Towards a Sustainable World

• 1. Conventional Worlds
• 2. Barbarization
• 3. Great Transitions
 The Futures of Humanity
• Conventional Worlds
Conventional Development scenario
• Situation left as it is.
• Solution led to market mechanisms.
• Little or no collective efforts.
• Limited success of birth control policies.
• Generation of wealth, but unfair distribution.
• Consequences
• Growth of inequalities and environmental degradation.
• Potential instability and environmental collapse.
The Futures of Humanity
 The Futures of Humanity
• Balanced Growth
• Legislation and policy intervention:
• Strengthen management systems.
• Ensure widespread use of better technology.
• Provide greater social equity and environment protection.
• Same patterns of production and consumption.
• Notions of global governance.
• Consequences
• Less demographic growth and environmental damage.
• May not be enough to curb major global environmental issues.
• Socialism.
The Futures of Humanity
 The Futures of Humanity
• Barbarization
Breakdown
• Neo-Malthusian perspective.
• Case of destructive anarchy.
• Governmental and social failures.
• “Mad Max” scenario.
• Consequences
• Environmental and social deterioration:
• Scarcity, violence, and massive migration.
• Unchecked population growth.
• Economic collapse:
• Drastic fall in global population levels.
• Loss of institutions, productive capacity, and technology. 
The Futures of Humanity
 Barbarization
• Fortress World
• Authoritarian “solution”.
• Conflicts between the rich and the poor:
• A minority of the elite in privileged enclaves.
• Protect their way of life by forcibly imposing limits and social controls on the
impoverished majority.
• Seizing control of critical natural resources for exclusive use.
• Restricting access to information and technology.
• Consequences
• Unchecked demographic growth.
• Social stratification.
• Instability of a “Fortress” system may push the world into a
“Breakdown” situation. 
Barbarization
Great Transitions
• Eco-communalism
• Deep green utopian vision.
• Strong collective efforts towards small-scale.
• Emphasis:
• Bio-regionalism.
• Localism and face-to-face democracy.
• Small technology and economic autarky.
• Consequences
• Population and economic scales diminish.
• Environmental conditions improve dramatically.
• Socialism/communism?
Great Transitions
 Great Transitions
• New Sustainability Paradigm
• Change the industrial civilization.
• Achieving sustainability at the global level:
• Every activity most demonstrate sustainability.
• More equitable global civilization rather than to retreat into
localism.
• Consequences
• Dramatic decrease of per capita material flows:
• Through behavioral changes and technology improvements.
• High-quality environment.
• Well-distributed welfare with economic activities oriented towards
services.
Great Transitions
Conclusion
• Which Future?
• In light of the current situation around the world, which
scenario is the most likely?
• What are the alternatives?
• Population, resources and the environment
• The absolute bottom line.
• Will shape the fate of humanity in the 21st century.
• Period of strong demographic growth (demographic
transition).
• Population policy and family planning.
• Migration and urbanization.
• Consumption of resources (commodities and energy).
• The environmental challenge.