Ecology, Sustainable Development,

and Natural Resources

For Urban and Regional Planners

Introduction to the Course

Part One: Principles of Sustainable Development
Issues that affect us

What is sustainable development and why

care?
 What Comes to Mind When We Speak of
the Environment?

 What do you like best about Addis

Ababa? What are its best natural
features?
 What issues do you observe in Addis
Ababa? In Ethiopia?
 What natural resources in Ethiopia
are somewhat at risk?
 What environmental issues do you
know about from reading? From
personal experience?
 Why Care?
Why speak of environmental systems? Why would
an urban planner care about them?
 Human Health – short and long-term
impacts
 Long-term economic survival

 Survival of species including our own

“Any species which destroys its

environment commits suicide” (A.N.
Whitehead)
 Preservation of beauty and richness of our
planet

Is it a luxury in Ethiopia where so many

economic needs are pressing?
 The Environmental Policy of
Ethiopia
 Approved April 1997
 Policy goal is
“to improve and enhance the health and
quality of life of all Ethiopians, and to
promote sustainable social and economic
development through the sound
management and use of natural, human-
made and cultural resources and the
environment as a whole, so as to meet the
needs of the present generation without
compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs”
 Our Different Environments
• We inhabit a built
environment, a Built Natural
natural
environment, and
a socio- cultural
environment. Socio-Cultural

• How do these
interact? What
are issues at the
intersection of
these
environments?

• If we live by a river,
how does this affect
the built
environment?
• If we live on hills?
 If we build on or around it,
how is the river affected?

If we use it for fishing or trade, how

is it affected?

If we use it for waste disposal, how

is it affected?
 What does “Ecology” Mean
 “The scientific study of relationships between
organisms and their environment. It is concerned
with the life histories, distribution, and behavior of
individual species as well as the structure and
function of natural systems at the level of
populations, communities, and ecosystems”
 Ecosystem = “a specific biological community and
its physical environment interacting in an
exchange of matter and energy”
 Humans live in an ecosystem that extends
throughout the planet (really the universe).
 However, we share the planet with many other
species and their ecosystems, and our activities
have profound impacts on all other systems
 What is Sustainable Development?
Sustainable Development means “meeting the
needs of the present without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet their own
needs”
Gro Harlem Brundtland, WHO Dir
 In other words, a search for human progress in
balance with the natural world, that can last over
the long term
 Seeking to create built environments that are in
harmony with, and do not overstrain the
renewable capacities of the natural world
 Biggest Challenge
How can we live (and multiply!) on our planet
without harming or even destroying the natural
systems on which we depend? What will be our
legacy to the next generation?
 For many environmental issues and problems,
there is a good understanding of the science, and
a good set of remedies
 Problem is not so much finding remedies, but
making them socially, economically, and
politically acceptable
 Increasing “environmental and ecological literacy”
 Creative solutions still needed to make good
environmental practice economically feasible
 Thinking Critically about Science
 Good environmental science (as any
science) flows from a community of
scientists, not just one “expert”
 Competing voices of scientists,
politicians, interest groups
 Planners need to be able to listen
and judge thoughtfully
 Good Environmental Science
 “Best available science” is a difficult concept. Why
might it cause problems?
• Consensus of most reputable scientists in a field
• “Available” means currently known and agreed upon
• Problems:
 Consensus not yet achieved by scientific community

 New discoveries change the consensus

 Science is self-correcting, but

 Difficult for policy-makers and public to keep up or

agree
• Scientific knowledge is nearly always provisional, subject
to change, but action / decision needed now
• However, high precision of knowledge is not always
necessary
• Just need “good enough” to make reasonable decisions
• Examples?
 Ways of Thinking
1. Analytical – Breakdown of issue into parts
• E.g. What are major types of pollution in Addis Ababa?
• What are the sources of each?
• What are the risks?
2. Creative
• How many different ways can we look at air quality?
• How many different solutions can we think of?
3. Logical (If…., then…)
• If major pollutant is particulate matter in air, and if greatest
health risk is particulate matter, and if the main source is auto /
diesel emissions,
then….reduce auto emissions to improve health
4. Critical / Strategic (goal or value-oriented)
• Goal: to restore agriculture, stop deforestation and soil erosion
• Goal: to slow climate change, reduce greenhouse gas
emissions (GHG’s)
5. Reflective
• Why should we care about air pollution (or deforestation)?
• Which should we care about more?
 Environmental Paradigms
 Old paradigm: Human is “king of the world”.
• Exploits natural world for his / her benefit without regard
to “cost” to natural systems
• Doesn’t think about next generation or those
“downstream”
• “Go forth and multiply and SUBDUE the earth”?
• Or be stewards of the good things of creation?

