CCGL9042:

Evolution of Civilization Lecture 8: “Chapter 7:

Dr. Larry Baum
Dr. Jack Tsao
Energy: Release of
slaves after 1700”

Song 1 Song 2
 Quick review
• Specialisation and exchange gave benefits.
• Cooperative behaviour emerged.
• Memes allowed large-scale cooperation.
• Agriculture advanced.
• Cities developed.
• Progress outpaced population growth.
Main points of this lecture

• Past: renewable energy

• Industrial Revolution: fossil fuels
• Modern world depends on fossil
fuels
• Solar and wind small but rising
quickly
 People power Animal power

History of energy
• Early energy was renewable.
• PAWWW: Water mills Windmills
– People power
– Animal power
– Water mills: 1 ka ago there was one
watermill for every 50 people in
Southern England.
– Wind mills: the Netherlands had
around 10,000 windmills in 1850. Wood heating Fossil fuels
– Wood heating
• Fossil fuels
– Since industrial revolution
– Now make 85% of energy humans use
 “Above” - Painting by Robert Riggs

People Power:
partly slavery
In ancient times, since humans and Slavery in Egypt

animal bodies were the only

energy conversion device available,
muscle power was the key to
almost all human activities.
 Slavery ended over a long period http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/abol
ition/abolition_tools_gallery_07.shtml

• Slavery had existed since antiquity.

• 1804: Haiti banned slavery.
• 1807: UK banned slave trade.
– After 20-year moral campaign
– MPs such as William Wilberforce
– Public sugar boycott and petitions Two slaves carrying wine jars. Many UK consumers Abraham Lincoln
Roman mosaic, 2nd century BC. boycotted slave sugar (1809-1865)
• 1807: US banned import of slaves.
Number of countries where slavery is legal 
• 1829: Mexico abolished slavery.
• 1834: British Empire ended slavery.
• 1865: U.S. abolished slavery.
– Was biggest cotton grower, using slaves
– Civil war about abolition
• 1888: Brazil stopped slavery.
• 1910: China ended slavery.
https://humanprogress.org/article.php?p=1674
 Why was slavery
abolished?
• Humanitarian reasons:
enlightenment and increasing
respect for rights.
• Economic reasons: coal was
becoming available and cheaper New Mill (opened ~2 centuries ago)
than muscle power.
– Machines and factories
– Example: Murrays’ Mills
• Opened in 1797 in Manchester
• World’s largest steam-powered
cotton spinning factory
 Did slavery affect economic
growth?

• If slavery was very profitable, why didn’t

all slaveholding societies develop leading
economies?
– US ended slavery a generation before Brazil, and
became richer.
– Northern US ended slavery long before Southern
US, but became richer.
• Industrialization using fossil fuels made
slavery uneconomic.

http://triblive.com//x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/boudreaux/s_304437.html#axzz3Vwp6x7sO
 Lingering consequences
• Due to long history of slavery, deep
presuppositions are embedded in our
social imaginaries.
• Cultural and social memes may persist
even if the objective conditions that
created them no longer exist.
• Despite abolition of slavery and
movements for civil rights around the
NY Times: 25 year-old Ahmaud Arbery was chased down and murdered
world, discrimination towards by two white men while jogging. The perpetrators were only arrested
formerly-enslaved groups persists. months later after intense pressure on law enforcement.
• For example, African-Americans in the
US.
 Revolution in energy conversion

• The idea of converting heat into

motion was counter-intuitive before
the invention of the steam engine.
• Industrial revolution was an era of
obsession with the idea that machines
and engines could be used to convert
one type of energy into another.
• Industrial revolution was a “revolution
in energy conversion.”

