European Integration

Enlargement

Peter Bursens
Departement Politieke Wetenschappen
Universiteit Antwerpen

2021 - 2022
 Overview enlargements

Country Application Membership

Founding members
Belgium 1957
France 1957
Germany 1957
Italy 1957
Luxembourg 1957
Netherlands 1957
First enlargement
Denmark August 1961 January 1973
Ireland July 1961 January 1973
United Kingdom August 1961 January 1973
Second enlargement
Greece June 1975 January 1981
Third enlargement
Portugal March 1977 January 1986
Spain July 1977 January 1986
East Germany German reunification October 1990
Fourth enlargement
Austria July 1989 January 1995
Finland March 1992 January 1995
Sweden July 1991 January 1995

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 Overview enlargements

Fifth enlargement
Cyprus July 1990 1 May 2004
Czech Republic January 1996 1 May 2004
Estonia December 1995 1 May 2004
Hungary March 1994 1 May 2004
Latvia October 1995 1 May 2004
Lithuania December 1995 1 May 2004
Malta July 1990 1 May 2004
Poland April 1994 1 May 2004
Slovakia June 1995 1 May 2004
Slovenia June 1996 1 May 2004
Sixth enlargement
Bulgaria December 1995 1 January 2007
Romania June 1995 1 January 2007
Seventh enlargement
Croatia February 2003 1 July 2013

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 The Fifth / Sixth Enlargement Process

•Enlargement with Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC’s):

A major quantitative and qualitative challenge

•1989: Fall of the Berlin Wall

•1989 – 1993: Preparing for enlargement: Phare, ‘Europe-agreements’

•1993: Copenhagen criteria:

stability, democracy, the rule of law, human rights, protection of
minorities
functioning market economy, capacity to cope with market competitive
pressures
adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union
•1995: Extra Madrid criterion:
full compliance with the ‘acquis communautaire’

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 Enlargement: the Acquis Communautaire

• The negotiations on the incorporation of the Acquis Communautaire in the

candidate countries are divided in 30 (now 33) chapters.
• Each of these chapters must be closed before accession can take place. In
principal, a chapter can only be closed when full guarantee is given that the
acquis is implemented before accession.
• However, in reality transitional periods are necessary to grant candidate
countries more time to comply with the acquis during the first years of their
membership, especially for difficult chapters such as agriculture,
environment and free movement
The European Commission has set conditions for these transitional periods:
limited in time and scope and accompanied by a clear plan to end
Transitional periods can function in two directions:
free movement of labour towards ‘old’ member states
purchase of real estate in the candidate countries

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 The Fifth / Sixth Enlargement Process

•1997: Luxembourg European Council:

start enlargement negotiations (1998) with Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus
Turkey accepted as candidate member state but no negotiations yet
•1999: Helsinki European Council:
start enlargement negotiations (2000) with Slovakia, Malta, Lithuania,
Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria
•2000: Nice European Council:
Enlargement becomes legally possible after compromise on formal
aspects of institutional reform (Treaty of Nice)

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 The Fifth / Sixth Enlargement Process

• Formally, the Nice European Council (December 2000) cleared the way for
accession of those candidate countries that meet the criteria
• Both the European Commission (Progress Report, November 2001) and the
European Council (Laeken, December 2001) stated that negotiations could
be concluded by the end of 2002, with those candidate countries that
meet the criteria
• The European Council of Copenhagen (December 2002) concluded
accession negotiations with all candidate countries except Romania and
Bulgaria.
Still no start of negotiations with Turkey

• The European Council of Copenhagen (December 2002) decided to open

accession negotiations with Turkey at the earliest in 2005, depending on
Commission reports in 2004

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 Enlargement: Roadmap of the ‘Copenhagen 10’

• April 9, 2003: European Parliament approval of the Accession

Treaties
• April 10, 2003: Council of Ministers approval of the Accession
Treaties
• April 16, 2003: European Council of Athens: solemn signing of
the Accession Treaties
• 2003-2004: ratification in all current and candidate Member
States
• May 1, 2004: full membership: EU enlarged to 25 Members
• June, 2004: European Elections in 25 Member States

