Does China’s Belt and Road

Initiative Threaten Food Security

in Central Asia?

GROUP 9
Amna Naveed
Hira Akram
Suffyan Rasheed
Introduction
 China’s Belt and Road Initiative – a USD 1 trillion project and
Xi’s key foreign policy initiative
 A prismatic lens offered by Central Asia to study changes due
to BRI
 The Challenge of food-water nexus
 Historical Perspective:
 A key setting of ancient Silk Road
 Krushchev’s Virgin Lands Campaign
 How the changing dynamics are affecting the food supply and
water resources of Central Asian communities?
Cont…
 Chinese engagement in Central
Asia in 21st century –
Twentyfold increase in trade
through BRI
 Interests of China’s
Agribusiness;
◦ To improve production
◦ Provision of new sources of
foods for Chinese markets
 Kazakhstan – best agricultural
land
BRI in Central Asia
 Strong relations with elites but problematic in terms of
social perceptions
 Public Perception about unstated and uneconomic

implications of BRI
 Cancellation of Ata-Bashi Chinese-Kyrgyz Logistics

Centre
 Contested nature – lack of salient details, ignored

social implications, intentional malleable interpretation

and definition
 Rise of Sinophobia – animosity of locals towards the

Chinese
Central Asian Drylands
 Complex physical geography, semi-arid and continental
arid climate, droughts, hot summers and severe winters
 Drastic Impacts of Infrastructural projects under BRI
 BRI projects may reconfigure the food system yet the
Central Asian food security is poor
Food Security
 Central Asia- one of the highly vulnerable region in terms of food
insecurity
 Factors

◦ Agricultural policies where cash crops like cotton is prioritized over

food crops
◦ Poor agricultural practices leading to soil contamination due to
excessive use of agro chemicals
◦ Soil erosion resulting in reduced crop yields
◦ Extensive over-intensive farming techniques inherited from the Soviets
 China is also experiencing a different kind of food insecurity

◦ Increase in demands which can be attributed to growing incomes

◦ Chinese policies of cultivating in less productive northern and western
regions
Water
 Source of trans-boundary contestation
 Higher withdrawal rates for agriculture, building of

new dams, increase in salinity, and the drying of the

Aral Sea
 Water dispute resolution arrangements

◦ Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia

◦ Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia
 China’s desire to access water resources complicates
the water dynamics in Central Asia- case of Ili in
Kazakhstan
Climate
 Hotspot of climate change
 Glaciers of Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains, which are

the main source of the Amu and Syr Darya Rivers, have
shrunk by 40%
 Constant water supply has emerged as a challenge

◦ Increase in frequency of droughts,

◦ Degradation of water resources
◦ Increase in demand
Central Asian Scenario
 Memories of great Kazakh Famine has affected the
national perceptions of food supply and farming, making
them more sensitive to the matters related to foreign
investment particularly in Kazakhstan
 Protests against Chinese acquisitions of farmlands can be
analyzed through this nationalist perspective
 The Chinese role in agriculture is perceived by the public
to be affecting food sovereignty
Method
 GIS technique to analyze the changes in the land cover in
the areas where BRI projects are being completed.
 Land cover analysis ideal to quantify change across large
geographic areas and helps in identifying changes, like
that of urbanization and agriculture intensification
 How land cover is changing along these BRI transport
corridors to get a sense of what is unfolding across vast
Central Asia?
Results
 Food security is affected in a complex
manner
 Lack of agricultural growth
 Lots of Urban Growth
Reasons
 Lack of Chinese Interest
 Economic market statistics
 Corruption and Incompetence
Implications
 No help to Food Security
 May eventually lead to further worsening
 Due to factors that were more complicated

than what we initially considered

 The scope of the study falls short in showing

the exact qualitative implications, but hints

through anti Chinese feelings.