Reference: Chapter 17: The Wheels of Industry of Harari YN,

2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind
 Increasing wealth
• Factory life bad: sweatshops of the 1800s
– Long hours
– Poor conditions
– Lived in slums
– Mary Barton by Elizabeth Gaskell
• Then why did farmers go work in factories?
– Farming had even lower pay
– and even worse conditions.
– Why less outrage over farm conditions?
• Reforms
– Industrial revolution increased wealth and the
luxury of compassion.
– Factory Acts: UK laws regulated factory conditions.
• 1802: apprentice working conditions
• 1847: Ten Hour Act
• 1891: minimum working age goes to 11
 The metal Midlands
• Birmingham grew from small town to
iron center in 1600s.
• Many inventions between 1750 and
1850
• Favorable conditions
– Free (no restrictive guilds)
– Stable
– Open to trade
– Like Silicon Valley now: Positive cycle where
critical mass of industry attracted capital
and talent, and more industry.
 Demand it and they will supply
• After 1700, trade made many Britons rich enough
to buy goods and services, including luxury items
(spices, wine, silk, books, sugar, candles, buckles).
• This increased demand for goods and services
stimulated innovation and manufacturing.
• Cotton
– Imported to England from 1600s
– Wool, linen and silk industries opposed, but
imports grew.
– Demand for cotton stimulated invention of
increasingly efficient textile machines.
– Cotton from India and China, then slave plantations Crompton’s
in US spinning mule
 King Coal
• PAWWW limited, but coal almost unlimited. • India vs. UK.
Why? – UK had machines.
• By 1880, coal gave Britain power equivalent to – India had cheap labor.
a billion laborers. – Machines lowered cost more than cheap
• labor.
Powered growing industry in England.
– By 1900, 40% of world’s cotton goods were
• China vs. UK made in or near Manchester.
– UK had coal throughout the country.
• Coal price stayed same despite big rise in
– China had coal far from textile industry.
consumption.
– Textile industry could grow in UK but not China.
 Electricity
• In 1873, Gramme sent
electricity long distances by
cable to power a motor.
• In 1880s, electricity distribution
began in some cities.
• Electric devices then
transformed life: railways,
lights, fridges, radios, factories,
etc.
 The power of fossil fuels
• Machines powered by coal: fewer workers needed
• Caused unemployment first but eventually cheaper and
more variety of goods and services
• We now use 2.5 kW/person, or the power of 150 people
(peddling a bicycle).
• Fossil fuel power:
– Replaces slaves
– Let everyone live like a king
• Problems
– Local air pollution
– Climate change
 Finite fossil fuels finishing?
• 1865: Stanley Jevons predicted depletion would greatly raise
coal price. This led to “coal panic” in 1866.
• 1914: US predicted its oil reserves would last 10 years.
• 1939: US said its oil would last 13 years. 12 years later it said
the oil would last only another 13 years.
• 1977: US President Carter announced that if demand kept
rising 5%/yr, “we could use up all the proven reserves in the
entire world by the end of the next decade.”
• 1970-90: World oil reserves increased from 550 to 900 billion
barrels, though 600 billion barrels used.
• 2018: World oil reserves ~1.7 trillion barrels. Use is ~36 billion
barrels/yr.
• ~150 years after coal panic, proven coal reserves will still supply
~130 years of current usage.
http://www.petrolprices.com/the-price-of-fuel.html
 Why don’t we run out?
• Fossil fuels are finite.
• But we keep finding more.
The long-term
price of oil did not
change much

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

 Energy sources
• What gives us energy?
– Fossil fuel vs. renewable sources
– Which fossil fuels?
– Which renewable sources?
• How fast is energy use rising?
• How fast is electricity use rising?
 Power vs. Energy
• Energy • Metric system
– Power used in a certain time – Bigger
– Leaving a light on for a certain time uses a certain • deka (da) = 10 = 101
amount of energy. • hecto (h) = 100 = 102
• kilo (k) = 1000 = 103
– From charge in battery or amount of water behind dam
• mega (M) = million = 106
– Units: • giga (G) = billion = 109
• Joule = Watt-sec • tera (T) = trillion = 1012
• Watt-hr = 3600 Watt-sec • peta (P) = quadrillion = 1015
•
• Power
exa (E) = quintillion = 1018
– Smaller
– Rate of use of energy • deci (d) = 0.1 = 10-1
– Keeping a light on uses a constant amount of power. • centi (c) = 0.01 = 10-2
• milli (m) = thousandth = 10-3
– From current from a battery or rate of water flowing • micro () = millionth = 10-6
through a turbine • nano (n) = billionth = 10-9
– Unit: Watt = Joule/sec • pico (p) = trillionth = 10-12
• femto (f) = quadrillionth = 10-15
 Power vs. Energy
Less energy More energy
 Power vs. Energy
Less power More power
 Power vs. Energy Quiz

https://play.kahoot.it/v2/?
quizId=709db7a4-2dcf-46e
7-86b6-3bfa99527218
 19
Primary

