TPS6 LecturePowerPoint 11.1 DT 043018

Chapter 11
Inference for Distributions of

Categorical Data
Section 11.1
Chi-Square Tests for
Goodness of Fit
Chi-Square Tests for Goodness of Fit
LEARNING TARGETS
By the end of this section, you should be able to:
 STATE appropriate hypotheses and COMPUTE the expected
counts and chi-square test statistic for a chi-square test for
goodness of fit.
 STATE and CHECK the Random, 10%, and Large Counts conditions
for performing a chi-square test for goodness of fit.
 CALCULATE the degrees of freedom and P-value for a chi-square
test for goodness of fit.
 PERFORM a chi-square test for goodness of fit.
 CONDUCT a follow-up analysis when the results of a chi-square
test are statistically significant.
Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Here’s what the Consumer Affairs Department of

Mars, Inc. says about the distribution of color for
M&M’S® Milk Chocolate Candies produced at its
Hackettstown, New Jersey, factory:
Ramón Rivera Moret

Here’s what the Consumer Affairs Department of

Mars, Inc. says about the distribution of color for
M&M’S® Milk Chocolate Candies produced at its
Hackettstown, New Jersey, factory:
Brown: 12.5%
Red: 12.5%
Yellow: 12.5%
Green: 12.5%
Orange: 25%
Blue: 25%
Ramón Rivera Moret

Stating Hypotheses
Jerome’s class wondered if the

distribution of color in a large bag of
M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies differed
from the claimed distribution.
Ramón Rivera Moret

Stating Hypotheses
Jerome’s class wondered if the

distribution of color in a large bag of
M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies differed
from the claimed distribution.
Ramón Rivera Moret

Here are data from a random sample
of 60 candies from that bag:

Stating Hypotheses
H0: The distribution of color in the large bag
of M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies is the
same as the claimed distribution.
Ramón Rivera Moret

Stating Hypotheses
Ha: The distribution of color in the large bag of
Ramón Rivera Moret

M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies is not the same
as the claimed distribution.

Stating Hypotheses
Ramón Rivera Moret

We can also write the hypotheses in symbols.

Stating Hypotheses
Ramón Rivera Moret

We can also write the hypotheses in symbols.
H0: pbrown = 0.125, pred = 0.125, pyellow = 0.125, pgreen = 0.125, porange = 0.25, pblue =
0.25
Ha: At least two of the pi’s are incorrect
where pcolor = the true proportion of M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies in the
large bag of that color
Stating Hypotheses
all
Ramón Rivera Moret

M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies is not the same h at
g e sts t
as the claimed distribution. t sug
ay tha
ro n g.
i n a w n are w
IO N : t he si s
i bu tio
We can alsoCA UT the hypotheses
write v e
o
hyp inzesymbols.
d dist r
e rn ati t h e si
e al t hyp o
t h h e
H0: pbrown
’ t=s ate npsredi=
t0.125, n t0.125, pyellow = 0.125, pgreen = 0.125, porange = 0.25, pblue =
D o n r tio
0.25 p ro po
the
Ha: At least two of the pi’s are incorrect
where pcolor = the true proportion of M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies in the
large bag of that color
Comparing Observed and Expected Counts:
The Chi-Square Test Statistic
How many candies of each color should Jerome’s class expect to find in
their sample of 60 candies?

Brown: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Red: (60)(0.125) = 7.5
Yellow: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Brown: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Green: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Red: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Orange: (60)(0.25) = 15
Yellow: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Blue: (60)(0.25) = 15

Brown: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Green: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Red: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Orange: (60)(0.25) = 15
Yellow: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Blue: (60)(0.25) = 15
Calculating Expected Counts in a

Chi-Square Test for Goodness of Fit
The expected count for category i in the distribution of a categorical variable is
npi
where pi is the relative frequency for category i specified by the null hypothesis.


How likely is it that differences this large or larger would occur just by
chance in random samples of size 60 from the population distribution
claimed by Mars, Inc.?

How likely is it that differences this large or larger would occur just by
chance in random samples of size 60 from the population distribution
claimed by Mars, Inc.?
The statistic we use to make the comparison is the
chi-square test statistic 2.

The chi-square test statistic is a measure of how far the observed counts
are from the expected counts. The formula for the statistic is
where the sum is over all possible values of the categorical variable.

For Jerome’s data, we add six terms—one for each color category:
2 (12 −7.5)2 (3 −7.5)2 (7 − 7.5)2 (9 −7.5)2 ( 9− 15)2 (20 −15)2

𝜒 = + + + + +
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 15 15

For Jerome’s data, we add six terms—one for each color category:
2 (12 −7.5)2 (3 −7.5)2 (7 − 7.5)2 (9 −7.5)2 ( 9− 15)2 (20 −15)2

𝜒 = + + + + +
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 15 15

Problem: Carrie made a 6-sided die in her ceramics class and rolled it 90
times to test if each side was equally likely to show up. The table
summarizes the outcomes of her 90 rolls.
(a) State the hypotheses that Carrie should test.

