War on Terror

By Islam Wazir
islamudd@gmail.com
Impacts on Pakistan
Economic
Political
Social
Human cost
Social
Social Decay, Militant culture, Intolerance.
 The Taliban’s main source of income has been drug
dealing and production.
They gathered their resources from Opium cultivation.
 According to data from CSIS (Centre for Strategic and
International Studies) Opium cultivation has continued
to grow but has shifted into Taliban controlled areas.
An opium survey was conducted by UN in 2007 which
showed production of 185 Metric Ton opium in 2001
and 8200 Metric Tons in 2007. 
Economic
According to a report released by an US Department
in 2004, Pakistan had faced a loss of 10 billion dollars
by becoming an ally on war on terror.
Assuming that in 2004 we were not in as much
problems as now then after 17 years as a front line ally
we have lost 120 billion dollars minimum.
On average, every year Pakistan suffered losses of $7.7
billion more than the country’s total expenditures on
education, health and other social safety schemes.
Security:
There were more than 123 suicide attacks in Afghanistan
and 69 in Pakistan only in 2006.
In assessment report of Pakistan by Institute for Conflict
Management Database at least 3,599 persons, including
1,523 civilians, 597 security force (SF) personnel and 1,479
militants, were killed in 2007 only.
Over 81,000 Pakistanis combatants and non-combatants
have been killed since 2001.
Of these, about 52,100 are civilians. Over 40,000 civilians
have been wounded. (Watson institute)
Taliban
United Nations Role
United Nation has failed in the process of this conflict
settlement.
United Nation is considered as a part to the conflict by
many Afghans.
Pakistan’s Role
Pakistan stand accused of playing both side.
Good and Bad Taliban Policy.
Taliban cannot win but the Afghan State cannot defeat
them either.
Many Believe that Taliban have only come back
because of the support of Pakistan.
So ?
The only Good Taliban is ……
The Dead Taliban.
Pakistan’s Potential in Afghanistan
Social
Economic
Political
Conflict Profile
Two decades of war have destroyed the economy,
social capital, productive foundation of the society .
Afghanistan has the highest number of landmines (10
millions) the largest refugee and disabled population,
the highest rates of infant mortality.
Conflict Profile
Life expectancy is 44 years, compared to an average of
53 years for other low-income countries worldwide.
Estimated 10,000 people were killed in 2010 alone, the
ratio is increased by 170 percent after 2010.
July 2010 Wikileaks: 90,000 secret military files
revealing how the coalition forces had killed hundreds
of civilians in unreported incidents.
The opium trade has increased massively since 2001.

90% of heroin is produced by Afghanistan these days.

Lack of stable governance mean that new conflicts will
continue to rise up.
The government is failing to extend its control or enter
into negotiations with the Taliban.
Future of Afghanistan
Peace talks
Ethnic Politics
Regional Actors
Population (approximately million)

Ethnicities.
Pashtun 37 %
Tajiks 29 %
Hazara 25%
Uzbeks9%
Aimaq 5%
Turkmen 3%
Baloch 2%
Geostrategic Position
Conflict Settlement
Political Or Military ?.
David Milli Band and Gen. Mc Crystal farewell
statements from Afghanistan.
Has the military option failed in Afghanistan or has
been less effective? .
80/20 American formula for Afghanistan.
Reality is 3/97