where needed
(dependency-directed)
Logic based truth Maintenance systems – LTMS
 A logic based truth maintenance system (LTMS) is very similar to a JTMS.

 It differs in one important way. In a JTMS, the nodes in the network are
treated as atoms by the TMS, which assumes to relationships among them
except the ones that are explicitly stated in the justifications.

PHASE-II
STATISTICAL REASONING
•We have described several representation techniques that can be used
to model belief systems in which, at any given point in time, a particular
fact is believed to be true, believed to be false or not considered to be
either.
•But for some kinds, it is useful to be able to describe beliefs that are
not certain but for which there is some supporting evidence.
•For example, problems that contain genuine randomness. E.g. Card
Games
•Problems that could, in principle be modeled using the techniques that
we used in uncertainty. Monday, November 30, 2020 34

• For such problems, statistical measures may serve a very useful
function as summaries of the world; rather than looking for all possible
exceptions we can use a numerical summary that tells us how often an
exception of some sort can be expected to occur.
• This is useful for dealing with problems where there is randomness and
unpredictability (such as in games of chance) and also for dealing with
problems where we could, if we had sufficient information, work out
exactly what is true.
To do all this in a principled way requires techniques for probabilistic
reasoning
Statistical Reasoning

The theory of belief functions, also referred to as evidence theory
or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), is a general framework for
reasoning with uncertainty, with understood connections to other
frameworks such as probability, possibility and
imprecise probability theories.
Phase –III Weak Slot and Filler Structures

Phase –IV Strong Slot and Filler Structures


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New Horizon College of Engineering

Statistical reasoning and Slot-Filler structures:

Monday, November 30, 2020 2

The reasoning is the act of deriving a conclusion

Monday, November 30, 2020 4

Monday, November 30, 2020 5

Monday, November 30, 2020 6

There are three different approaches to reasoning under uncertainties.

Monday, November 30, 2020 7

i.e. Where content made explicit.

Examples – Propositional logic and Predicate logic.

rules are of two types,

1. Syntax rules: say how to build meaningful expressions.

Monday, November 30, 2020 9

 The world is an uncertain place; often the Knowledge is imperfect which

Monday, November 30, 2020 10

Monday, November 30, 2020 14

Monday, November 30, 2020 15

Generally there are three kinds of logical reasoning:

Deduction, Induction, Abduction.

Monday, November 30, 2020 16

Monday, November 30, 2020 17

Monday, November 30, 2020 18

1.Where, A is known as the prerequisite, B as the

1.Which says, “If x is a bird and the claim that x

Monday, November 30, 2020 21

The issues and weaknesses related to implementation of non-

Monday, November 30, 2020 26

Monday, November 30, 2020 27

Monday, November 30, 2020 28

Truth Maintenance Systems (TMS), also called Reason Maintenance Systems,

(IE) such as rule-based inference systems, to manage as a Dependency

Network the inference engine's beliefs in given sentences.

Provide justifications for conclusions

Monday, November 30, 2020 29

Assumption-Based Truth Maintenance System (ATMS)

Logical-Based Truth Maintenance System (LTMS)

Monday, November 30, 2020 30

when a new piece of

 A logic based truth maintenance system (LTMS) is very similar to a JTMS.

Monday, November 30, 2020 33

to model belief systems in which, at any given point in time, a particular

fact is believed to be true, believed to be false or not considered to be

not certain but for which there is some supporting evidence.

•For example, problems that contain genuine randomness. E.g. Card

•Problems that could, in principle be modeled using the techniques that

we used in uncertainty. Monday, November 30, 2020 34

exceptions we can use a numerical summary that tells us how often an

exception of some sort can be expected to occur.

unpredictability (such as in games of chance) and also for dealing with

problems where we could, if we had sufficient information, work out

exactly what is true.

To do all this in a principled way requires techniques for probabilistic

Monday, November 30, 2020 36

Monday, November 30, 2020 45

Monday, November 30, 2020 48

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