16
energy use

13

TW
9.5
6.3
3.2
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Shares of
primary
energy use

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Coal use

5.7
5.1
4.4
3.8
3.2

TW
2.5
1.9
1.3
0.6

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Capacity Factor
• ~1 GW is typical capacity of traditional
power plant.
• But they can’t operate all the time.
• Capacity factors
― Fossil fuels: ~half
― Wind: ~ a third
― Solar: ~ a fifth
Renewables
• Adoption of renewables energy sources such as
wind and solar have become more popular
with the rise in the meme/imaginary of the
climate change threat.
• Campaigns raising environmental awareness
and promises such as the Paris Agreement and
pledges of carbon neutrality strengthen the
imaginary and lead to action.
• These pressure governments into policy to
drive innovation and adoption of renewables.
Wind

Now ~6% of electricity

 Wind
• Turbines are getting
bigger.
• Bigger turbines cost less
per watt.
• Offshore wind farms can
capture more powerful
wind flow with less
aesthetic impact on
landscape.

https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1666828/ten-best-projects-last-decade

Old & New Turbines in Netherlands

Solar

Now ~3% of electricity

 Solar

• As solar experience accumulates, cost falls. Why?

• Same for many mass-produced items
– Fish banana game
– Wright’s law (1936), or learning by doing
• What are the general implications?
 Solar

• What are
implications for solar
in particular?
• As price falls, what
will happen to other
sources of energy?
– Fossil fuel prices?
– Fossil fuel industry?

https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/
 Electricity
Sources of electricity
• ~40% of energy
• From 2008 to 2018, grew
 3%/yr in world
 7%/yr in China (Biggest: 28% of world)
 0%/yr in US (2nd: 16% of world)
 7%/yr in India (3rd: 6% of world)
 0%/yr in Hong Kong (0.1% of world)
• ~ no growth in developed countries

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

 All power sources have problems
• Several factors affect costs. Also: • Wind
• Fossil fuels – Intermittent
– Pollute air locally – Uses much land
– Kill miners – Kills birds
– Change climate • Nuclear
– Coal worse than oil worse than gas – Creates waste
• Hydroelectricity – May contaminate land
– Displaces people • Solar
– Damages rivers – Intermittent
– Kills fish – Uses much land (1 Mm2 for world elec.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kUE0BZtTRc (3:16)
https://youtu.be/-5bVbfWuq-Q (18:47)
 Intermittent solar and wind
• What to do when sun doesn’t shine or wind doesn’t blow?
• Store energy earlier and release when needed.
– Pumped hydroelectricity: most used method now
– Batteries: rapidly rising use
– Many other methods
• Predict and juggle different sources: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo8iEL6SqgI (4:40)
 Batteries
• Cost of batteries + wind/solar is ~ cost of
fossil fuel electricity.
• But cost is falling:
– New
• Wright’s Law affects price
• -20%/yr., or (0.8)^n, or ~half in 3 years.
– Used
• Recycled batteries from electric cars will be
big, growing source.
• Cheaper
• What do you predict in a decade?
Beware policy errors
• Some rules and subsidies may raise costs
and pollution.
• Do research and consider all
consequences.
 Japanese nuclear power
• Fukushima nuclear plant had design problems.
– Design ignored strongest earthquakes
– Seawall too low
– Backup generators too low (10-13 m above sea level)
• 2011 tsunami hit reactor, which leaked radiation.
• Instead of fixing the problem at other reactors,
public panicked, and Japan shut all nuclear plants.
• Cost
– ~30% of Japan’s electricity shut off
– ~US$30 billion/yr for gas & oil to replace nuclear power
– ~1000 deaths from costly electricity in cold weather
–WorldRaised
BP Statistical Review of Energy 2017 global carbon dioxide emission by ~0.3%
https://news.usc.edu/86362/fukushima-disaster-was-preventable-new-study-finds/
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/525421/the-numbers-behind-japans-renewed-embrace-of-nuclear/
https://www.humanprogress.org/how-many-lives-are-lost-due-to-the-precautionary-principle/
 Biofuels
• Biofuels: liquid fuel from plants
– Sugar cane (Brazil) and maize (US) for ethanol
– Canola (Europe) for biodiesel
• Rationale: reduce carbon dioxide emission
• Support: some governments subsidize and
require biofuels
• Area: crops in ~800 km (almost 1 megameter)
square make 0.6% of energy (2014)
• But studies show energy to grow biofuels
roughly equals energy from them.
– Fertilizer
– Processing
– Transport

