Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Economy: introduction
The purpose of this introduction is two-fold:
thus
1−[1/ (1+ i ) ] n
$Vt = $ z t
1−[1/ (1+ i )]
We are interested in computing the expected
present discounted value when future payments and
interest rates are uncertain
1 1
$Vt = $ z t + $ z t +1 +
e
$ z e
t +2 + ⋅⋅⋅
(1+ i t ) (1+ it )(1+ i t +1 )
e
Δct+1
Δct
ct
E t (v t +1 + dt +1 )
vt =
(1 +σ )
Da cosa dipende il valore di
un’azione?
σ =irf + ρ
dove
irf = tasso di interesse risk-free
r = premio per il rischio dell’attività
The components of an interest
rate: the risk-free rate
The risk-free rate (denoted as irf) is approximately the yield on
short-term Treasury bills
– Includes the pure rate and an allowance for inflation
Viewed as a conceptual floor for the structure of interest rates
The Inflation Adjustment
– Inflation refers to a general increase in prices
– Refers to the fact that, if prices rise, $100 at the beginning of the year
will not buy as much at the end of the year
– If you loaned someone $100 at the beginning of the year, you need to
be compensated for what you expect inflation to be during the year
Interest rates include estimates of average annual inflation over loan
periods
The components of an interest
rate: risk premiums
Default risk: refers to the chance that the lender will not
receive the full amount of principal and interest payments
agreed upon;
Therefore (1 + r ) = 1 + it
t
1 + π et
Over-time:
π > g m gm - π < 0 i
Medium-run:
r = rn; Y=Yn; U=Un; π = gm; i = rn + gm
Fisher Hypothesis
To summarize, in the medium run money
growth does not affect the real interest rate, but
the nominal interest rate increases one for one
with inflation. This result is known as the
Fisher effect, or the Fisher Hypothesis.
The increase in
inflation from the early
1960s to the early
1980s was associated
with an increase in the
nominal interest rate.
The decrease in
inflation since the mid-
1980s has been
associated with a
decrease in the
nominal interest rate.
Nominal vs Real Interest Rates,
and Present Values
1 1
$Vt = $ z t + $ z t +1 +
e
$ z e
t +2 + ⋅⋅⋅
(1+ it ) (1+ it )(1+ i t +1 )
e