June 2020

GLOBAL
PEACE
INDEX
2020
Measuring peace in a complex world
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IEP International Offices

SYDNEY NEW YORK BRUSSELS THE HAGUE MEXICO CITY HARARE

Australia USA Belgium The Netherlands Mexico Zimbabwe

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The Global Peace Index

Now in its Ranks

14 th
year 163 99.7%
countries of world’s population
covered

Using Guided and

23
Developed by the overseen by a
Institute for panel of
Economics and International
Indicators weighed Peace Experts
on a 1-5 scale

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The Global Peace Index Indicators

6 1 7
measures of measures of measures of
ongoing domestic societal safety militarisation
and international and security
conflict

0
Including: number Including: military
Including: intensity of
of refugees and expenditure,
organized internal
IDPs, impact of number of armed
conflicts, relations with
terrorism, homicide service personnel,
neighbouring countries
and incarceration ease of access to
and number of deaths
rates small weapons
from conflict
01.
Key
Findings
The Global Peac Index Indicators

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2020

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2020 Key Highlights

81
The average level of global country countries became
peacefulness has deteriorated by more peaceful

0.34%
This is the ninth deterioration in
80 countries deteriorated

the last 12 years. Improvements were driven by

changes in:
• Terrorism Impact
• Homicides
• Weapons Imports and Exports
Deteriorations primarily driven by
changes in:
• Political Terror Scale
• Refugees and IDPs
• Intensity of Internal Conflict

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 2020 highlights

Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world

Azerbaijan and Armenia had the largest improvement

Russia and Eurasia had the largest regional improvement

Europe remains the most peaceful region, despite ongoing

political instability and a small deterioration in peacefulness

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 2020 highlights - continued

Afghanistan remains the world’s least peaceful nation. It has

now been deteriorating for over a decade
Benin and Nicaragua had the largest deteriorations

South America and Central America had the largest

regional deteriorations

Middle East and North Africa remains the least peaceful

region. However, it did improve on deaths from terrorism and
internal conflict

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 10 most peaceful countries

ICELAND CANADA
1 Rank change: 6 Rank change:

NEW ZEALAND SINGAPORE

2 Rank change: 7 Rank change:

PORTUGAL CZECH REPUBLIC

3 Rank change:
8 Rank change: 1

AUSTRIA JAPAN
4 Rank change:
9 Rank change: 2

DENMARK SWITZERLAND
5 Rank change: 10 Rank change:

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 10 least peaceful countries

AFGHANISTAN SOMALIA
163 Rank change: 158 Rank change: 3

SYRIA LIBYA
162 Rank change:
157 Rank change:

IRAQ CONGO, DRC

161 Rank change: 1
156 Rank change:

SOUTH SUDAN CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

160 Rank change: 1 155 Rank change: 3

YEMEN RUSSIA
159 Rank change: 154 Rank change:

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 5 most improved countries

ARMENIA
RANK: 99
Rose 15 places
AZERBAJIAN
RANK: 120
Rose 12 places

SOUTH AFRICA BAHRAIN

RANK: 123 RANK: 110
Rose 9 places
HONDURAS Rose 3 places
RANK: 119
Rose 4 places

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 5 most deteriorated countries
BENIN
RANK: 106
Fell 35 places

CHILE
RANK: 45
NICARAGUA Fell 17 places
RANK: 135 NIGER
Fell 15 places
RANK: 138
Fell 11 places
VENEZUELA
RANK: 149
Fell 4 places

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02.
Trends in
Peace
Peace since 2008
Peacefulness has declined year on year for nine of the last 12 years.

GPI SCORE
OVERALL SCORE TREND

Less Peaceful ->

2.12

2.10

2.08

2.06
<- More Peaceful

2.04

2.02
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
A x is Tit le

YOY % CHANGE

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Improvements and deteriorations, 2008-2020

81
countries
became less
peaceful Peace declined
2.49%
79
countries Over the last
became more decade
peaceful

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Rising inequality in Global Peace

C H A N G E IN G P I S C O R E (2 0 0 8 = 1 )
The gap between the least and most peaceful countries continues to grow.

L es s P ea cefu l ->

1.15

1.10

1.05

1.00
< - M o r e P ea cefu l

0.95

0.90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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 Trends in key Safety and Security indicators
After peaking in 2014, deaths from terrorism are now at the lowest level in a decade

Almost 70 million people have now been displaced by violence

The average global homicide rate continues to fall

R A T E P E R 100,000
TOTA L D EA THS

50,000,000
REFUGEES AND IDPS Internall
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM 45,000,000 y
40,000 HOMICIDE RATE
40,000,000 Displace 8.00
35,000
35,000,000 d People 7.80
30,000 7.60
30,000,000
25,000 7.40
25,000,000 Refugees
7.20
20,000 20,000,000
7.00
15,000 15,000,000
6.80
10,000 10,000,000
6.60
5,000 5,000,000
6.40

0 - 6.20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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 Trends in key Ongoing Conflict indicators
Battle Deaths continue to fall after peak in 2014

