Labour Force Survey

Quarter 1 2021 Results

23 June 2021
Section 1:

Introduction
Labour Market classification in the Labour Force Survey

• The official labour market classification of respondents to the Labour

Force Survey (LFS) is based on the International Labour Organisation
(ILO) criteria

3
ILO classification in the LFS
• Employment (15+ years)
• Persons who worked in the week before the survey for one hour or
more for payment or profit, including work on the family farm or
business and all persons who were away from work during the
reference week but had a job to which they could return to

4
ILO classification in the LFS
• Unemployment (15-74 years)
• Persons who in the week before the survey, were
• without work
• available to start work within the next two weeks
• had taken specific steps, in the previous four weeks to find work

5
ILO classification and LFS
• Inactive (15+ years)
• All other persons

6
Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation
• New European regulation came into force on 01 January 2021
• Aims to ensure that social statistics based on sample surveys, e.g. the Labour Force Survey
(LFS), are produced in a more harmonised and coordinated manner across Europe
• Changes to LFS questionnaire from Q1 2021 because of the IESS regulation with some
questions added, some removed, and others have changed in terms of response options
or frequency
• The flow of the LFS questionnaire across Europe is now more prescribed and harmonised
• The LFS questionnaires for Ireland for Q1 2021 and previous quarters are available here:
https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/surveyforms/labourforcesurvey/

7
Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation
Breaks in series
• Minimal changes in Ireland
• Pilot survey
• Engagement with Methodology (CSO) and Eurostat
• Postponement of publication of the LFS for Q1 2021 to allow the CSO to analyse the
results of the pilot survey and to fully evaluate the impacts of the IESS regulation on
the LFS
• Re-engineering of existing LFS series to produce a consistent and coherent historic
LFS series for users

8
Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation
• Up to Q4 2020, the attachment (absence duration of at most three months
and/or continued receipt of at least half of their salary from their employer)
was only being tested for those who indicated that they were Away from
work because of Temporary lay-off
• All other reasons for absence from work in the reference week were being
automatically classified as Employed.
• From Q1 2021, the attachment to employment is also being tested for those
Away from work in the reference week due to parental leave, off-season and
other reasons.

9
Attachment to job
Testing for Job attachment pre and post IESS
Rules for attachment to job for absences from work
  Pre-IESS Post-IESS
Holidays No No Pre-IESS Post-IESS
Working time arrrangements No No    
Illness/disability No No Length of absence and share of Length of absence and salary payment
Maternity/Paternity No No of salary paid applied to temporary for parental leave
Job related training No No layoffs only  
Parental No Yes   Off-season - whether do any occasional
Off season No Yes   work for employer or not
Temporary layoff Yes Yes1    
Other reason No Yes   Layoffs/Other reason - length of absence
Waiting to start a new job n/a No   only

1
Post-IESS include all layoffs

10
Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation
Re-engineering historic LFS series
• Minimal impact prior to 2020
• In 2020, because of the impact of COVID-19 and Government restrictions, the
numbers who reported being Away from work in the reference week, increased
substantially and the attachment to employment is being tested for more persons
rather than being assumed for them
• The net effect is that, under the IESS FR, there are fewer persons Away from work in
the reference week being classified as Employed, which reduces the total number of
employed persons during 2020 but has a minimal impact on results prior to 2020

11
 Series comparisons
Number of Persons in Employment - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS
2,500

2,000

1,500
'000s

1,000

500

0
02 02 03 04 05 05 06 07 08 08 09 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 20
Q Q4 Q3 Q2 Q 1 Q 4 Q 3 Q 2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q 1 Q 4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q 3 Q 2 Q 1 Q 4 Q3 Q2 Q 1 Q 4
1
Pre-IESS Post-IESS

12
 Series comparisons
000s
Number of Unemployed Persons - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS
360
330
300
270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
02 02 03 04 05 05 06 07 08 08 09 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 20
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4

Pre-IESS Post-IESS
13
 Series comparisons
% Participation rate - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
02 0 2 03 0 4 0 5 05 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 8 0 9 10 1 1 11 12 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 7 18 1 9 2 0 20
1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

