ECV5602

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR TRANSPORT

ASSIGMENT

Name : Mohd Erie Husairrie Bin Ismail

Matric No : GS49778
Programme : Master In Highway And Transportation
Engineering
Lecturer : Assoc. Prof. Dr. Law Teik Hua
Date : 29 December 2017
 TITLE

THE STUDY OF
VEHICLE KILOMETER TRAVEL (VKT)
AMONG MALAYSIA MOTOR
VEHICLE USERS
 OBJECTIVE
1. To determine annual vehicle kilometre travel (VKT)
among Malaysia motor vehicles users (motorcar and
motorcycle)

2. To compare annual VKT between different groups of

motor vehicles users( age, household income, gender
and etc.)

3. To investigate the impact of demographic factors

(income, age, education level) and family
characteristics (household size, number of kids and
etc.) on annual VKT.
 LITERATURE REVIEW
• Estimates of VKT are used extensively in transport planning for
allocating resources, estimating vehicle emissions, computing
energy consumption, assessing traffic impact and road safety
policy.
• VKT estimation methods can be classified in two categories:

i. Traffic measurement VKT estimation methods

- odometer reading and traffic counts
ii. Non traffic measurement methods.
- household/driver and fuel sales method.
• VKT estimation methods are more preferable because the methods
are based on actual data for vehicle movement.
 RESEARCH DESIGN
• Sample Size

- 30 samples has been selected from respondent randomly.

• Method Of Data Collection

- Personal interview has been conducted. Data collection base on

questionnaires.
- Questionnaires:
a. Odometer Reading – Reading Day 1 and Reading Day 14
b. Age
c. Gender
d. Household Income
e. Vehicle Registration Number
 RESEARCH DESIGN
QUESTIONNAIRES :

1) Respondent Name : ______________

2) Age : ______________
3) Gender : M/F
4) Monthly Income (RM) : ___________
5) Vehicle Registration Number : ___________
6) Type of Car : ____________
7) Odometer Reading
i. Reading Day 1 : ____________
Date 1 : ____________
ii. Reading Day 14: ____________
Date 2 : ____________
 RESEARCH DESIGN