However, the total number of active conflicts has not fallen

The average intensity of internal conflict is still rising

NUMBER OF DEA THS

A V E R A G E IN T E N S IT Y
TOTAL CONFLICTS
180

160
INTENSITY OF INTERNAL CONFLICT
BATTLE DEATHS 140 2.60
120,000

A CTIVE C ONFLIC TS
120 2.55
100,000

100 2.50
80,000
2.45
80
60,000 2.40
60
2.35
40,000 40
2.30
20,000 20
2.25
0
0 2.20

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Trends in key Militarisation indicators
The fall in the size of armed forces now appears to be levelling off

Despite high spending by global superpowers, average military expenditure has declined

T R E N D IN D IC A T O R V A L U E S
R A T E P E R 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 P E O P L E

Weapons imports and exports have had a moderate but sustained increase

MILITARY EXPENDITURE
2.90

2.70

2.50
ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL WEAPONS IMPORTS
480
33,000

% OF GDP
2.30
460 31,000

29,000
440 2.10
27,000
420
25,000
1.90
400 23,000

1.70 21,000
380
19,000
360
1.50 17,000

340 15,000

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Civil Unrest- Highlights

From 2011 to 2019, the number of riots, general strikes and anti-government
demonstrations increased by 244 per cent globally.

The number of riots around the world increased by 282 per cent from 2011 to
2019 while general strikes increased by 821 per cent.
96 countries recorded a violent demonstration in 2019, as citizens protest
against a range of issues - economic hardship, race, police brutality and
corruption.

Europe had the largest number of protests 1,600 events from 2011 to 2018.
Sixty-five per cent of the demonstrations in Europe were nonviolent.

The impending economic recession will increase the likelihood of

demonstrations and riots.

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03.
The Economic
Value of Peace
The economic impact of violence 2020

$14.5
trillion
Which is equivalent to

10.6%
If the world decreased
violence by 10%...

of total world GDP

OR $1.45
$1909 TRILLION
Could be directed to
per person other economic activities

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Breakdown of the economic impact of violence
Military expenditure accounts for over 40% of the total economic impact of violence.

ViolentOther
Conflict crime
0.5%
2.8%
Suicide 3.6%
5.2%

Homicide
7.7%
Military expenditure
Private security 40.5%
expenditure
5.6%

Internal security
expenditure
34.1%

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04.
COVID-19 and
Peace
COVID-19 and Peace - Key Findings

Level of air travel strongly correlated with the take up of COVID-19.

Most indicators in the Global Peace Index are expected to deteriorate. The one area that may
improve is military expenditure, as countries redirect resources to propping up their economies.

Drug dealing and other types of crime have seen a temporary reduction as a result of social
isolation. However, reports of domestic violence, suicide and mental illness increased.

US and Europe are expected to see an increase in political instability.

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COVID-19 and Peace - Key Findings

US and China relations are deteriorating, affecting many multilateral organisations – WHO, WTO, UN
Security Council.

Support of UN Peacekeeping operations is likely to decrease.

Overseas Developmental Aid is likely to decrease as funds are used to support domestic economies.
Further stressing fragile countries, such as Liberia, Afghanistan, Burundi and South Sudan.

Countries with low credit ratings, such as Brazil, Pakistan, Argentina and Venezuela may not be able
to borrow enough to sustain their economic recoveries, potentially leading to greater social unrest.

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Positive Peace and pandemic recovery.
Countries with better financial conditions and higher Positive Peace are most likely to have the best
outcomes through the crisis.

Lower Finland Spain Italy

Belgium Greece
Sweden Latvia
Denmark France
Portugal Poland
Ireland
Economic Strength

Slovenia Slovakia
Netherlands Hungary
Canada Brazil
UK South Africa
Austria
-

Switzerland US Israel
Australia South Korea Indonesia
New Zealand Czech Republic Turkey
Norway Lithuania Colombia
Iceland Chile India
Germany Russia
Higher

Japan China
Estonia Mexico

Higher Positive Peace Lower Positive Peace

Source: IEP
PPI RANK

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 Interest rate responses to US recessions

E F F E C T IV E F E D S F U N D R A T E (% P A )
Past US recessions required cuts in the Fed Funds rates of five per cent. At 1.5 per cent, there is little room
for large interest rate cuts.

14.0
Pre-Recession Peak
Post-Recession Trough
12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
Firs t O il Shoc k Sec ond O il Early 1990s Dot Com Bubble G lobal Financial CO VID-19
(1973 - 1974) Shoc k (1979) Rec es sion (1990 & 9/11 Attack s Cris is (2007 - (2020)
- 1991) (2000 - 2002) 2009)
Source: Federal Res erv e Bank of St Louis

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05.
Peace and
Ecological Threat
Water-related risk by region
P ER CE NT OF CAT CH M ENT S
Water-related risks are highest in the Middle East and North Africa.

Low Low to Medium Medium to High High Extremely High

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Middle East & South Asia sub-Saharan Central Asia-Pacific Europe Russia & North America South
North Africa Africa America & the Eurasia America
Caribbean

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Food security vs. Positive Peace
Countries with low levels of Positive Peace have higher levels of food insecurity.

100

se cu rity
M or e Food
90

F o o d Secure 80

70

60

50

r = 0.91
40
 L ess Food


30
Secur e

M L
o e
20 r s
1.00 e
1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 s 5.00
P P
e POSITIVE PEACE INDEX e
a a
c c
e e
f f
u u
l l


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