Pre-IESS Post-IESS
14
 Series comparisons
%
Employment rate - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS
75

70

65

60

55

50
02 02 03 04 05 05 06 07 08 08 09 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 20
1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

Pre-IESS Post-IESS

15
Series comparisons

16
 COVID-19 and the Labour Force Survey (LFS)
• The methodology in the Information Note published with the Q2 2020 LFS
results in August 2020 still applies, please see link
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/informationnote-i
mplicationsofcovid-19onthelabourforcesurvey-quarter22020update/

• COVID-19 continues to have a very significant impact on the data collection

for the LFS – LFS interviews for Q1 2021 were carried out by telephone.
• The Q1 2021 LFS results today adhere to the standard International Labour
Organisation (ILO) criteria for calculating labour market estimates

17
COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment Estimates

• COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rates and volumes have been

published as part of the Monthly Unemployment Estimates release
since March 2020
• Should be considered as the upper bound for Unemployment
• The latest COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates of Unemployment for
March 2020 to May 2021 inclusive are also published today

18
COVID-19 Adjusted Employment Estimates
• COVID-19 Adjusted Employment Estimates were first published in
the LFS in Q1 2020
• Should be considered as the lower bound for Employment
• COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates of Employment volumes for persons
15 years and over and corresponding Employment Rates for persons
aged 15-64 are included in the LFS today for the end of March 2021
to the end of May 2021

19
Section 2:
Headline Statistics
 LFS Q1 2021 headline estimates

COVID-19 Adjusted
Standard LFS Estimates
Methodology (ILO) March 2021
Indicator Q1 2021 (end of Q1 2021)
Employed persons aged 15
years and over 2,230,600 1,785,923
Employment rate for those
aged 15-64 years 65.6% 52.0%

21
 LFS Q1 2021 headline estimates
COVID-19 Adjusted
Standard LFS Estimates
Methodology (ILO) March 2021
Indicator Q1 2021 (end of Q1 2021)
Unemployed persons aged
15-74 years 170,500 612,443
Unemployment rate for
those aged 15-74 years 7.1% 25.7%

22
 LFS Q1 2021 headline estimates
COVID-19 Adjusted
Standard LFS Estimates
Methodology (ILO) March 2021
Indicator Q1 2021 (end of Q1 2021)
In labour force 2,401,100  -
Participation rate 60.0% -
     
Not in labour force 1,603,400 -

23
Labour Market Estimates – ILO criteria
• New attachment criteria ILO Status of persons away from work in Q1 2021

perhaps highlight the effect Inactive

23%
of COVID-19 better than
heretofore
• Previously most would still Unemployed
10%

have been classified as Employed

67%

employed

24
ILO Status of PUP/EWSS Recipients

Percentage of persons aged 15 years and over and in receipt of the Pandemic
Unemployment Payment (PUP) or the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) in
reference in Q1 2021 and all persons in Q1 2021 classified by ILO status, LFS Q1 2021

PUP recipients in Q1 2021 EWSS recipients in Q1 2021 All persons aged 15 years and over
  % % %
Employed 49.5 91.2 44.5
Unemployed 16.7 2.4 3.4
Inactive 33.8 6.4 52.1

25
Section 3:
Employment
 Employment and hours worked

Number of persons in employment (ILO), number of persons 'Away' from work

and Actual Hours worked per week (in millions) in Q1 2020 and Q1 2021
  Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Annual Change
Employment 2,347,200 2,230,600 -116,600 (-5.0%)
'Away' from work
(not working) 208,400 309,500 +101,100 (+48.5%)
Actual Hours Worked
(millions) 76.3 68.7 -7.6 (-9.9%)

27
 Absences from work in the reference week as a percentage of the numbers
employed by Economic Sector, Quarter 1 2019 to Quarter 1 2021