DATA ANALYSIS

 Distribution of VKT

 Descriptive Statistic Analysis

 Hypothesis Test

 Multiple Linear Regression

ANALYSIS
 ANALYSIS (DATA)
Data For VKT
Registration Age Income Odometer Reading (2 weeks) VKT
No. Gender Type of Car Annual VKT
Number (years) (Range) Start Finish (2 weeks)
1 BJG 8478 Female 42 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 128,649 129,497 848 22,048
2 BKP 1388 Male 45 HONDA CRV 6000 - 7000 143,197 145,062 1,865 48,490
3 BKP 8507 Female 33 PERODUA VIVA 2000 - 3000 78,636 78,919 283 7,358
4 BKQ 8738 Male 32 PROTON PERSONA 3000 - 4000 79,149 80,073 924 24,024
5 BNA 6070 Female 34 SUZUKI SWIFT 3000 - 4000 65,045 65,183 138 3,588
6 BNC 660 Female 36 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 67,981 68,797 816 21,216
7 BNC 8708 Female 29 HONDA HRV 5000 - 6000 50,087 51,093 1,006 26,156
8 RM 3948 Male 35 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 62,053 63,052 999 25,974
9 RM 8500 Male 33 HONDA HRV 5000 - 6000 55,709 57,307 1,598 41,548
10 WKX 69 Male 45 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 192,698 193,589 891 23,166
11 WNE 3045 Female 31 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 178,456 179,384 928 24,128
12 WNM 7952 Male 38 PROTON GEN-2 3000 - 4000 156,987 157,970 983 25,558
13 WSY 8140 Female 32 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 156,987 157,519 532 13,832
14 WTF 7175 Male 39 TOYOTA WISH 4000 - 5000 145,782 146,854 1,072 27,872
15 WTL 658 Male 34 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 143,202 144,350 1,148 29,848
16 WUH 4655 Male 38 TOYOTA WISH 4000 - 5000 127,895 129,256 1,361 35,386
17 WUJ 3781 Female 29 PERODUA VIVA 3000 - 4000 125,897 126,424 527 13,702
18 WUJ 6432 Female 32 HONDA CITY 4000 - 5000 119,486 120,612 1,126 29,276
19 WUQ 1931 Male 31 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 113,654 114,782 1,128 29,328
20 WUS 4651 Female 30 PERODUA VIVA 2000 - 3000 80,721 81,097 376 9,776
21 WUV 9697 Female 36 HONDA CITY 4000 - 5000 95,198 95,930 732 19,032
22 WVK 442 Male 39 PROTON PERSONA 3000 - 4000 89,231 90,469 1,238 32,188
23 WVP 242 Male 36 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 78,636 79,619 983 25,558
24 WWA 7832 Female 35 TOYOTA VIOS 3000 - 4000 78,348 79,308 960 24,960
25 WXC 852 Male 28 PROTON SAGA 2000 - 3000 77,324 78,068 744 19,344
26 WXF 3553 Male 38 TOYOTA WISH 5000 - 6000 62,878 64,369 1,491 38,766
27 WXH 2064 Male 47 PROTON EXORA 3000 - 4000 62,451 63,721 1,270 33,020
28 WXJ 3396 Female 33 TOYOTA VIOS 4000 - 5000 59,712 60,857 1,145 29,770
29 WXJ 8975 Female 27 PROTON SAGA 2000 - 3000 48,064 48,577 513 13,338
30 WYC 8371 Female 27 PROTON SAGA 2000 - 3000 43,879 44,714 835 21,710
31 WA 8014 B Male 45 TOYOTA WISH 5000 - 6000 34,769 36,098 1,329 34,554
32 WB 7467 E Female 31 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 26,204 26,838 634 16,484
33 WB 3107 P Male 43 NISSAN X-TRAIL 5000 - 6000 11,987 13,278 1,291 33,566
34 WB 7345 S Male 31 TOYOTA VIOS 4000 - 5000 8,842 10,264 1,422 36,972
35 WC 2843 B Female 33 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 6,903 7,891 988 25,688
36 WC 3042 B Female 32 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 6,842 7,664 822 21,372
 DISTRIBUTION OF VKT
 Range of VKT is 48,490 - 3,588 = 44,902
 Use 5000 for each class = 44,902/5000 = 8.98 ≈ 9 classes
Class Class Interval Midpoint Frequency Relative Frequency

3500 - 8500 3500 - 8499 6000 2 0.056

8500 - 13500 8500 - 13499 11000 2 0.056

13500 - 18500 13500 - 18499 16000 3 0.083

18500 - 23500 18500 - 23499 21000 7 0.194

23500 - 28500 23500 - 28499 26000 9 0.250

28500 - 33500 28500 - 33499 31000 6 0.167

33500 - 38500 33500 - 38499 36000 4 0.111

38500 - 43500 38500 - 43499 41000 2 0.056

43500 - 48500 43500 - 48499 46000 1 0.028

TOTAL 36 1
 DISTRIBUTION OF VKT

Histogram
10

6
Frequency

0
6000 11000 16000 21000 26000 31000 36000 41000 46000

Annual VKT

The histogram shows that the VKT can be assume have a normal distribution.
 DISTRIBUTION OF VKT

The result shows

The distribution of
that the VKT of It showed by the
VKT was analysed
the sample is plot of
using Histogram
normally Histogram.
method.
distributed.
 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC
 Analysis by Descriptive statistic shows the result as follows:

Descriptive Statistic
Mean 25238.77778
Standard Error 1599.079891
Median 25558
Mode 25558
Standard Deviation 9594.479345
Sample Variance 92054033.89
Kurtosis 0.283118292
Skewness -0.034723758
Range 44902
Minimum 3588
Maximum 48490
Sum 908596
Count 36
 HYPOTHESIS TEST

 Hyphothesis Test 1
– To Compare Annual VKT Between Gender

 Hyphothesis Test 2
– To Compare Annual VKT Between Household
Income
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1

Hypothesis Test 1
– To Compare Annual VKT Between Gender

Ho : There is no significant difference in the average of

annual VKT between male and female drivers.
Ho : µm - µf = 0

H1 : There is a significant difference in the average of

annual VKT between male and female drivers.
H1 : µm - µf ≠ 0
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)
Population
Yes No
normally
distributed

Yes Sample No Yes Sample No

size size
large? large?

