The Idea of Earthquake

Prediction
• Time-independent hazard-random process
in time: used for building design, planning,
insurance, probability
• Time-dependent hazard-a degree of
predictability, enable authorities to prepare
for an event-false alarms- loss of public
confidence, China- shut down of public
services during false alarms
 Earthquake
Predictions
• The 1960’s- descriptions of physical
changes
• 1970’s- 1975, successful prediction; 1976,
250,000- people died in Tangshen, China
• 1980s- Jim Berkland, fluctuations of
missing dogs in local newspapers, increase
number of calls to satellite TV companies
• Greek scientists, electrical signals
 Haichen, China, 1975
• An evacuation warning was issued the day
before
• The local rural population was educated and
aided in the monitoring
• changes in land elevation and ground water
• reports of peculiar animal behavior- snakes
coming out of the ground in January,
livestock not going into their barns
• an increase in small earthquakes
 The Idea of Earthquake
Prediction or Forecasting
• 1977- National Earthquake Hazards
Reduction Program (NEHRP)
• 1. Precursor detection instruments at the site
• 2. Detect and recognize precursors
• 3. Get colleagues to agree, accept and put
out a warning
 Earthquake Forecasts
• Earthquake forecasting- some connection
between the level of chance between
observation and event; probabilities and
errors involved
• Scientists cannot predict earthquakes
– Evacuation before an event since 1975 has
not occurred
 Long-term Forecasts
• Retrofitting
• Building codes
• Legislation
• Insurance
• Emergency plans
• Education to the public
• Preparedness
Long-term Forecasting Methods
 • Identify fault trace
Paleoseismicity • Trench
• Analyze sedimentary
layers and offsets
• Date organic material
 Historical Seismicity Patterns

• Large Bay Area earthquakes are more frequent at

some times more than others
• 1836-1911; 1911-1979 (68 years of no events)
 • Statistical Method of
Recurrence historic earthquakes
• Shortest interval:
Interval • Longest interval:
• Average: 25.5 years
• Parkfield Seismic Area
• Problems with this
• 1988-90% probability for
method?
a M6 earthquake
• 1901
• 1922: 21 years
• 1934: 12 years
• 1966: 32 years
• 2004: 38 years
 Paleoseismology and recurrence
interval
• Pallet Creek offset • Shortest interval?
• 1857
• 1745: 112 years • Longest interval?
• 1470: 275 years
• 1245: 225 years • Average?
• – 187 years
1190: 55 years
• 965: 225 years Strengths of this method:
• 865: 100 years
• 545: 320 years • Shortcomings?
Seismic Gaps -areas on a larger fault
system that lack seismicity
 Variation of average movement on
known faults
• Bay Area faults belong to
the San Andreas fault
system
• Movement varies
• Right-lateral strike-slip
faults
• 1868- Hayward fault
• 1906-San Andreas fault
• 1989-San Andreas fault
 Variation of average movement on
known faults

• Bay Area faults move at

different rates to
accommodate the total
amount of slip of the San
Andreas fault system
• Total+ 34 mm/year
• SAF 19 mm/yr
• Hayward fault 9 mm/yr
 Earthquake Prediction and
Variation of average movement on
Probability
known faults
• Each vector represents
the amount of
movement on each
fault
• Variations may
indicate an imminent
earthquake
Pattern of Seismicity
 Earthquake Forecasting and
Probability
• Working Group on California Earthquake
Probabilities
• Group of 100 geologists, engineers,
government officials evaluated all
information
• Came up with a probability of a magnitude
7 or greater in the next 30 years
• 1988. 1999, 2003, 2008
 Earthquake Forecasting and
Probability
• Assumes a random distribution of
earthquakes
• In the Bay Area, 5 earthquakes greater or
equal to M 6.75 occur approximately every
30 years
• 50% probability-just as likely to happen as
not to happen
 The Idea of Earthquake
Forecasting
• Loma Prieta- 30% probability in 1988- eq, 1989
• Parkfield -90% probability in 1988-eq, 2004
• Landers, Northridge, Kobe- earthquake on a little
known fault
Short-term Prediction based on
precursors
 All the described precursors
sometimes occur but as of yet do
not occur in a manner that
successfully predict earthquakes
 What should be expected?

• A reasonable time period

• The location- fault or fault segment
• Magnitude or amount of energy
released
 Ground Deformations
• Ground deformation
• Preceding the 1906
earthquake in Marin
County-elastic rebound
theory
• The Palmdale bulge-
monitoring began in the
1960’s , associated with
the SAF
 Radon Gas Emissions
• Radon emission- a radioactive gas that
sometimes shows an increase preceding an
earthquake-
• There was a ten-fold increase 30 kilometers
away from the epicenter 9 days preceding
the earthquake.
• Problem with this method?
 Parkfield Experiment

• Examining precursors
or those events that
sometimes occur
before a main event
• Changes in physical
properties in close
proximity to the fault
 Parkfield experiment

• Magnitude 6 earthquake occurred on

average every 22 years from 1857-2004
• Similar location
• Similar seismic wave pattern recorded

Hopes of documenting an earthquake before,

during, and after the main shock in order to
produce a short-term prediction technique.
 Precursors expected to observe
• Foreshocks
• Ground deformation

Surface cracks
associated with
the 2004
earthquake
San Andreas Fault
Observatory at Depth: 2004

Examining physical changes to

the rocks at depth
 Animal Prediction

• Unusual animal behavior prior to a disaster

• Greece, 373 BC, rats, snakes and weasels
deserted days before an earthquake
• Advanced vibrations?
• Change in electrical charges?
• Change in magnetic field?
• So far, unable to use unusual animal
behavior to predict earthquakes
Chi Chi Earthquke,
Taiwan, 1999

• Initial smaller earthquake during the first 4

seconds have higher frequency waves than
larger earthquake
• The warning could be sent
• Seismic waves travel at about 2 miles per
second
 Early Warning System

• Detect P-wave arrival

• Warning system
• Emergency centers, hospitals, railways
• Depends on distance to how helpful
• Japan-March , 2011, M9, Tokyo-stopped trains;
cell phone notification; 8-10 minutes tsunami
• Kobe-fault under city
• Mexico-11 warnings, M6 or greater
 Early Warning System: U.S.
• $80 dollars over 5
years
• 30 seconds:
• Arrival of P-waves
– doctors stop surgery;
• 3-4 minutes: Cascadia – Duck and cover
Subduction Zone – Trains stop
• 1 minute warning for
SAF