Quarter
Economic Sector Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021
% % %
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 2.9 4.8 3.3
Industry 5.0 6.3 7.5
Construction 4.9 9.4 28.4
Wholesale & Retail Trade 5.0 7.4 17.1
Transportation & Storage 5.3 9.3 16.4
Accommodation & Food Service Activities 7.1 11.4 40.8
Information & Communication 4.0 6.3 3.1
Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities 6.9 6.3 7.2
Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities 4.9 7.1 6.2
Administrative & Support Service Activities 7.0 11.3 18.2
Public Administration & Defence 5.7 6.6 6.3
Education 9.7 15.6 15.7
Human Health & Social Work Activities 6.9 10.2 12.4
Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) 6.0 12.0 36.2
All Economic Sectors 5.9 8.9 13.9 28
 Absences from work in the reference week as a percentage of the numbers employed by
Economic Sector, LFS Q1 2019 to Q1 2021
All Economic Sectors
Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation)
Human Health & Social Work Activities
Education
Public Administration & Defence
Administrative & Support Service Activities
Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities
Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities
Information & Communication
Accommodation & Food Service Activities
Transportation & Storage
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Construction
Industry
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 29

 Total actual hours worked (millions) per week by Economic Sector, LFS Q1 2019 to Q1 2021

Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation)

Human Health & Social Work Activities
Education
Public Administration & Defence
Administrative & Support Service Activities
Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities
Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities
Information & Communication
Accommodation & Food Service Activities
Transportation & Storage
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Construction
Industry
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Millions of hours worked per week

Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 30

Employment by sector
Decreases in 8 sectors
Largest rates of annual decrease:
 Accommodation & Food Services sector (-43.6% or -73,900)
 Administration & Support Services sector (-29.8% or -33,300)
 Other Activities (cultural & recreational) sector (-29.8% or -34,700)
 Construction sector (-19.1% or -28,100)
Largest rates of annual increase:
 Information & Communication sector (+9.5% or +12,200)
 Public Administration & Defence sector (+7.3% or +8,400)

31
Unadjusted Employment by gender

Q1 2021 Annual change

Males 1,200,600 -67,200 (-5.3%)

Females
Quarterly 1,030,000
change in seasonally -49,300
adjusted employment, (-4.6%)
Q3 2010 to Q3 2015

32
Annual change in full-time/part-time employment
• In the year to Q1 2021:
• Full-time : -71,300 (-3.8%) to 1,796,900
• Part-time: -45,300 (-9.5%) to 433,700 (all females)
• Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment in main job down 47,100 (-2.2%)
between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021
Annual change in Full-Time and Part-Time Employment, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021
'000 150

100
50
0
-50
-100
Change in FT employment Change in PT employment
-150
Q216

Q117

Q217

Q118

Q318

Q219

Q319

Q220

Q121
Q116

Q316

Q416

Q317

Q417

Q218

Q418

Q119

Q419

Q120

Q320

Q420
33
Part-time underemployment

Indicator Q1 2021 Annual change

Part-time 107,900 -3,400 (-3.0%)
underemployment

• Part-time underemployment accounted for 24.9% of part-time

employment in Q1 2021

34
Employment status

Indicator Q1 2021 Annual change

Self employed 281,000 -50,400 (-15.2%)
Employees 1,922,000 -81,100 (-4.1%)

35
Employment – Seasonally adjusted
• Seasonally adjusted employment was 2,250,500 in Q1 2021,
down 0.4% from 2,260,300 in previous quarter
Quarterly change in seasonally adjusted employment, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
-50.0
000's

-100.0
-150.0
-200.0
-250.0
116 216 316 416 117 217 317 417 118 218 318 418 119 219 319 419 120 220 320 420 21
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1

36
Section 4:
Unemployment
 Unemployment - unadjusted
• 170,500 persons unemployed in Q1 2021
• Unemployment up +48.6% or +55,800 over the year
• Unemployment rate up from 4.7% to 7.1% over the year
Total number of persons unemployed, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021
'000
250

200

150

100

50

0
Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q1
21
38
Unemployment by gender
Gender Indicator Q1 2021 Annual change
Males Unemployed 93,500 +29,600 (+46.4%)
Rate 7.3% +2.4 percentage points
Females Unemployed 77,000 +26,200 (+51.5%)
Rate 7.0% +2.5 percentage points

