Weather Forecasting

Dr. Shahzada Adnan

Course Code: RSG-607
 What is forecasting ?

 To predict for future.

WEATHER FORECSTING
 It means to predict the nature of weather
for future time it may be in hours ,days ,
months or years.
MEATHODS OF FORECASTING
 Important methods for weather
forecasting are:

 PERSISTENSE METHOD
 TREENDS METHOD
 ANALOG METHOD
 CLIMATOLOGY
 NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
Persistence Method
(Todays = Tomorrow)

 Assumes that the conditions that exist

today will be the conditions that exist
tomorrow.
TRENDS METHOD
(USING MATHEMATICS)
 The trends method involves determining
the speed and direction of movement for
fronts, high and low pressure centers, and
areas of clouds and precipitation .
500 mb Chart for 4 AM Sunday
Surface Weather Map for 4 AM Monday
CLIMATOLOGY
 The Climatology Method is another simple
way of producing a forecast.  This method
involves averaging weather statistics
accumulated over many years to make the
forecast. 
The climatic variability
Analog Method:
 The Analog Method is a slightly more
complicated method of producing a
forecast.  It involves examining today's
forecast scenario and remembering a day
in the past when the weather scenario
looked very similar (an analogy). 
Numerical Weather Prediction
   Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
uses the power of computers to make a
forecast.  Complex computer programs,
also known as forecast models, run on
supercomputers and provide predictions
on many atmospheric variables such as
temperature, pressure, wind, and rainfall. 
Weather Forecasting Tools
 Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD)

Satellites in polar and geostationary orbits

    (GOES)
Radar
 Radar works by sending out microwave pulses
which bounce back when they encounter an
object.
 The object then shows up as a pattern on the
radar screen. The presence of precipitation and
its distance show up as an echo on the radar
screen.
 The strength of the signal is determined by the
amount of precipitation and can be color coded.
Red is heaviest rain.
Doppler Radar or NEXRAD

Next generation Radar

 The Doppler shift works with light waves as
well as sound waves and causes a shift in
frequency as an object moves towards or
away from an observer.
Microwaves used in Doppler radar indicate if
raindrops are moving toward or away from the
radar.
Doppler radar is more sensitive than traditional
radar and different levels of precipitation can be
detected flowing in different directions.
The different motions are color coded so When
there is sharp change in direction it shows up as a
sharply contrasting color.
This contrast can indicate a severe storm is
present, even a tornado.
 Examining Thunderstorms
 Use Doppler radar:
– Pulse of microwave energy sent out
– Beam travels through atmosphere
– If the beam hits an object, then some of
the energy is reflected back to the radar
Satellite Images
METREOLOGICAL SATELLITES
ARE USED FOR WEATHER
FORECASTING
ADVANTAGES

 AGRICULTURE
 AVIATION
 MILITARY USES
 ENVIREMENT
 GLOBAL CHANGES