HUMAN POPULATION

This lecture will help you understand:

 Human population growth

 Different viewpoints on this growth
 Population, affluence, and technology’s effects
 Demography
 Demographic transition
 Factors affecting population growth
 The HIV/AIDS epidemic
 Population and sustainable development
Central Case Study: China’s One-Child Policy

 In 1970, China’s 790 million people were exhausting

their resources and faced starvation if growth continued
 The government instituted a one-child policy
 The growth rate plummeted
 The policy is now less strict
 The successful program has had unintended
consequences
 Killing of female infants and an imbalance in male to
female ratios
 Increasing number of elderly and fewer young people in
the workforce
Our World at Seven Billion

 Populations continue to rise in most countries,

particularly in poverty-stricken developing nations
 Growth in poorer nations leads to stresses on
society, the environment, and people’s well-being
 China’s stringent policies have greatly slowed
growth there, but other countries may wish to slow
their growth without the measures used by China
 India’s growth continues and if not changed will
surpass China’s population
It would take 30 years, counting once each second, to count
to a billion! It would take 210 years to count to 7 billion!
The human population is growing rapidly

 Our population grows by over 70 million each year

 It took until 1800 to reach 1 billion
 In 1930 (130 years later) we reached 2 billion
 We added the most recent billion in 12 years
 Growth rates vary from country to country
 Some countries are over 3%, while other country’s
populations are shrinking
 The current world growth rate is 1.2%
 At this rate, the human population of the planet would
double in 58.3 years
Is population growth a problem?

 Better technology, sanitation, medication, and

increased food supply have increased growth
 Death rates drop, but not birth rates
 Infant mortality rate = the death rate in children; has
dropped dramatically
 Population growth was seen as good
 Support for elderly, a larger labor pool
 Thomas Malthus’s An Essay on the Principles of
Population (1798)
 Humans will outstrip food supplies
 War, disease, starvation reduce populations
Is population growth a problem?

 Neo-Malthusians: population growth will increase faster

than food production; cause famine and conflict
 Paul Ehrlich’s Population Bomb (1968) predicted that
civilization would end by the end of the 20th century
 Intensified food production fed more people
 Cornucopians argue that we will continue to find new
resources and technology to support people
 Environmental scientists argue that there are finite
resources
 Land is limited, extinct species are gone forever
 Quality of life will suffer with unchecked growth
 Less space, food, wealth per person
Some national governments now fear falling
populations
 Policymakers believe population growth increases
economic, political, and military strength
 But growth is correlated with poverty, not wealth
 Strong, rich nations have low growth rates
 Weak, poor nations have high growth rates
 Some nations offer incentives for more children
 Elderly need social services
 66% of European governments think their birth rate
is too low
 49% of non-European nations feel their birth rates are
too high
Population is one of several factors that affect
the environment
 The IPAT model: I = P × A × T × S
 Total impact (I) on the environment results from:
 Population (P) = individuals need space and
resources
 Affluence (A) = greater per capita resource use
 Technology (T) = increased exploitation of resources,
but also pollution controls and renewable energy
 Sensitivity (S) = how sensitive an area is to human
pressure (e.g., arid land vs. rainforest)
 Further model refinements include the effects of
education, laws, and ethics on the formula
Population is one of several factors that affect
the environment
 Impact equates to pollution or resource consumption
 Humans use 25% of Earth’s net primary production
 Technology has increased efficiency and reduced
our strain on resources, resulting in further
population growth
 For example, increased agricultural production
 Modern China’s increasing affluence is causing:
 Increased resource consumption
 Farmland erosion, depleted aquifers, urban pollution
Demography

 Demography = the application of population

ecology to the study of change in human populations
 All population principles apply to humans
 Environmental factors limit population growth
 There is a carrying capacity for all species, including
humans
 Humans raise the environment’s carrying capacity
through technology
 How many humans can the world sustain?
 1 billion to 33 billion: prosperity to abject poverty
 Population growth can’t continue forever
Demography is the study of human population