 Transitional paradigm: Utilitarian Conservation

• Humans are in charge, but need to balance long-term
economic costs of destroying environment vs. economic
costs of preservation
e.g. forestry, agriculture
 Environmental Paradigms (2)
 Newer paradigm: Sustainability
• Recognizes delicate balance of all natural
environmental systems and the effects of human
intervention
• Recognizes values of natural world in itself not
just for human use – aesthetic and organic value
(whole > sum of parts)
• Recognizes that loss of species or resources may
irreversibly change course of human history –
loss of resources for human benefit
• Principle = “use / replace” so that next
generation may have equal benefits from natural
world
 Statistics and Levels of Accuracy
 Is population of Addis Ababa 3,211,845 or
is it 3,855,924?
 Population = about 3.5 million – probably
good enough for most planning
 Will global temperatures rise 2 degrees in
50 years, or 6 degrees?
 Good data is important, but often have to
make decisions with imperfect but “OK”
information
 Always important to THINK about what
numbers mean….How do different
numbers fit together? Do they make
sense?
 Scientific Methods, Experiments
and Models
 Natural Experiments use real world data
• E.g. historical climate data shows correlation of
rise in mean global temperature of earth with
industrial era, and with historical estimates of
CO2 emissions
• Also, holes in ozone layer appeared over
developed areas with high levels of emissions,
while no holes were appearing over
undeveloped areas with low human-generated
emissions
 One way to anticipate the future is to look
at the immediate past, but this may not
always be sufficient - Why not?
 Modeling:
A Way to Study Alternative Futures
 Model’s accuracy depends on
accuracy of base data and
assumptions
 Assumptions can be changed,
predicting how outcome will change
based on different assumptions
 A kind of “intellectual experiment” or
“heuristic”
 Modeling Impact of Alternative
Environmental Policies
Let’s imagine that
 In a given region, 1,000 gigatons (Gt) of CO are
2
emitted by human activity (excess over natural cycle)
each year.
 It is estimated that this level of emissions is causing x
impact on air quality and y impact on long-term climate

Changing the variables in the model:

 If emissions are reduced by 20% over 10 years, how
many Gt will still be emitted, and what will the impacts
be?
 If carbon “sinks” (e.g. forested land) in the region are
doubled in size over 10 years, and emissions are
reduced by 20%, what will the impacts be?
 If emissions are reduced by 30%, and carbon sinks
increased by 50%?
 If they are reduced by 20% in five years? In 30 years?
 Modeling Population Growth
Data needed:
• Current population
• Birth rate – death rate = natural increase
• In-migration (est. by school enrollment, or by net new jobs
created, or …?)
Assuming that the estimates of the above are accurate, then
what is the formula to forecast pop growth over next 10 years?
• If current pop (Pt) = 100,000, crude annual birth rate (b)
is .042, death rate (d) is .018, and rate of natural increase
(r) will be .024
natural increase in lst year will be Pt(r) or
100,000 * .024 = 2400.
• Geometric increase over 10 years without any in-migration
would be
P t + n = Pt (1+r)10 New Pop = 100,000 (1.02410 )=
126,765
• Net natural increase is 26,765
 Modeling Population Growth
 If in-migration is included, based on the attraction of new jobs in
area (this assumes people only move to the city or region if they
think they can find a job or means of support):

 Assume each job attracts (or supports) 1.4 persons

 Jobs needed to support increased population = 26,765/1.4 =
19,118

 Assume 10 year job increase = 3200/year (avg.) x 10 years =

32,000

 Net in-migration based on excess new jobs = (32,000 – 19,118 =

12,882)*1.4 = 18,035

 (this doesn’t necessarily work where urban in-migration is very high

despite few jobs)

 Population in 10 years = 126,765 (natural increase) + 18,035 in-

migration = 144,800


 This represents urban growth of 44.8% over 10 years, or about

3.8% per year.
 What Changes Are Already
Underway?
 Current world population of about 6.5
billion, adding about 73 million
(1.14%) per year
 Probable leveling off of world
population to about 8 – 10 billion by
2050
 Increasing urbanization – already
about 50% of world’s population live
in cities
What Will Some of the Other
Impacts or Issues Be?
 Major Issues
Insuring adequate water supply and access
 1.2 billion currently lack access to safe drinking
water. About 2.5 billion lack adequate sanitation
 40% of people live in countries where water
demands now exceed supply
 Could rise to 75% by 2025

