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Market Potential and Sales Forecasting
Market Potential and Sales Forecasting
Forecasting
10/3, 2017
Forecasts versus Potential
Expectations Possibilities
Relative Advantage
Compatibility
Risk
Role of Analogous Products
Mature Product Potential
Judgment-Based Methods
– Naïve Extrapolation
– Sales Force Composite
– Jury of Expert Opinion
– Delphi Method
Delphi Forecasting
Questionnaire Data feed-in
(Numerical & graph)
Formulation of first
round questionnaire
Expert panel
selection Distribution and
collection of responses
Statistical analysis
Formulation of second
round questionnaire
Distribution and
collection of response
Distribution and
Statistical analysis
collection of response
Final estimation
and circulation
Forecasting Methods (II)
Customer-Based Methods
– Market Testing
Mall Intercept Surveys
Focus Groups
Product Concept Tests
– Market Surveys
The top-two-boxes scores (the number of customers who
state they will either definitely or probably buy the
product)
Purchase intentions and actual behavior
The Top-Two-Boxes Score
6. 擴展全國和國際通路
配銷缺口 7. 增加配銷密度-展店和新型態零售點
8. 增加現在通路曝光度
9. 鼓勵非使用者使用產品
使用缺口 10. 促使輕度使用者增加使用量
11. 增加每種使用情境的使用量
競爭缺 12. 滲透替代品的領域
口 13. 滲透競爭者之定位
14. 保衛現有定位
產業巿 企業 巿場結
場潛力 銷售 構剖面 成長策略 ( 增加 IMP 的大小、創造新的 IMP 、以及
(IMP) 額 (MSP) 縮近 MSP 缺口 )
缺口
Forecasting Methods (III)
Model-Based Methods
– Regression Analysis
– Leading Indicators
– Econometric Models
The A-T-A-R Model
Profit per unit = Revenue per unit (unit list price less trade margins,
promotional allowances. Freight, etc.) - Costs per unit (usually
costs of goods sold per plus direct marketing costs)
Therefore:
Profits = Buying units * Percent aware * Percent trial * Percent availability
* Percent repeat * Annual units bought * (Revenue per unit - Costs per unit)
A-T-A-R and the Market
Testing Methods
Information Needed Sources of This Information
by the A-T-A-R Profit
Forecasting Method Pseudo sale methods Controlled sale methods Full sale methods
Number of market units Market Research studies Market Research studies Yes
Likes it and wants more (R) Yes--in sales wave Team estimates Yes
Profit per unit (price-cost) Price plan plus estimates Price plan plus estimates Yes
from accounting on costs from accounting on costs