 Demographers study:
 Population size
 Density and distribution
 Age structure
 Sex ratio
 Birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates
 Population size
 Current world population is just over 7 billion
 Estimated to grow to over 9 billion by 2015
Population density and distribution

 Population size alone does not tell whole story

 People are not distributed equally over the planet
(clumped distribution)
 Highest density: temperate, subtropical, tropical
biomes and close to water
 Cities are local high-density areas
 Lowest density: away from water, extreme
environments
 Increased density impacts the environment
Age structure

 Age structure describes the relative numbers in each

age class within a population
 Age structure diagrams (population pyramids) show
age structure
 Wide base denotes many young
 High reproduction, rapid population growth
 Even age distribution: remains stable as births keep
pace with deaths
 Narrow base denotes fewer young than old
 Population will likely decline over time
Age structure

 Many populations are getting older

 Median global age today is 28, but it will be 38 by
2050
 The elderly will need care and financial assistance
 Taxes will increase for Social Security and Medicare
 But fewer dependent children may mean lower crime
rates, and the elderly can remain productive
Age structure

 China’s age structure is changing

 In 1970, the median age was 20; by 2050 it will be 45
 By 2050, over 300 million will be over 65
 Fewer people will be working to support social
programs to assist the elderly
Sex ratios

 Unequal sex ratios can impact population growth

 Human sex ratios at birth slightly favor males
 For every 100 females born, 106 males are born
 In China, 120 boys were reported for 100 girls
 Culture values males over females
 The government’s one-child policy
 Females have been selectively aborted
 The undesirable social consequences?
 Many single Chinese men
 Increased risk of HIV
 Teenage girls are kidnapped and sold as brides
Population change results from birth, death,
immigration, and emigration
 Whether a population grows, shrinks, or remains
stable depends on rates of birth, death, and
migration
 Birth and immigration add individuals
 Death and emigration remove individuals
 Technological advances caused decreased deaths
 The increased gap between birth and death rates
resulted in population expansion
Population change results from birth, death,
immigration, and emigration
 Immigration/emigration have become more
important
 War, civil strife, and environmental degradation cause
people to flee their homes
 Each year, 25 million refugees escape poor
environmental conditions
 This movement causes environmental problems
 No incentives to conserve resources
 Overall global growth rate has declined in recent
years
 But world population continues to grow
Total fertility rate influences population growth

 Total fertility rate (TFR) = the average number of

children born to each female
 Replacement fertility = the TFR that keeps the size
of a population stable (about 2.1)
 TFR has been decreasing in many nations due to:
 Industrialization
 Improved women’s rights
 Quality health care
 In Europe as a whole, TFR is now 1.6
 Natural rate of population change = change due
to birth and death rates alone (no migration)
Many nations are experiencing the
demographic transition
 In countries with good sanitation, health care, and
food, people live longer
 Life expectancy = average number of years that an
individual is likely to continue to live
 Has increased with reduced rates of infant mortality
 Demographic transition = a model of economic
and cultural change
 Explains the declining death and birth rates in
industrializing nations
 Populations undergo four stages
Many nations are experiencing the
demographic transition
 Pre-industrial stage = in pre-industrial societies,
both birth and death rates are high
 High birth rate to compensate for high infant mortality
 Population growth is slow
 Transitional stage = declining death rates due to
increased food production and medical care
 Birth rates remain high since people are not used to
the low infant mortality rates
 Population grows quickly
Many nations are experiencing the
demographic transition
 Industrial stage = birth rates fall as jobs provide
opportunities for women outside the home and
children are not needed in the workforce
 Difference between birth and death rates shrinks
 Population growth slows
 Post-industrial stage = birth and death rates are
low and stable
 Population stabilizes or even shrinks
Is the demographic transition a universal
process?
 It has occurred in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Japan,
and other nations over the past 200–300 years
 But it may or may not apply to developing nations
 The transition could fail in cultures that:
 Place greater value on childbirth
 Grant women fewer freedoms

For people to attain the material standard of living of

North Americans, we would need the natural
resources of four and a half more Earths
Population and Society