Producing adequate food without

environmental degradation
 Issues of water supply
 Restoring and maintaining soil stability and quality
 Avoiding further deforestation and desertification
 Dealing with uncertainties of climate change
 Major Issues (2)
Global warming and climate change
 CO2 emissions have increase about 30% in last 200
years
 Main sources: burning fossil fuels (cars, trucks, ships,
coal-burning plants), making cement, clearing forests
 Pop. pressures mean acceleration of emissions despite
efforts to control them; could double by end of 21st
century
 General scientific consensus that human-caused
climate change is underway:
• Avg. global temperature rose 1 degree F (0.5 degree C) in
20th century, mostly in last 30 years.
• 11 warmest years on record (since 1860’s) have occurred
since 1994 (1998 and 2005 were the hottest on record)
• Avg. global temperatures predicted to rise from 1.5 – 6
degrees C. or 2.7 – 11 degrees F. by 2nd half of this century
• Melting of ice caps and ice shelfs could raise sea levels
anywhere from a meter or two to up to 6 or 7 meters in 50
years, wiping out huge stretches of coastland.
 Major Issues (3)
Energy supply
 Depletion of fossil fuels

 Need to increase use of renewable sources:

solar, hydro, wind, geothermal, biomass

 Materials manufacture: energy efficiency,

re-use
• E.g. cement mfg. uses high energy cost,
releasing high levels of CO2 and high levels of
alkaline dust, and dangerous levels of alkalinity
in run-off water
Equity in Use of World’s Resources
• 5% of world’s population consumes about 25%
of commodities, and produces 25 – 50% of
industrial wastes
 What
strikes
you in
this
chart?
 What
questions
does it
raise?
 Are there
any con-
clusions
you
would
draw?
 Major Issues (4)
Health effects of air, water and soil pollution
 Industrial, auto, diesel, and wood-burning emissions
release particulate matter, other chemicals and
toxins in air, causing asthma, respiratory illness,
and cancers
 Most of these effects are “invisible” or so long-term
that most people don’t see the cause and effect
 Water pollution:
• Untreated human and animal waste contribute to
cholera, typhoid, diarrhea, high child mortality
• Fertilizers, oil and other chemical runoff cause
toxicity to humans and animals
• Heating of surface water through industrial
discharge or climate change destroys species
habitat
 So….
 As world and local population grows
 As we need more food and water and power….
 As we become more urbanized and industrialized
 As we consume more goods and drive more
vehicles….
 How can we find ways to live in greater harmony
with our natural environment?
 How can we preserve our own ecosystem, and
those of other species?
 How can we leave the planet in better shape for
our children and grandchildren?
 Coming Attractions
 Population, Human Settlements, and
the Limits of Nature
 Read Cunningham, Ch. 1 and Ch. 4
 What do you think are the most serious
environmental issues in Ethiopia?
 Deforestation (lack of care for
preservation of trees)
 Soil erosion
 Desertification
 Drought
 Flooding
 Noise Pollution
 Unbalanced population growth
relative to natural resources
 Imbalance between population
growth and capacity for
economic production
 Environmental pollution (esp.
air)
 Air pollution from cars, esp.
private cars, and associated
health risks
 Pollution of rivers from throwing
garbage in, from untreated
sewage, and from industries
 Wastewater treatment, basic
sanitation, and clean drinking water
 Unplanned development without
serious concern for basic
environmental issues
 Planning doesn’t always account for
all types of activities – social,
economic and physical
 Low knowledge of environmental
issues on the part of the
community, because of less
education
 Traffic safety for autos and
pedestrians
 Wildlife migration
 Climate conditions/change
 What would you most like to learn
about?
 Urban pollution and  How do we as planners
remedies
bring about sustainable
 Sustainable development development in our
 Causes and solutions to country?
tackle the problems, esp.
here in Ethiopia
 How to think logically and
analytically about these
 The effects of
urbanization on the problems
environment  How to apply our
 Environmental issues knowledge systematically
both inside Ethiopia and to improve people’s living
in other countries conditions, preserve our
 How to improve the water, air and other
economy, health, and resource, and manage
living conditions in these resources well
Ethiopia