https://hungermath.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/how-much-farmland-is-used-for-biofuel/
 Diesel
• Europe cut tax on diesel cars since more
fuel efficient, to
– save money
– cut carbon dioxide
• Success: half the cars in Europe are diesel.
• But then Dieselgate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyNpn1Z21eE (0-3:00,
5:58-7:54)
• Most diesel car companies used loopholes
in rules to allow pollution.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Volkswagen_Passat_sedan_diesel_1968cc_Sep_2011.JPG
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VW_Phaeton_3.0_V6_TDI_4MOTION_(2._Facelift)_%E2%80%93_Heckansicht,_1._April_2012,_Essen.jpg
 Diesel
• Reaction: cities plan to ban diesels by 2025.
– Paris
– Madrid
– Athens
– Copenhagen
• Going further: may ban sales of all internal
combustion engine (ICE) cars
– Norway by 2025
– India by 2030
– Netherlands by 2030
– California by 2035
– France by 2040
– UK by 2040
• When will the ICE age end?

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Volkswagen_Passat_sedan_diesel_1968cc_Sep_2011.JPG
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VW_Phaeton_3.0_V6_TDI_4MOTION_(2._Facelift)_%E2%80%93_Heckansicht,_1._April_2012,_Essen.jpg
 1888 Flocken Elektrowagen

Electric cars
• Invented in 1880s.
• Popular until mass production of
ICE vehicles.
• ICE cars were cheaper to buy and
quicker to refuel.
• But electric cars now getting
popular again due to advances in
batteries and environmental
concerns.
 HK’s electric vehicle subsidy

• HK waived first registration tax on EVs

to reduce air pollution.
• This was HK$0.3-1 million/Tesla.
• HK became Tesla’s best market.
• But most of HK’s roadside pollution
comes from diesel trucks and buses.
• HK limited the EV tax break to
~HK$100k from April 2017.
• From March to April 2017, Tesla sales
fell from ~3000 to ______?

http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/air_maincontent.html
 HK’s electric vehicle subsidy

• HK waived first registration tax on EVs

to reduce air pollution.
• This was HK$0.3-1 million/Tesla.
• HK became Tesla’s best market.
• But most of HK’s roadside pollution
comes from diesel trucks and buses.
• HK limited the EV tax break to
~HK$100k from April 2017.
• From March to April 2017, Tesla sales
fell from ~3000 to ______?

http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/air_maincontent.html
 Summary
• Previously, renewable PAWWW power
• Fossil fuels powered the Industrial Revolution,
greatly increasing standard of living.
• We’re coming full circle: previously using
renewable power, now mostly non-renewable,
and in the future returning to renewables.
• Renewable power sources may reduce
pollution.
 Homework
• To prepare for the next lecture, watch a
video of the conclusion of the TV series,
Connections: An Alternative View of
Change, by James Burke:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2hdg
0b
(49:11).
• Made in 1978, I liked it as a kid and now,
~40 years later, can show it.
• If you like, you may watch other episodes
of the series, or his later series, by
searching the web.