(b) Calculate the expected count for each of the possible outcomes.
(c) Calculate the value of the chi-square test statistic.


(a)
H0: The sides of Carrie’s die are equally likely to show up.
Ha: The sides of Carrie’s die are not equally likely to show up.


(b) If H0 is true, each of the 6 sides should show up 1/6 of the time. The
expected count is 90(1/6) = 15 for each side.


(c)
2 (12 −15)2 (28 −15)2 (12 −15)2 (13 − 15)2 (10 −15)2 (15 − 15)2
𝜒 = + + + + +
15 15 15 15 15 15

The Chi-Square Distributions and P-
Values
We used software to simulate taking 1000 random samples of size 60 from
the population distribution of M&M’S Milk Chocolate Candies given by
Mars, Inc. Here are the values of the chi-square test statistic for these
1000 samples.

Values
1000 samples.

Values
1000 samples.
Larger values of 2 give more

convincing evidence against
H0 and in favor of Ha.

Values
1000 samples.
Larger values of 2 give more

convincing evidence against
H0 and in favor of Ha.
Our estimated P-value is

87/1000 = 0.087

Values
A chi-square distribution is defined by a density curve that takes only
nonnegative values and is skewed to the right. A particular chi-square
distribution is specified by its degrees of freedom.

Values

Values
• As the degrees of freedom

(df) increase, the density
curves become less skewed.
• The mean of a particular chi-
square distribution is equal
to its degrees of freedom.
• For df > 2, the mode (peak)
of the chi-square density
curve is at df – 2.

Values
There are 6 color categories for M&M’s® Milk Chocolate Candies,
so df = 6 – 1 = 5.

Values
so df = 6 – 1 = 5.
The P-value is the probability of getting a 2 value of as large as or larger
than 9.8 when H0 is true.

Values
so df = 6 – 1 = 5.

Values
so df = 6 – 1 = 5.
The P-value for a test based on Jerome’s data is between 0.05 and 0.10.

Values
so df = 6 – 1 = 5.

Values
so df = 6 – 1 = 5.
t r u e!
s is is
oth e
hy p
e null
N : t hat th
U T IO m ean
CA o es not
H d
c t
reje
0
n g to
Fa i li

Values
summarizes the observed and expected counts. In the preceding example,
we calculated 2 = 14.41. Find the P-value using Table C. Then calculate a
more precise value using technology.

Values
summarizes the observed and expected counts. In the preceding example,
we calculated 2 = 14.41. Find the P-value using Table C. Then calculate a
more precise value using technology.
df = 6 – 1 = 5
Using Table C:
the P-value is between 0.01 and 0.02
Using technology:
2 cdf(lower:14.41, upper:10000, df:5)
= 0.0132

Carrying Out a Test
Conditions for Performing a Chi-Square Test
for Goodness of Fit
• Random: The data come from a random sample from the population of
interest.
◦ 10%: When sampling without replacement, n < 0.10N.
• Large Counts: All expected counts are at least 5.

Carrying Out a Test
Conditions for Performing a Chi-Square Test
for Goodness of Fit
• Random: The data come from a random sample from the population of
interest.
◦ 10%: When sampling without replacement, n < 0.10N.
• Large Counts: All expected counts are at least 5.
AP® Exam Tip

When checking the Large Counts condition, be sure to examine the
expected counts, not the observed counts. And make sure to write and
label the expected counts on your paper or you won’t receive credit.

Carrying Out a Test
The Chi-Square Test for Goodness of Fit

Suppose the conditions are met. To perform a test of H0: The stated distribution of
a categorical variable in the population of interest is correct compute the chi-
square test statistic:
where the sum is over the k different categories. The P-value is the area to the
right of 2 under the chi-square density curve with k – 1 degrees of freedom.

Carrying Out a Test
Problem: In his book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell suggests that
a hockey player’s birth month has a big influence on his chance
to make it to the highest levels of the game. Specifically,
Canva Pty Ltd/Alamy

because January 1 is the cut-off date for youth leagues in
Canada [where many National Hockey League (NHL) players
come from], players born in January will be competing against
players up to 12 months younger. The older players tend to be bigger, stronger, and
more coordinated and hence get more playing time, more coaching, and have a
better chance of being successful. To see if birth date is related to success (judged
by whether a player makes it into the NHL), a random sample of 80 NHL players
from a recent season was selected and their birthdays were recorded. The one-
way table summarizes the data on birthdays for these 80 players.
Do these data provide convincing evidence that the birthdays of NHL players are
not uniformly distributed across the four quarters of the year?

Carrying Out a Test
Problem: … a random sample of 80 NHL players from a recent
season was selected and their birthdays were recorded. The
one-way table summarizes the data on birthdays for these
Canva Pty Ltd/Alamy

80 players.

