Bio 2129 Lecture 2: what is

science?
• What do scientists
try to do?
• Is there a method for
doing good science?
• What distinguishes
the scientific
perspective from
other ways of
“knowing” the
world?
1
 What is science?
• The accumulation of
knowledge about the Cause
world through the
testing of causal
theories.

• A causal theory is a
statement about the
cause(s) of observed Effect
phenomenon. (Observed)

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2
 The scientific method
“A method of procedure that
has characterized natural
science since the 17th century,
consisting of systematic
observation, measurement
and experiment, and the
formulation, testing and
modification of hypotheses”.
(Shorter Oxford English
Dictionary, 2003)

BIO 2109 Ecology

Isaac Newton
3
 The scientific method

Hypothesis
Deduction

Predictions
Induction
Experiment

Conclusions Observations
Inference

BIO 2109 Ecology 4

 Explanations (theories)
for observed phenomena
• Two types of
explanations: Observed phenomena
“scientific”, based (what we want to explain)
on application of the
scientific method,
and “non-scientific”
(for example, appeal Scientific Non-scientific
to received wisdom). explanations explanations
(theories) (theories)
• But what exactly is a
“scientific” theory?

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5
What makes a “scientific” theory?
• According to Sir Karl Popper,
all scientific theories must be
refutable, at least in principle.
• A refutable theory is one for
which, at least in principle,
there are empirical
observations which could be
inconsistent with the theory.
• So testability = refutability
(falsifiability)
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6
 Scientific theories, revisited

• So, for most

Refutable Unrefutable
scientists, theories theories
scientific theories
are those which,
in principle, can
be refuted Scientific Non-scientific
(falsified) by explanations explanations
empirical testing. (theories) (theories)

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7
Einstein’s general theory of relativity
• Prediction from the General Theory (1916)
that light passing close to a massive object
should be red-shifted (longer wavelengths).
GRAVITATIONAL RED SHIFT

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8
Einstein’s General Theory: predictions
• Much later in the 20th century, the
technology was developed to
estimate the mass of different parts
of the universe, and look at the
degree to which light from these
regions was red-shifted.
• Observed red-shifts in relation to
mass matched those predicted by
general relativity.
• So, GR made predictions that could not be tested when the
theory was first proposed (i.e. were testable only in principle).
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 How does science work?

• By eliminating potential
hypotheses Hypotheses
(explanations) for what
we want to explain.
• “Testing” some
hypothesis means
seeing whether its
predictions match what What
What we
we want
want to
to
we observe. explain
explain
BIO 2109 Ecology
L1.10
 Hypotheses and predictions
• Hypothesis: a statement
about the cause(s) of
some observed pattern. If the light bulb
is burnt out (H)…

• Prediction: the empirical

pattern one will see if the
hypothesis is true.
… then the light will
work if the old bulb
• Deduction : the logical is replaced (P).
connection between
hypothesis and
prediction. BIO 2109 Ecology
11
 Deduction
• Deduction: if the
axioms are true, the All swans are white.
conclusion is This bird is a swan.
necessarily true
(reasoning from  This bird is white.
general to particular).
If (this is a swan) then (it is white).
This bird is a swan.

 This bird is white.

BIO 2109 Ecology
12
 Induction
• Induction: even if all the axioms are true, the
conclusion is not necessarily true (reasoning
from the particular to the general).

This bird is a swan &

it is white …
… and this bird is a swan
& it is white …

 All swans are white.

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13
The logical syllogisms
If P then Q If P then Q

P -P

Q -Q

If P then Q If P then Q

Q -Q

P -P

BIO 2109 Ecology L1.14

 Hypotheses and predictions,
revisited
• If the hypothesis could  If a logical fallacy has been
committed, then the result is …
be true, yet the  poor science.
prediction not be
observed, then …
• … the prediction is not
derived deductively
from the hypothesis,
and the result is …
• poor science.

BIO 2109 Ecology

L1.15
A simple example: why the bathroom
light doesn’t work
Hypotheses

Power What we want

off to house to explain

Bulb burnt
out Light switch on,
but no light
Short in circuit

BIO 2109 Ecology

 Hypotheses, experiments and
predictions
Hypothesis Experiment Prediction

Light bulb burnt Replace bulb with Light will work

out new bulb

Power off to house Try other electric No other switch

switches will work

Short in circuit Replace bulb with New bulb will blow

new bulb &/or breaker will
trip

BIO 2109 Ecology 17

 Are the predictions really
predictions?
Hypothesis Experiment Prediction

Light bulb burnt Replace bulb with Light will work

out new bulb

Power off to house Try other electric No other switch

switches will work

Short in circuit Replace bulb with New bulb will blow

new bulb &/or breaker will
trip

BIO 2109 Ecology

 Steps
1. Define a question – preferably not a dull one.
- and one that can be answered!

Where do questions come from?

“The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One
cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates
the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous
structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely
to comprehend a little of this mystery every day.
Never lose a holy curiosity.” -Einstein
Why do skippers visit vetch so frequently?

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.19

 Example
• Why does the sun cross the sky every day?

Photo: J. Kerr. Australian sunset in Northern Territory

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.20

 Steps
1. Question

2. Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3

• Example: sun
– H1: Apollo
– H2:
– H3:

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.21

 Where do these hypotheses
• Observations originate?
– Induction
– From specific cases  general rule (i.e. generalizations)
• it is cloudy  it will rain (a generalization)
• I have observed 8 cabbage white butterflies (Pieris rapae)
in this habitat 
This habitat can
only support
cabbage white
butterflies.