39
Unemployment - duration
• Long-term unemployment rate up from 1.3% to 1.7% over the
year
• Total number of persons classified as long-term unemployed is
now 40,800 – up 8,800 (+27.6%) from Q1 2020
• Long-term unemployment as proportion of all unemployed
now 23.9%

40
Unemployment - seasonally adjusted
• Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate up from 6.2% to 7.3%
over the quarter
• The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed is up by
27,600 (+18.2%) from 151,100 to 178,700
% Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121

41
 Latest Monthly Unemployment Estimates
Seasonally Adjusted Figures Non Seasonally Adjusted Figures

Number of Traditional
persons Unemployment Unemployment COVID-19 Adjusted
unemployed rate (%) rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
May 2020 113,100 5.1 5.3 29.8
April 2021 181,300 7.9 7.9 24.8
May 2021 174,700 7.8 8.0 21.9
Percentage Points Percentage Points Percentage Points

Change in month -6,600 - 0.1 0.1 -2.9

Change in year 61,600 2.7 2.7 -7.9

42
Section 5:
Labour Force
Labour Force
• Unadjusted
• Decreased by 60,800 (-2.5%) over the year to 2,401,100 in Q1
2021
• Participation decreased over the year from 62.2% to 60.0%
• Demographic effect +20,000
• Participation effect -80,700
• Seasonally Adjusted
• Increase of 4,900 or 0.2% over the quarter to 2,420,700 in Q1
2021

44
Section 6:
Forthcoming releases and
Summary of Q1 2021
LFS results

45
Forthcoming releases
• Monthly Unemployment Estimates (May 2021) – published today
• Monthly Unemployment Estimates (June 2021) – 30 June 2021
• Live Register (June 2021) – 02 July 2021
• Earnings Analysis Using Administrative Data Sources or EAADS for 2019 and
possibly 2020 – To be confirmed, expected in July 2021
• PxStat tables 2020 annual results for Earnings and Labour Costs will be updated
when the EAADS is published
• LFS Q2 2021 – To be confirmed
• Earnings and Labour Costs for Q2 2021 – To be confirmed

46
Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation
Actions by Ireland
• The CSO have re-engineered the historic LFS series to take account of the main
changes to the LFS series in Ireland due to IESS
• Users were advised about this work on the historic LFS series in the following
information note which was published recently:
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/implicationsoftheimpleme
ntationoftheintegrationofeuropeansocialstatisticsiessframeworkregulationonlab
ourmarketstatisticsinirelandin2021/
• The changes to the historic LFS series are minimal and mainly affect the series in
2020 as they relate to the treatment of those who are absent from work in the
reference week where the attachment to employment is being tested for
additional reasons for the absence
47
Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation
Actions by Ireland (continued)
• The revised historic LFS series is being made available to users today in the LFS
release tables and on the PxStat database dissemination service
• Additional material is also being made available with the LFS results today to
demonstrate the size of the effect on key labour market indicators
• The CSO will continue to monitor the LFS series throughout 2021 and engage
with Eurostat to ensure that any breaks in series have been removed
• Users will be kept informed if further updates are required to the historic LFS
series

48
 In summary….
• Results for Q1 2021, like previous quarters, have been compiled
according to ILO definitions and concepts
• The effects of COVID-19 continue to be apparent from the results. Over
the year, employment fell by 116,600 while unemployment increased
by 55,800
• The effect of increased public health restrictions during the quarter was
also evident
• In Q1 2021, seasonally adjusted employment was down just under
10,000 from Q4 2020 while unemployment rose by 27,600

49
 In summary….
• The average number of hours actually worked each week in Q1
2021 was 68.7 million hours, down 9.9% or 7.6 million hours per
week from a year earlier
• The results show that for a number of sectors the hours worked
were near Q1 2019 levels but for others, the considerable adverse
effect of the pandemic is evident
• Absences from work during the reference week were just under
310,000 in Q1 2021 compared to just over 208,000 in Q1 2020

50
• Any questions?

51
Thank You.