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 Bulgaria

Bulgaria concluded negotiations in June 2004

‘Safeguard clause’: accession can be postponed if the EU thinks that
reforms are not implemented (fast) enough
Issues: organised crime and corruption, judicial and administrative
reforms, nuclear plants
Approval of the accession treaty in April 2005 by Bulgaria, the European
Parliament and the 25 member states
Critical rapport by the European Commission in October 2005
Last European Commission report of May 2006 was positive

Full membership on January 1, 2007

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 Romania

Romania concluded negotiations in June 2004

‘Safeguard clause’: accession can be postponed if the EU thinks that
reforms are not implemented (fast) enough
Issues: organised crime and corruption, judicial and administrative
reforms, discrimination of the Roma community, press freedom
Approval of the accession treaty in April 2005 by Romania, the European
Parliament and the 25 member states
Critical rapport by the European Commission in October 2005
Last European Commission report of May 2006 was positive

Full membership on January 1, 2007

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 Seventh Enlargement: Croatia

Application in February 2003

Recognized as applicant member state in June 2004
Issues: discrimination of Serb minority, cooperation with the International
Criminal Court on Yugoslavia, judicial reform, corruption
Negotiations started on 3 October 2005 after a positive report by Carla Del Ponte
of the International Criminal Court on Yugoslavia
European Commission report (November 2006): progress in reform but still
worrying issues (single market, justice, corruption, … and the cooperation with
the International Tribunal for Yugoslavia)
June 2011: all chapters closed
December 2011: accession treaty signed
January 2012: Croatian referendum approves accession (66% in favor)

All EU member states and EP also approved: accession on 1 July 2013

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 Current applicants: Turkey

European Conference (London, 1998)

European Council Helsinki (1999): Turkey becomes ‘candidate –
candidate – member state’: recognition as candidate – member state,
but no negotiations yet

(Constitutional) reforms in Turkey (2002-2004)

European Council Brussels 2002: the European Council of December 2004
shall decide, based on a report of the European Commission, whether
Turkey meets the Copenhagen criteria. If so, negotiations can start
‘immediately’.

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 Turkey

recommendation of the European Commission (October 2004):

sufficient reforms to start negotiations
suspension of negotiations is always possible
negotiations are a process with an ‘open ending’

European Council Brussels (December 2004): negotiations can start in

October 2005
Turkey accepts negotiation frame, making a symbolic start of the
negotiations possible on 3 October 2005

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 Turkey
start technical negotiations (33 chapters) in spring 2006
yearly progress reports of the European Commission
explicit ‘open ending’

Since 2006, negotiations have been partially suspended (8 chapters will

not be opened and none will be closed) because of unresolved dispute
between Turkey and Cyprus
February 2022: 1/33 chapters closed, 16 other chapters under negotiation
Forecast:
Very hard negotiations, accession in the short term highly unlikely, due to
developments in Turkey (freedom of speech, AKP/Erdogan policies,
reversed secularisation, Kurdish minority, Syrian conflict, migration …)
But also: Turkey demands progress in talks in return for helping the EU to
stop refugees from entering the EU.
2022 negotiations de facto stalled

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 Turkey

issues: demographic evolution

economic issues: single market, labour migration, agriculture,
regional policies
cultural en religious identity of the EU
respect for human rights and minorities (Kurds)
Cyprus
judicial and administrative reforms
geopolitical issue, terrorism, Syria
public opinion
ratification of the accession treaty
respect for basic freedoms

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 Iceland

Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA – 1994) and of

the Schengen-zone (2001)
16 July 2009: Iceland applies for EU membership

Application motivated by the bad economic situation caused by the

financial crisis; Iceland considers that EU and above all EMU membership
can prevent future crises.
Accession negotiations running since July 2010
Issues: fisheries, agriculture, rural development, environment, free
movement of capital and financial services
Until 2013: 11 chapters closed, 16 more opened
In 2014 negotiations have been suspended: the new Icelandic
government does not pursue EU membership
In March 2015 Iceland withdrew its application: ‘Iceland should not
be regarded as a candidate country for EU membership".