Population Population Population Population

Yes variance No Yes variance No Yes variance No Yes variance No
known?
known? known? known?

z t or z z t z z . .
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)
Population normally distributed; large sample size > 30; population
variance unknown; population variance equal

Assume level of significance = 0.05

Ho : µm - µf = 0, H1 : µm - µf ≠ 0

Degree of Freedom, df = 36 – 2 = 34

Critical Region :
t < t0.025, 34 = (2.021 + 2.042)/2 = -2.032
t > t0.025, 34 = (2.021 + 2.042)/2 = 2.032
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)
Data for Male Driver:
Odometer Reading (2 weeks)
Registration Age Income VKT Annual
No. Gender Type of Car
Number (years) (Range) Start Finish (2 weeks) VKT
1 BKP 1388 Male 45 HONDA CRV 6000 - 7000 143,197 145,062 1,865 48,490
2 BKQ 8738 Male 32 PROTON PERSONA 3000 - 4000 79,149 80,073 924 24,024
3 RM 3948 Male 35 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 62,053 63,052 999 25,974
4 RM 8500 Male 33 HONDA HRV 5000 - 6000 55,709 57,307 1,598 41,548
5 WKX 69 Male 45 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 192,698 193,589 891 23,166
6 WNM 7952 Male 38 PROTON GEN-2 3000 - 4000 156,987 157,970 983 25,558
7 WTF 7175 Male 39 TOYOTA WISH 4000 - 5000 145,782 146,854 1,072 27,872
8 WTL 658 Male 34 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 143,202 144,350 1,148 29,848
9 WUH 4655 Male 38 TOYOTA WISH 4000 - 5000 127,895 129,256 1,361 35,386
10 WUQ 1931 Male 31 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 113,654 114,782 1,128 29,328
11 WVK 442 Male 39 PROTON PERSONA 3000 - 4000 89,231 90,469 1,238 32,188
12 WVP 242 Male 36 PERODUA ALZA 3000 - 4000 78,636 79,619 983 25,558
13 WXC 852 Male 28 PROTON SAGA 2000 - 3000 77,324 78,068 744 19,344
14 WXF 3553 Male 38 TOYOTA WISH 5000 - 6000 62,878 64,369 1,491 38,766
15 WXH 2064 Male 47 PROTON EXORA 3000 - 4000 62,451 63,721 1,270 33,020
16 WA 8014 B Male 45 TOYOTA WISH 5000 - 6000 34,769 36,098 1,329 34,554
17 WB 3107 P Male 43 NISSAN X-TRAIL 5000 - 6000 11,987 13,278 1,291 33,566
18 WB 7345 S Male 31 TOYOTA VIOS 4000 - 5000 8,842 10,264 1,422 36,972
TOTAL 565,162
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)
Data for Female Driver:
Odometer Reading (2 weeks)
Registration Age Income VKT Annual
No. Gender Type of Car
Number (years) (Range) Start Finish (2 weeks) VKT
1 BJG 8478 Female 42 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 128,649 129,497 848 22,048
2 BKP 8507 Female 33 PERODUA VIVA 2000 - 3000 78,636 78,919 283 7,358
3 BNA 6070 Female 34 SUZUKI SWIFT 3000 - 4000 65,045 65,183 138 3,588
4 BNC 660 Female 36 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 67,981 68,797 816 21,216
5 BNC 8708 Female 29 HONDA HRV 5000 - 6000 50,087 51,093 1,006 26,156
6 WNE 3045 Female 31 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 178,456 179,384 928 24,128
7 WSY 8140 Female 32 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 156,987 157,519 532 13,832
8 WUJ 3781 Female 29 PERODUA VIVA 3000 - 4000 125,897 126,424 527 13,702
9 WUJ 6432 Female 32 HONDA CITY 4000 - 5000 119,486 120,612 1,126 29,276
10 WUS 4651 Female 30 PERODUA VIVA 2000 - 3000 80,721 81,097 376 9,776
11 WUV 9697 Female 36 HONDA CITY 4000 - 5000 95,198 95,930 732 19,032
12 WWA 7832 Female 35 TOYOTA VIOS 3000 - 4000 78,348 79,308 960 24,960
13 WXJ 3396 Female 33 TOYOTA VIOS 4000 - 5000 59,712 60,857 1,145 29,770
14 WXJ 8975 Female 27 PROTON SAGA 2000 - 3000 48,064 48,577 513 13,338
15 WYC 8371 Female 27 PROTON SAGA 2000 - 3000 43,879 44,714 835 21,710
16 WB 7467 E Female 31 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 26,204 26,838 634 16,484
17 WC 2843 B Female 33 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 6,903 7,891 988 25,688
18 WC 3042 B Female 32 PERODUA MYVI 3000 - 4000 6,842 7,664 822 21,372
TOTAL 343,434
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)
Sample mean for male drivers,