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.22

Where do hypotheses originate?

• Imagination and intuition

– dreams (example: Kekulé and the chemical
structure of benzene)
– LSD (example: Timothy Leary – ‘Turn on, tune
in, drop out’)
– “The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the
rational mind is a faithful servant. We have
created a society that honors the servant and
has forgotten the gift.”
–Albert Einstein

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.23

 Steps
1. Question

2. Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3

3. Prediction A Prediction C Prediction D

Prediction B Prediction D Prediction E

To test these hypotheses, you need:

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.24

 Steps
1. Question

2. Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3

3. Prediction A Prediction B Prediction D

Prediction B Prediction C Prediction E

4. Observations: A – true, B – true

C – uncertain D – true
E – false

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.25

 Steps
1. Question

2. Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3

3. Prediction A Prediction B Prediction D

Prediction B Prediction C Prediction E

4. Observations: A – true, B – true

C – uncertain D – true
E – false

5. Conclusions:

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.26

 So, the scientific method
(abbreviated!)…
• Ask a question (that is exciting, at least to
someone)
• Propose a hypothesis (derived using
inductive reasoning)
• Deduce the predictions of the hypothesis
• Make observations that test the predictions
• Eliminate false hypotheses (i.e. progress!)

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.27

 Scientific method, cont…
• Does one get to the truth using science?

• Even a very well supported hypothesis (a

‘theory’) can be rejected, in principle.

• What distinguishes science from other

approaches to gaining knowledge?

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.28

Example:Cholera 19th century

• What causes
cholera?

Le choléra à Québec
J. Légaré 1837
Museum of Art

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.29

 Cholera – Victorian remedies
•Cholera in Zimbabwe - update 4
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_06_09/en/index.html
•9 June 2009 -- As of 30 May 2009, 98 424 suspected cases, including 4 276 deaths (Case
Fatality Rate of 4.3%) have been reported by the Ministry of Health and Child Welfare
(MoHCW) of Zimbabwe since August 2008. Fifty-five out of 62 districts in all 10 provinces
have been affected.
•The number of cases reported per week has decreased from over 8 000 cases per week
at the beginning of February 2009 to about 100 cases per week at the end of May 2009.
The weekly Case Fatality Rate has also decreased from its peak of near 6% in January
2009, to 1.5% for the week ending 30 May 2009. In the week ending 30 May 2009, 68
new suspected cases and one death were reported, compared to 140 cases and two
deaths during the earlier week.
•The cholera epidemic appears to be coming to an end but efforts still need to be
maintained, especially in the few districts that continue to report cholera cases. The
epidemiological situation should be monitored closely and control measures already put
in place should be sustained.
•The World Health Organization (WHO) and its Global Outbreak Alert and Response
Network (GOARN) partners have been working with the Ministry of Health of the
Government of Zimbabwe with cholera control efforts across the country. WHO and
GOARN partners include the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research,
Bangladesh; Burnet Institute in Australia; the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine and Health Protection Agency in the UK; US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention; and the National Board of Health and Welfare, Sweden. Non-governmental
organizations such as Médecins sans Frontières, the Red Cross and others have been key
in supporting MoHCW in treating patients across the country at a time when many health
facilities were not fully functional.

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.30

 “King” Cholera
Question: What causes cholera?

(This is not a “dull or piffling” question,

using Medawar’s criterion!)

Answer: For the cholera outbreak in

London, 1854, Dr. John Snow correlated
cholera cases with well distributions. The
answer: something in the water from a
particular well causes the disease. Cure:
take off the well handle, which ended
the outbreak.

BIO 2109 Ecology 31

 Example: Eutrophication
• What determines
phytoplankton
abundance?

Baptist Lake, AB
Eutrophic

Lac Petit Poisson Blanc, PQ

Oligotrophic

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.32

 Example: Eutrophication

• Making the question operational:

– What distinguishes lakes that are chlorophyll-rich
from lakes that are chlorophyll-poor?

• Hypotheses:

• Predictions:

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.33

 Example: Eutrophication

Dillon & Rigler

University of Toronto

1. Identify the pattern

BIO 2109 Ecology 34
Example: Eutrophication
N+C+P

N+C

Schindler et al.
Lake 226, ELA

2. Test the pattern, such as with an experiment.

BIO 2109 Ecology 35
Balancing realism and simplicity
• “Ockham’s razor”: Pluralitas
non est ponenda sine
necessitate
– This is also known as the “law of
parsimony” – simpler hypotheses are
better.

• However, “Everything should

be made as simple as
possible, but no simpler” William of Ockham
- Albert Einstein ~1288-1349

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.36

 Complex ecological systems
What causes phytoplankton to grow?
• Real systems
Sun Temperature
– Many constituents
– Many interactions Decomposition of pH
organic matter
– Indirect effects
• Sometimes, the real
cause of a +

phenomenon cannot Nutrients Herbivores

+ -
be identified.
Phytoplankton

BIO 2109 Ecology L2.37

 Complex ecological
systems

• Predictive power
– Example:
– log10 (chl concentration)
= 1.583 log10 (P) – 1.134

• "Predictive power [is] the strongest evidence

that the natural sciences have an objective grip
on reality.’’
Gottfried & Wilson, Nature 1997
BIO 2109 Ecology L2.38
Raphael’s “School atBIOAthens”
2109 Ecology (courtesy of Wikipedia) L2.39