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 Western Balkan

North Macedonia:
Stabilisation and Association Agreement since 2004
application in 2004, candidate member state since 2005
European Council has decided to open negotiations in 2020, but no start
yet

Montenegro:
Stabilisation and Association Agreement signed in 2007; application for
EU membership in 2008
Accepted as candidate member state since December 2010
Negotiations started in June 2012, 3 chapters closed, 30 chapters opened

Bosnia and Herzegovina:

Stabilisation and Association into force in 2015
Formal application in February 2016, no opening of negotiations yet

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 Western Balkan

Serbia:
Stabilisation and Association Agreement signed in 2008: however, ratification by EU
member states has been suspended after non-cooperation with the International
Criminal Court and Serbia’s position on Kosovo;
Accepted as candidate member state in March 2012, negotiations have started in
January 2014, 2 chapters closed, 16 chapters opened.

Albania:
Stabilisation and Association Agreement since 2009; application for EU membership
in 2009, Candidate status in 2014
European Council has decided to open negotiations in 2020, but no start yet

Kosovo (‘under UNSCR 1244’):

The EU has recognized ‘the European perspective’ of Kosovo. The EU provides
assistance in the fields of economic development and security.
Stabilisation and Association Agreement in effect in 2016

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 Non - enlargements

Country Application Situation

Norway April 1962 Accession rejected by referendum in September 1972

Morocco July 1987 Rejected by the Council as a non-European state
Membership in the European Economic Area rejected by referendum
in December 1992.
Switzerland June 1992
Application for membership subsequently withdrawn.
Norway December 1992 Accession again rejected by referendum in November 1994.

Norway 2014 poll: 70% against EU membership

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 Enlargement: who’s next and what are the stakes?

Norway, Switzerland, Iceland (again)?

Moldova, (Belarus), Ukraine?
Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia, …?

the inevitable discussion on ‘the frontiers of Europe’:

geographically? politically? economically? culturally? religiously?

European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP): close ties but no

membership?

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 European Neighbourhood Policy

European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP):

close ties but no membership?
framework to foster economic growth, democratic governance
and stability in EU’s neighbour regions:

Eastern partnership: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Southern Neighbourhood: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan,

Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria and Tunisia

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European Neighbourhood Policy
 How can the EU Shrink (1)?

Suspension of membership (article 7 of TEU):

a member state cannot be forced to leave the EU

its membership rights can be suspended when all other member

states judge that basic values of the EU are violated

unanimous decision of the European Council required

2000: almost invoked against Austria (FPÖ in government)

since 2020: calls for activating article 7 against Poland and

Hungary

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 How can the EU Shrink (2)?

Secession of a part of a member state

declaration of independence by a region of a member state

discussion about the status of such an independent region: can a region

inherit EU membership?

does a region have to reapply for membership?

and if so, what will be the procedure?

Scotland (referendum in 2014), Catalonia (referendum in 2017)

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 How can the EU Shrink (3)?

Voluntary withdrawal of a member state:

Exit clause in the Treaty of Lisbon

no unilateral right to withdraw, but a negotiated withdrawal

extremely complicated and burdensome process

Brexit!

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 Brexit arguments

‘leave’ arguments

to protect borders to fight immigration

to foster trade, competitiveness and growth

to abolish the financial contribution to the EU

to restore sovereignty
to oppose the political elites

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 Brexit arguments

‘remain’ arguments

to safeguard free movement and open borders

to foster trade, competitiveness and growth

to safeguard security cooperation

to prevent insecurity

to avoid costs

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 Brexit Timeline

For details: see ukandeu and European Council

June 2016: Brexit referendum

2016-2017-2018: negotiations

October 2019: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on Future Relationship

January 2020: UK leaves the EU

2020: transition period

December 2021: EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

2021 onwards: further negotiations

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Future EU – UK
Relations?
(United) Kingdom

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 Institutional consequences for the EU

institutional reform:

number of MEPs; composition of the European Commission; British

EU officials; relocation of EU agencies

budget:

how to cope with the losses and gains of the UK contribution?

politics:

how will the changed composition play out in terms of political power in
the European Parliament and the (European) Council?

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 The European Institutional Labyrinth

Even more complicated after Brexit…