 Many factors affect fertility in a given society:

 Access to family planning
 Rates of infant mortality
 Levels of women’s rights
 Level of affluence
 Importance of child labor
 Government support for retirees
Family planning is a key approach for
controlling growth
 Family planning = efforts to control the number and
spacing of children; the greatest single factor
slowing population growth
 Clinics offer advice, information, and contraceptives
 Birth control = effort to control the number of
children born by reducing the frequency of
pregnancy
 Contraception = deliberate prevention of pregnancy
through a variety of methods
 Rates range from less than 10% (14 countries in
Africa) to 84% (China)
Family planning is a key approach for
controlling growth
 Low use of family planning may have different
causes
 Rural areas may have limited availability
 Religious doctrines or cultural influences may reject
family planning
 Family planning gives women control over their
reproductive window = time frame where a woman
can become pregnant
 Potential to produce 25 children during the window
 Family planning may delay first reproduction, space
births, or “close” the window when desired family size
is achieved
Family-planning programs are working around
the world
 Funding and policies that encourage family planning
lower population growth rates in all nations,
regardless of level of industrialization
 Thailand’s educational-based approach to family
planning reduced its growth rate from 2.3% to 0.5%
 Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Cuba, and other developing
countries have active programs
 These entail setting targets and providing incentives,
education, contraception, and reproductive health
care
Empowering women reduces fertility rates

 Where women are freer to decide whether and when

to have children, fertility rates fall, and children are
better cared for, healthier, and better educated.
 Fertility rates drop most noticeably when women
gain access to contraceptives and family-planning
programs
 As women receive educational opportunities, fertility
rates decline
 Two-thirds of the world’s illiterate are women
 Education leads to delayed childbirth as women
pursue careers
Increasing affluence lowers fertility

 Poorer societies have higher population growth rates

 Consistent with the demographic transition theory
 High fertility to ensure some children would survive
and be able to contribute to farm labor
 More affluent societies can provide:
 Better medical care, reducing infant mortality
 Education for children (removing them from the
workforce and making them an economic liability)
 Social security for the elderly
 Educational opportunities for women
Increasing affluence lowers fertility

 Poverty exacerbates population growth; population

growth exacerbates poverty
 In 1960, 70% of all people lived in developing
nations
 As of 2010, 82% live in these nations
 99% of the next billion will be born in these nations
 Population growth in poor nations increases
environmental degradation
 Farming degrades soil in arid areas (Africa, China)
 Poor people cut forests, deplete biodiversity, and hunt
endangered species (e.g., great apes)
Expanding wealth can increase the
environmental impact per person
 Affluent societies have enormous resource
consumption and waste production
 People use resources from other areas, as well as
from their own
 Ecological footprints are huge
 People in affluent societies have larger ecological
footprints
 One American has as much environmental impact as
3.8 Chinese or 8 Indians or 14 Afghans
 Not only is the world population increasing, but the
consumption per person is also rising
Expanding wealth can increase the
environmental impact per person
 Biocapacity = the amount of biologically productive
land and sea available to us
 Ecological deficit = ecological footprint > biocapacity
 Ecological reserve = ecological footprint < biocapacity
 We are running a global ecological deficit
 Humanity’s global ecological footprint exceeds
biocapacity by 50%
 The richest 20% of the world’s population uses 86%
of the world’s resources
Population goals support sustainable
development
 1994 UN conference on population and development
 Rejected top-down, command-and-control approaches
that pushed contraceptives and preset targets
 Urged education and health care
 Urged addressing social needs (like poverty, sexism)
from the bottom up
 To generate a high quality of life for all people,
developing nations must slow population growth
 Developed nations must reduce resource consumption
Conclusion

 The human population is larger than at any other time

 Rates are decreasing but populations are still rising
 Most developed nations have passed through the
demographic transition
 Expanding women’s rights slows population growth
 How will the population stop rising?
 The demographic transition, governmental
intervention, or disease and social conflict?
 Sustainability requires a stabilized population to avoid
destroying natural systems and leave a quality world