Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Integrated Urban Development with the BRT Plan
in Santa Cruz Metropolitan Area Management, Bolivia
CUBE training
Session 1 (2020/12/04)
1
Curriculum
Se Date
1 Role of Traffic Demand Forecasting in Transport Planning
Outline of the Four Step Method
Step 1. Trip Generation & Attraction
Update of Socio-economic Framework
Development of Initial OD network
2 Q & A from Session 1
Step 2. Trip Distribution (General / On Cube User Interface)
Step 3. Modal Split (General / On Cube User Interface)
Update of Transport Network
3 Q & A from Session 2
Step 4. Highway Traffic Assignment (General / On Cube User Interface)
Step 4. Transit Traffic Assignment (General / On Cube User Interface)
Calibrating OD table from Traffic Survey Results
4 Q & A from Session 3
How to Update Traffic Demand Model Parameter
Stated Preference Survey
Consideration of Impact of COVID-19
2
Topic 1-1:
Role of Traffic Demand Forecasting
in Transport Planning
What’s Transport M/P ?
Source: Transport Improvement Master Plan Project for Santa Cruz Metropolitan Area (2016)
4
Role of
Traffic Demand Forecasting
Development Impact
Vs.
Budget Constraint
Economic / Financial Evaluation
Background
• Government has limited budget
• Many transport projects are listed:
What’re priority projects ?
How are the construction / implementation schedule prepared ?
Short / Middle / Long Term Planning
Business Base (Expressway / Railway ), Non-Business Base (Road)
Tool:
• Economic Benefit / Cost <- Project without Revenue
Saving of Transport Cost (Vehicle Operating Cost / Travel Time Cost
Social Cost of Emission, Accidents)
• Financial Benefit / Cost <- Project with Revenue
Fare / Toll Revenue, Non-Fair Revenue
¿Cómo priorizar el Proyecto?
Con proyecto Sin proyecto
Preference Approach
Man is going to be late for a date
How much can he pay for 30 min of travel
time reduction ?
= He answered USD 5… (USD 10 of TTC)
Traffic Zone
11
4-step Method (2)
• Trip Distribution
Gener
Zone ation
Attrac
tion
Método de los 4 pasos (3)
• Selección Modal (Modelo de Reparto Modal)
Source: Transport Improvement Master Plan Project for Santa Cruz Metropolitan Area (2016)
Survey conducted in Transport Improvement Master
Plan Project for Santa Cruz Metropolitan Area (2016)
Source: Transport Improvement Master Plan Project for Santa Cruz Metropolitan Area (2016)
Encuesta de viajes de hogares (HIS) /
Encuesta de viajes diarios (CS)
• Realizado en toda el área administrativa del Área Metropolitana de Santa Cruz.
• La proporción de la muestra de la HIS se fija en aproximadamente 1,8% de la
población del área urbana del Área Metropolitana de Santa Cruz.
• La proporción de la muestra de la CS se fije en aproximadamente el 2% de la
población del Área Metropolitana de Santa Cruz.
• El trabajo de campo de las encuestas se inició el 10 de junio del 2016 y se finalizó
el 31 de marzo de 2017.
Fuente: Proyecto del Plan Maestro para la Mejora del Transporte en el Área Metropolitana de Santa Cruz (2016)
17
Tasa de viajes por Atributos
Tasa de viajes por ingresos económicos Tasa de viajes por tenencia de automóvil
Fuente: Proyecto del Plan Maestro para la Mejora del Transporte en el Área Metropolitana de Santa Cruz (2016)
• El nivel de ingresos y la
Error Check
Expansion
Screen Line
Survey Adjustment
Person Trip
Master File
The following variables are used for the demand forecast model.
TAZ PHBW PHBS1 PHBS2 PHBO PNHB PNHO PHOME PTTL AHBW AHBS1 AHBS2 AHBO ANHB ANHO AHOME ATTL
1 154 55 221 367 204 6,291 20,472 27,764 990 82 17,473 1,075 204 5,012 796 25,632
22
In CUBE User-Interface
23
In CUBE User-Interface
24
Topic 1-4:
Update of
Socio-economic Framework
Existing Socio-economic
Framework
C
26
Existing Socio-economic
Framework
Code Municipio 2016 2020 2025 2035
70101 Santa Cruz de La Sierra 1,643,140 1,722,837 1,863,329 2,163,397
70102 Cotoca 58,680 92,203 124,554 193,644
70103 Porongo 25,921 43,704 65,838 113,109
70104 La Guardia 111,624 135,414 156,529 201,624
70105 El Torno 57,761 61,009 63,224 67,958
70201 Warnes 144,632 193,431 239,238 337,072
Total 2,041,758 2,248,598 2,512,712 3,076,804
Source: Transport Improvement Master Plan Project for Santa Cruz Metropolitan Area (2016)
MUNICIPIO 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Santa Cruz de La Sierra 1,523,488 1,555,540 1,585,863 1,614,224 1,640,615 1,664,663 1,686,375 1,705,706 1,722,480
SANTA CRUZ 2,783,790 2,857,499 2,931,260 3,004,951 3,078,459 3,151,676 3,224,662 3,297,483 3,370,059
Cotoca 47,923 48,923 49,883 50,814 51,706 52,559 53,379 54,137 54,851
A. IBAÑEZ Santa Cruz de La Sierra 1,523,488 1,555,540 1,585,863 1,614,224 1,640,615 1,664,663 1,686,375 1,705,706 1,722,480
Porongo 16,249 16,399 16,524 16,657 16,764 16,857 16,930 17,004 17,047
Cotoca 47,923 48,923 49,883 50,814 51,706 52,559 53,379 54,137 54,851
La Guardia 91,352 99,399 108,169 117,684 127,986 139,103 151,081 163,945 177,735
Porongo 16,249 16,399 16,524 16,657 16,764 16,857 16,930 17,004 17,047
El Torno La Guardia
52,094 53,503
91,352
54,927
99,399
56,355
108,169 117,684
57,762 127,986 59,167139,103 60,566
151,081
61,937
163,945
63,298
177,735
Warnes El Torno 98,336 108,065
52,094 118,962
53,503 131,121
54,927 144,630
56,355 57,762159,598 59,167 176,121
60,566 194,313
61,937 214,246
63,298
Study
I. Area Total
WARNES Warnes 1,829,442 1,881,829
98,336 1,934,328
108,065 1,986,855
118,962 2,039,463 144,630
131,121 2,091,947159,5982,144,452
176,121 2,197,042
194,313 2,249,657
214,246
27
Comparison of Population Density in 2020
28
Car Ownership Ratio
Automotor Park Date REPORT
686,970 2020/5/29 RUAT - Municipal Government of Santa Cruz de la Sierra
29
Topic 1-5:
Development of Initial OD network