x̅m = ∑ xi / n , (∑ xi = 565,162 , n = 18)

= 565,162 / 18
= 31,397.89

Sample mean for female drivers,

x̅f = ∑ xi / n , (∑ xi = 343,434 , n = 18)

= 343,434 / 18
= 19,079.67
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)

Sample Standard Deviation for male drivers,

S12 = ( 1/n-1 ) ( ∑ (xi- x̅m)2 )

= (1/17)(898,527,220)
= 52,854,542.34

S1 = √ 52,854,542.34
= 7,270.11
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)

Sample Standard Deviation for female drivers,

S22 = ( 1/n-1 ) ( ∑ (xi- x̅m)2 )

= (1/17)(957,716,578)
= 56,336,269.29

S2 = √ 56,336,269.29
= 7,505.75
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)

Population Standard Deviation

SP 2 = (n1-1)S12 + (n2-1)S22
(n1+ n2)-2
= (17)(52,854,542.34) + (17)(56,336,269.29)
34
= 54,595,405.82

Population Variance
SP = √ 54,595,405.82

= 7,388.87
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 1 (continue…)
Test Statistic :
t = ( x̅m - x̅f) – (µ1 - µ2) / Sp √(1/n1+1/n2)
= ( 31,397.89 - 19,079.67 ) / 7,388.87√(2/18)
= 12,318.22 / 2462.96
= 4.997

Conclusion :
t > t0.025, 34 = 2.032

Reject hypothesis null, there is a significant difference in the

average of annual VKT between male and female drivers.
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2
Hypothesis Test 2 (Using Excel Data Analysis Tools)
– To Compare Annual VKT Between Household Income

Ho : There is no significant difference in the average of annual

VKT between household income < RM 4000 and household
income > RM 4000.
Ho : µ1 - µ2 = 0

H1 : There is a significant difference in the average of annual

VKT between household income < RM 4000 and household
income > RM 4000.
H1 : µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2 (continue…)
Population normally distributed; large sample size > 30; population
variance unknown; population variance equal

Assume level of significance = 0.05

Ho : µ1 - µ2 = 0, H1 : µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0

Degree of Freedom, df = 36 – 2 = 34

Critical Region :
t < t0.025, 34 = (2.021 + 2.042)/2 = -2.032
t > t0.025, 34 = (2.021 + 2.042)/2 = 2.032
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2 (continue…)
No. Annual VKT for Household Income < 4000 Annual VKT for Household Income > 4000
1 7,358 27,872
2 9,776 35,386
3 19,344 29,276
4 13,338 19,032
5 21,710 29,770
6 22,048 36,972
7 24,024 26,156
8 3,588 41,548
9 21,216 38,766
10 25,974 34,554
11 23,166 33,566
12 24,128 48,490
13 25,558  
14 13,832  
15 29,848  
16 13,702  
17 29,328  
18 32,188  
19 25,558  
20 24,960  
21 33,020  
22 16,484  
23 25,688  
24 21,372  
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2 (continue…)
Step 1:
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2 (continue…)
Step 2:
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2 (continue…)
Result :
  Variable 1 Variable 2
Mean 21133.66667 33449
Variance 58607299.36 60053074.55
Observations 24 12
Pooled Variance 59075050.16
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 34
t Stat -4.531991797
P(T<=t) one-tail 3.44355E-05
t Critical one-tail 1.690924255
P(T<=t) two-tail 6.88709E-05
t Critical two-tail 2.032244509 
 HYPOTHESIS TEST 2 (continue…)