Carrying Out a Test
Canva Pty Ltd/Alamy

80 players.
STATE
H0: The birthdays of all NHL players are uniformly distributed across
the four quarters of the year.
Ha: The birthdays of all NHL players are not uniformly distributed
across the four quarters of the year.
We’ll use α = 0.05.

Carrying Out a Test
Canva Pty Ltd/Alamy

80 players.
PLAN
Chi-square test for goodness of fit
• Random: The data came from a random sample of NHL players ✓
◦ 10%: We must assume that 80 is less than 10% of all NHL players ✓
• Large Counts: All expected counts = 80(1/4) = 20 ≥ 5 ✓

Carrying Out a Test
Canva Pty Ltd/Alamy

80 players.
DO
2 (3 2− 20)2 (20 − 20)2 (16 −20)2 (12 −20)2
𝜒 = + + + =7.2+ 0+0.8+3.2=11.2
20 20 20 20
df = 4 – 1 = 3
Using Table C: The P-value is between 0.01 and 0.02
Using technology: 2 cdf(lower:11.2, upper:10000, df:3) = 0.011

Carrying Out a Test
Canva Pty Ltd/Alamy

80 players.
CONCLUDE
Because the P-value of 0.011 < α = 0.05, we reject H0. We have
convincing evidence that the birthdays of NHL players are not
uniformly distributed across the four quarters of the year.

Carrying Out a Test

Carrying Out a Test

Carrying Out a Test

Carrying Out a Test
Note: When you run the chi-square test for goodness of fit on the TI-84
calculator, a list of these individual components will be produced and stored
in a list called CNTRB (for contribution).
Carrying Out a Test
AP® Exam Tip

You can use your calculator to carry out the mechanics of a significance
test on the AP® Statistics exam. But there’s a risk involved. If you just
give the calculator answer with no work, and one or more of your
values is incorrect, you will likely get no credit for the “Do” step. We
recommend writing out the first few terms of the chi-square calculation
followed by “. . .”. This approach might help you earn partial credit if you
enter a number incorrectly. Be sure to name the procedure (chi-square
test for goodness of fit) and to report the test statistic (2 = 11.2),
degrees of freedom (df = 3), and P-value (0.011).

Follow-up Analysis
If the sample data lead to a statistically significant result,

we can conclude that our variable has a distribution
different from the one stated.

Follow-up Analysis

To investigate how the distribution is different, start by

identifying the categories that contribute the most to the
chi-square statistic.

Follow-up Analysis

To investigate how the distribution is different, start by

identifying the categories that contribute the most to the
chi-square statistic.

Follow-up Analysis

Follow-up Analysis
The two biggest contributions to the chi-square statistic came
from Jan–Mar and Oct–Dec.

Follow-up Analysis
In October through December,

8 fewer players were born
than expected.

Follow-up Analysis
In October through December, In January through March,

8 fewer players were born 12 more players were born
than expected. than expected.

Section Summary
LEARNING TARGETS
After this section, you should be able to:
 STATE appropriate hypotheses and COMPUTE the expected
counts and chi-square test statistic for a chi-square test for
goodness of fit.
 STATE and CHECK the Random, 10%, and Large Counts conditions
for performing a chi-square test for goodness of fit.
 CALCULATE the degrees of freedom and P-value for a chi-square
test for goodness of fit.
 PERFORM a chi-square test for goodness of fit.
 CONDUCT a follow-up analysis when the results of a chi-square
test are statistically significant.

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Chapter 11

Inference for Distributions of

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Here’s what the Consumer Affairs Department of

Ramón Rivera Moret

Here’s what the Consumer Affairs Department of

Ramón Rivera Moret

Jerome’s class wondered if the

Ramón Rivera Moret

Jerome’s class wondered if the

Ramón Rivera Moret

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Ramón Rivera Moret

Ramón Rivera Moret

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Ramón Rivera Moret

We can also write the hypotheses in symbols.

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Ramón Rivera Moret

We can also write the hypotheses in symbols.

Ramón Rivera Moret

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Brown: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Brown: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Green: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Brown: (60)(0.125) = 7.5 Green: (60)(0.125) = 7.5

Calculating Expected Counts in a

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

The statistic we use to make the comparison is the

chi-square test statistic 2.

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

2 (12 −7.5)2 (3 −7.5)2 (7 − 7.5)2 (9 −7.5)2 ( 9− 15)2 (20 −15)2

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

2 (12 −7.5)2 (3 −7.5)2 (7 − 7.5)2 (9 −7.5)2 ( 9− 15)2 (20 −15)2

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

(a) State the hypotheses that Carrie should test.

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

(a) State the hypotheses that Carrie should test.

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

(a) State the hypotheses that Carrie should test.

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

(a) State the hypotheses that Carrie should test.

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Larger values of 2 give more

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Larger values of 2 give more

Our estimated P-value is

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

• As the degrees of freedom

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics

Starnes/Tabor, The Practice of Statistics