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Financial Management
University Of Lahore, Gujrat Campus
So,
Then,
P1 = (D2 + P2) / (1+R)
Cash Flows
Now substituting this expression for P1 into
our previous expression for P0 , we would
have the following equation:
Po = (D1) + (D2+P2 /(1+R)/(1+R)
Po = D1/ (1+R)1 + D2/ (1+R)2 + P2/ (1+R)2
D5=$3 x 1.085 =
$3 x 1.4693 =
$4.41
Po = D0(1+g)/R-g = D1/R-g
Question…?
• P4 = P0 x (1 + g)4
• P4 = $40 x 1.064
• P4= $50.50
Reason.
To see why this is so, notice that:
P4 = D5/ R-g
However, D5 is just equal to D1 x (1 + g)4, so
we can write P4 as:
• P4 = D1(1+g)4 / R-g
• P4 = D1/ R-g X (1+g)4
• P4 = P0 X (1+g)4
Explanation
This example illustrates that the dividend growth model
makes the implicit assumption that the stock price will
grow at the same constant rate as the dividend.
What it tells us is that if the cash flows on an investment
grow at a constant rate through time, so does the value
of that investment.
If the growth rate, g is bigger than discount rate, R, then
the present value of the dividends keeps on getting
bigger and bigger. So the stock price is infinitely large.
Cont…
The same is true if growth rate and
discount rate are equal.
The expression we came up with for the
constant growth case will work for any
growing perpetuity, not just dividends on
common stock.
If C1 is the next cash flow on a growing
perpetuity, then the present value of the
cash flows is given by:
PV = C1/R-g = C0(1+g)/ R-g
C: Non-Constant Growth Stocks
• Consider the case of a company that is currently not
paying any dividends.
You predict that in 5 years, the company will pay a
dividend for the first time, say $0.50.
You expect that this dividend will grow at a rate of 10%
per year indefinitely.
The required rate of return on similar companies is 20%.
What is the price of the stock today?
Soln.
• First we calculate what it will be worth
once dividends are paid. We can then
calculate the present value of that future
price to get today’s price.
Soln.
1st dividend will be paid in 5 years and it will
grow steadily then onwards. So the price in
4 years will be:
• P4 = D4(1+g)/ R-g
• P4 = D5 / R-g
• P4 = $5
Soln.
Now we can calculate the current value by
discounting this price back four years at 20%
• After 3rd year, dividend will grow at a constant rate of 5% per year
• The required return is 10%. What is the value of the
stock today?
• A time line can be quite helpful in dealing with such a
problem of
non-constant growth.
Time line of example
Soln.
First we compute the present value of the
stock
price three years down the road
• Then add in the present value of the
dividends that will be paid between now
and then.
So the price in 3 years is:
P3 = D3(1+g)/R-g = 2.50x1.05/10%-5%
P3 = $52.50
Cont…
• We can now calculate the total value of
the stock as the present value of the first 3
dividends plus the present value of the
price at time 3, P3
Po = D1/ (1+R)1 + D2/ (1+R)2 + D3/ (1+R)3
+ P3/ (1+R)3
P0 = $1/(1.10)1 + $2/(1.10)2 +$2.5/(1.10)3
+$52.50/(1.10)3
Po = $43.88
Home Work
• Solve the total value of stock at home at
home….
NON-CONSTANT GROWTH
STOCKS:
Question…?
CR Inc.: A Case of Supernormal Growth
• The company has been growing at a phenomenal rate of
30% per year. You expect that this growth rate to last for
3 more years and the rate will then drop to 10% per year.
• Total dividends just paid were $5 million, and required
return is 20%
• If the growth rate then remains at 10% indefinitely, what
is the total value of the stock?
Soln.
• It is unlikely that a 30% supernormal
growth rate can be sustained for
any extended length of time.
• To value the equity in this company, we
first need to calculate the total dividend
over the supernormal growth period:
Year Total Dividends (millions)
1 $5.0X1.3=$6.5
2 $6.5X1.3 =$8.4
3 $8.45X1.3 = $10.98
Soln.
• The price at time 3 can be calculated as:
• P3 = D3 x (1 + g) /(R - g)
• Where ‘g’ is the long-run growth rate. So
we have:
• P3 = $10.98x(1.10)/(0.20 – 0.10) =
$120.835
Non-Constant Growth Stocks
• To determine the value today, we need the
present value of this amount plus the
present value of the total dividends:
Po = D1/ (1+R)1 + D2/ (1+R)2 + D3/ (1+R)3
+ P3/ (1+R)3
P0 = $6.5/ (1.20)1 +$8.45/(1.20)2 +
$10.98/(1.20)3 +$120.83/(1.20)3
Po = $87.58 (mill)
Components of Required Return
Let’s examine the implications of the dividend
growth model for the required return of
Discount rate R.
We calculated P0 as
P0 = D1/ (R - g)
Rearranging it to solve for R, we get
R – g = D1/P0
R = D1/P0 + g
Required Return formula
R = D1/P0 + g
R = Dividend yield + Capital gain yield
• This tells us that the total return, R, has
two components
• D1/P0 is called the Dividend Yield.
Because this is calculated as the expected
cash dividend by the current price, it is
conceptually similar to the current yield on
a bond.
Question…?
Growth rate, g, is also the rate at which the stock
price grows. So it can be interpreted as
capital gains yield
• Secondary Market
The market in which previously issued
securities are traded among
The Stock Market
Dealer
• An agent who buys and sells securities from a
maintained inventory
• It stands ready to buy securities from investors wishing
to sell them and sells securities to investors wishing to
buy them
• The price that the dealer wishes to pay is the bid price
and the price at which the dealer sells the securities is
called the strike price.
• The difference between the bid and ask price is called
the spread and that is the profit of a dealer.
The Stock Market
Broker:
An who arranges security
transactions
agent among
investors wishing to buy
investors,
securities
matching
with
investors wishing to sell securities.
If deal done between buyer and seller, the
broker will charge a fixed commission on
both parties.
They do not buy or sell securities for their
own accounts. Facilitating trades others is
Critical thinking Questions
Q#01:
Is Preferred Stock Debt?
Q#02:
Who earns more? A
dealer or a Broker?
Q#03:
In a Dividend growth
model g should be --
--- than the discount
Assignment # 3
• Check Attachment along with session
notes.
• Due date: next class (soft copy/hard
copy)