International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021)

For
Center for Strategic and International Studies
October 6, 2021 | Washington, DC
By
Stephen Nalley, Acting Administrator
Angelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.

• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 2
 Energy use is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels
quickly in non-OECD regions
Energy consumption by sector Energy consumption by sector
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

OECD non-OECD
500 500
history projections history projections

400 400

300 300

industrial
200 200
industrial
100 transportation 100 transportation
commercial commercial
0 residential residential
0

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 3
IEO2021 includes COVID-19 impacts; Side cases include
alternative assumptions and newly expanded results
• IEO2021 Reference case
– Incorporates global COVID-19 impacts on the energy sector
– Uses the U.S. projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021, which
assumes U.S. laws and regulations as of September 2020
– Assumes implementation of current laws and regulations as of May 2021, including
existing climate law; Climate Considerations in the International Energy
Outlook (IEO2021) provides more details
1

– Uses Oxford Economics’ GDP projections, with a global growth rate of 2.8% per year
– Assumes 2050 world oil price reaches $95 per barrel (2020 dollars)

• Side cases explore alternative economic growth and oil price

assumptions
– High and Low Economic Growth cases: 3.7% per year and 2.0% per year global
GDP growth rate
– High and Low Oil Price cases: $176 per barrel and $45 per barrel 2050 world oil
prices (2020 dollars)
1
EIA, Climate Considerations in the International Energy Outlook (IEO2021), https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/climate.php

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 4
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent
and impartial energy information to promote sound
policymaking, efficient markets, and public
understanding of energy and its interaction with the
economy and the environment.

EIA’s role is unique. By providing an unbiased view

of energy markets, EIA increases transparency and
promotes public understanding of important energy
issues.

EIA has expanded its program in recent years to

provide a growing customer base with coverage of
increasingly complex and interrelated energy
markets.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 5
EIA assumes a range of GDP and oil prices, which affect
projected energy consumption
Gross domestic product World oil prices Global energy consumption
trillion 2015 dollars 2020 dollars per barrel quadrillion British thermal units
$400 $200 1,400
history projections history projections history projections
High $175 High Oil Price
$350 1,200
Economic High Economic Growth
Growth $150 High Oil Price
$300 Reference 1,000 Reference
Low $125
$250 Economic
non-OECD 800
Growth $100 Reference
$200 High
Economic 600 Low Oil Price
$75
$150 Growth Low Economic Growth
Reference Low Oil Price
$50 400
$100 Low
Economic
$25 200
$50 Growth
OECD
$0
$0 0

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 6
IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.

• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 7
By 2050, global energy use increases nearly 50%, driven by non-
OECD economic growth and population
World energy consumption World gross domestic product (GDP) Population
quadrillion British thermal units trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP)
billion people
1,000 $250 9000
history projections history projections history projections
8000
non-OECD
800 $200 7000 non-OECD
6000
600 $150
non-OECD 5000

4000
400 $100
OECD
3000

200 $50 2000

OECD OECD
1000
0 $0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 8
Liquid fuels remain the largest source of primary energy in the
Reference case, but renewables use grows to nearly the same level
Primary energy consumption by energy source, world Share of primary energy consumption by source, world
quadrillion British thermal units percentage
history projections
300 petroleum 100%
history projections
and other 90% renewables
250 liquids1
renewables2 80%
70%
200 natural gas coal
coal 60%
petroleum
150 50% and other
liquids
40%
1
100 30%
natural gas
20%
50
nuclear nuclear
10%
0 0%
2020 2050
1
Includes biofuels
2
Electricity generation from renewable sources is converted to Btu at a rate of 8,124 Btu/kWh
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 9
Liquid fuels consumption rises from 2020 in all IEO cases
World liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
160 High Economic
history projections
Growth
140 High Oil Price
Reference
120 Low Oil Price
Low Economic
100 Growth

80

60

40

20

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 10
Electric vehicle stock contributes to reduced emissions and
represents 31% of total passenger vehicle stock by 2050
Light-duty passenger vehicle stock
billions of passenger vehicles
total passenger stock conventional stock electric stock1
1500 1500 1500
history projections history projections history projections

1200 1200 1200

non-OECD
non-OECD
900 900 900
OECD
OECD
600 600 600
non-OECD

300 300 300

OECD
0 0 0

1
Electric stock includes full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that run on liquid
fuels when batteries become depleted

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 11
Energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rise, even as
carbon and energy intensity fall
Energy-related CO2 emissions Carbon intensity Energy intensity
billion metric tons metric tons CO2 per billion thousand British thermal units
British thermal units per 2015 dollar of GDP
45000 90 9
history projections
40000 80 8
35000 70 7
non-OECD
30000 60 6
25000 50 OECD 5
non-OECD non-OECD
20000 40 4
15000 30 3 OECD
10000 20 2
OECD
5000 10 1
0 0 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 12
IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.

• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 13
In the electric power sector, renewable energy generation grows
significantly, with support from non-intermittent sources
World net electricity generation by source OECD electricity generation Non-OECD electricity
trillion kilowatthours change from 2020 generation change from 2020
trillion kilowatthours trillion kilowatthours
12 14 14
history projections
non-renewables
solar 12 12
10 renewables
coal 10 10
8 natural
8 8
gas
wind 6 6
6
hydro-
electric 4 4
4
nuclear 2 2
2 0 0
other
-2 -2
0

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2030

2035

2040

2050
2025

2045
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 14
Growing intermittent generating capacity is supported by different
technologies, depending on each region’s respective resources
Installed electricity generating capacity, India Installed electricity generating capacity, Canada
gigawatts gigawatts
3,000 250
history projections history projections
other
2,500 battery solar
storage 200
wind
other
2,000
150
1,500 hydroelectric
solar
100
1,000 wind nuclear
hydroelectric natural gas
nuclear 50
500 coal
natural gas
coal
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 15
IEO2021 Highlights
• As a result of population and economic growth, if current policy and
technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity demand, but natural
gas and coal, and increased use of batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.

• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 16
 Nearly all energy consumption growth occurs in non-OECD
Asia, driven by economic growth
Average annual percentage change in Non-OECD energy consumption OECD energy consumption by
GDP, 2020–2050, select regions by region region
percentage quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
700 700
India history projections history projections
Other Asia 600 600
Africa
China 500 500
Other Europe and Eur...
Other Americas 400 400
Middle East Asia
300 300
Russia Asia
Brazil Middle East
200 200
Africa Americas
Americas
total non-O ECD 100 100
Europe and
total OECD Europe
0 Eurasia 0
0% 2% 4% 6%

2020
2010

2030

2040

2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 17
Non-OECD Asia leads growth in liquid fuels consumption
but has limited increases in crude oil production
Total liquid fuels consumption by select regions Crude oil production by select regions
million barrels per day million barrels per day
20 20

China
Other non-
15 OECD Asia 15
India

10 10

5 5 China
Other non-
OECD Asia
0 India
0
2020 2030 2040 2050

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 18
IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.

• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

October 6, 2021 19
Upcoming IEO2021 Issues in Focus
• Energy implications of potential iron- and steel-sector decarbonization
pathways

• Effects of changes in coal supply and demand on international trade and

electricity generation in India and Other non-OECD Asia

• Changes in composition of economic growth in China

IEO2021 Release, CSIS

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IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 21