Conclusion :

t statistic = -4.53 < t0.025, 34 = -2.032

Reject hypothesis null. Therefore there is a significant

difference in the average of annual VKT between
household income < RM4000 and > RM4000
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

Dependent Variable
= Annual VKT

Independent Variable
= Gender, Age and Household Income
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)

Gender Age Monthly Income

No. Annual VKT
Male = 1; Female = 0 (years) >4000 = 1; <4000 = 0
1 0 42 0 22,048
2 1 45 1 48,490
3 0 33 0 7,358
4 1 32 0 24,024
5 0 34 0 3,588
6 0 36 0 21,216
7 0 29 1 26,156
8 1 35 0 25,974
9 1 33 1 41,548
10 1 45 0 23,166
11 0 31 0 24,128
12 1 38 0 25,558
13 0 32 0 13,832
14 1 39 1 27,872
15 1 34 0 29,848
16 1 38 1 35,386
17 0 29 0 13,702
18 0 32 1 29,276
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)

Gender Age Monthly Income

No. Annual VKT
Male = 1; Female = 0 (years) >4000 = 1; <4000 = 0
19 1 31 0 29,328
20 0 30 0 9,776
21 0 36 1 19,032
22 1 39 0 32,188
23 1 36 0 25,558
24 0 35 0 24,960
25 1 28 0 19,344
26 1 38 1 38,766
27 1 47 0 33,020
28 0 33 1 29,770
29 0 27 0 13,338
30 0 27 0 21,710
31 1 45 1 34,554
32 0 31 0 16,484
33 1 43 1 33,566
34 1 31 1 36,972
35 0 33 0 25,688
36 0 32 0 21,372
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)
Result/ Output :

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.812727966
R Square 0.660526747 Adjusted R2
Adjusted R Square 0.62870113
Standard Error 5846.328659

Observations 36
Significance F

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 2128145305 709381768.3 20.75456189 1.18508E-07
Residual 32 1093745881 34179558.79

Total 35 3221891186      
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)
Result/ Output :

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept, βo 9483.048919 7018.44388 1.351161181 0.186120103 -4813.053439 23779.15128

Gender, β1 9000.630141 2267.477594 3.969446121 0.000381601 4381.929424 13619.33086

Age, β2 232.0789774 214.6372939 1.081261197 0.287662499 -205.1228833 669.2808381

Income, β3 9417.288653 2153.069907 4.37388894 0.000121224 5031.628769 13802.94854

Independent P value
Variables, β
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)

Conclusion:

 Adjusted R2 = 0.63

 R2 close to 1 indicate good fit

 R2 = 0.63 means that 63% of annual VKT can be

explained by gender, age and household income
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)

Conclusion:

 F (20.75) > Significance F (1.18E-07). Therefore the

result is reliable (statistically significant)

 P Value for age is more than 0.05 which it is not

statistically significant. P value for gender and income
are less than 0.05 which it is significant. Therefore in
this modelage can be consider to remove in regression
model.
 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (continue…)

Regression Line:
Y = 9,483.05 + 9,000.63X1 + 232.08X2 + 9,417.29X3
Where: Y = Annual VKT; X1 = Gender; X2 = Age; X3 = Income

1. When X1, X2 and X3 are zero, the estimated values of Annual VKT
is 9,483.05.
2. When X2 and X3 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual
VKT increase by 9,000.63 for every 1 unit increase in gender.
3. When X1 and X3 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual
VKT increase by 232.08 for every 1 unit increase in age.
4. When X1 and X2 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual
VKT increase by 9,417.29 for every 1 unit increase in income.