KING ABDULAZIZ UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
Engineering Research Skills IE694

Estimation of the Oil Demand

Domestically in Saudi Arabia in 2050

Prepared by
Maein M. Abreen (1401465)
Supervised by
Dr. Omar Seraj AbuRazizah
Table of Content

• Introduction
• Methodology
• Result & Discussion
• Conclusion & Recommendation
Introduction

 Crude oil the most natural valuable resource

 The largest crude oil exporter in 2013

 Domestic Oil consumption is increasing by 5% annually.

 Electrical Demand is increasing by 7.1% annually.

 Currently Consuming 30% of oil production domestically.

 2009: Start Import the Gasoline & Diesel from global market.

 The most polluted air in the Middle East and Africa

Purpose:

Study the impact of rapid growth of Oil domestic consumption to

the overall production up to 2050
Data collection

 Annual Electrical Demand

 Annual Water Demand
 Annual imported Vehicles
 Annual Production & Consumption of Gasoline & Diesel
 Annual Population growth
 Annual Production of Oil
 Annual Consumption of Oil in Power Plant of SEC & SWCC
Factors led Consumption to be high:

 Economy of the country

 Population Growth

 Improved conditions for individuals

 local needs for air conditioning

 Low price of energy, water & gasoline

Methodology

 Used Time Series Analysis for projection

 Used Minitab software

RESULT & DISCUSSION
Population
Scatterplot of Population vs Year
45

2040 = 42.71 million

Population of Saudi Arabia (million)

40

35

30 2014 = 30.3 million

25

20

15

10

5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year

Current Population Expected Population

Industrial Sector

No. of Industries + Expected in 2025

14000
12000 11681

10000
Industries

8000 6871
6000
3916
4000
2000
0
2005 2015 2025
Water Demand
W a t e r (m illio n cu b ic m e t e r)

The Production of Water

3500.0

3000.0

2500.0

2000.0

1500.0

1000.0

500.0

0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Saudi Arabia biggest producer of desalinated water in the world

Water Demand

daily-consumed water per person (liter)

267.03
217.57
182.35

175.01
167.35

160.47
146.09
142.18
140.21
133.89

134.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 Automotive

Imported Vehicles
1200.0
981.9 1006.3
Vehicles (Thousand)

1000.0

800.0 736.0
702.3
737.2

616.6 630.7
575.1 556.0
600.0
417.5
400.0 323.3 298.9 324.4

200.8 210.6
200.0 154.7
97.4 91.1 98.6

0.0
995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

There is a car for every two people in the Kingdom

Automotive
Prediction of Gasoline Production vs Consumption
1600 Variable
production
1400 consumption

1200
Thausend berral /day

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
year
Automotive

Prediction of Diesel Production vs Consumption

Variable
Production
2000
Consumption
Thausend berral /day

1500

1000

500

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Demand of Electricity

Growing in Electricty Demand in Saudi Arabia

70000

60000

50000
Peak deand (MW)

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Demand of Electricity
Electrical Demand of Saudi Arabia (MW)
Quadratic Trend Model
Yt = 12609 - 352×t + 60.31×t^2
Variable
225000 Actual
Fits
200000 Forecasts

175000

150000
MW

125000

100000

75000

50000

25000

1985 1994 2003 2012 2021 2030 2039

Year
Demand of Electricity

Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000
KWh/Capita

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

9 71 9 73 9 75 9 77 9 79 9 81 9 83 9 85 9 87 9 89 99 1 9 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 001 0 03 0 05 007 0 09 0 11 013

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Demand of Electricity
 Demand of Electricity

Electricity Subscribers
8

5
Subscriber (million)

0
87 9 88 9 89 9 90 9 91 9 92 9 93 9 94 9 95 9 96 9 97 9 98 999 0 00 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 09 0 10 011 012 0 13 0 14
19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Demand of Electricity

Subscribers in the Service of Electricity

Quadratic Trend Model
Yt = 2.3032 + 0.01560×t + 0.005931×t^2
Subscribers in the Service of Electricity (million)

Variable
20 Actual
Fits
Forecasts

15 Accuracy Measures
MAPE 1.97986
MAD 0.07133
MSD 0.00744
10

0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Demand Relationship

Population CO2
Growth

Increase Water Increase Energy More Oil Increase

Consumption Consumption Consumption transportation
Demand

Expansion
Industrial
Activities CO2
 C O 2 e m is s io n ( m illio n m e t r ic t o n )
CO2 emission

450 427
400
358
350
314
300

250 235 240

200

150
98 98
100 84

50 43
15
0 Jordan Ukraine Turkey United Arab Egypt Korea, France Germany Saudi India
Emirates South Arabia
CO2 emission
Oil Production & Domestic Consumption
Oil Production & Domestic Consumption
Oil Production & Domestic Consumption
Oil Production & Domestic Consumption
Projection Crude Oil Production
Double Exponential Method
40000 Variable
Actual
Fits
30000 Forecasts
95.0% PI

20000
C2

10000

-10000

-20000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Oil Production & Domestic Consumption
Projection of Oil Consumption
Growth Curve Model
Yt = 655.341 × (1.04407^t)
14000
Variable
Actual
12000 Fits
Forecasts

10000
Barrel/Day

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1980 1991 2002 2013 2024 2035 2046
Year
Oil Production & Domestic Consumption
Production
Consumption
Projection of Oil Consumption vs Production
2047
14000

12000 12120

10000
Barrel/day

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year

Saudi Arabia is net oil importer by 2047

Conclusion

 Saudi Arabia is net oil importer by 2047

 Problem of oil consumption is an international problem in the last decade.

 Low price water & energy encourage people and industrial to consume more

 Economic collapse will happen before 2047

Recommendation

 Solar Energy

 Public Transportation

 Energy saving lamps

 Bioenergy

 Dams
THANKS FOR LISTENING