September 14, 2020

How And Why Consumers

Are Baking At Home

1
Today’s Presentation
What Consumers Mean When They Say ‘Baking’ 3
Baking Frequency & Skill 5
What They Bake & How 8
The Importance of Nutrition 11
Shopping: How & Where 15
Baking Inspiration & The Importance of Baking 18
Takeaways to Act On 23

Contact 27
Objectives & Methodology 28

2 Mintel Consulting: September 2019

 What Consumers Mean When They Say
‘Baking’

3 Mintel Consulting: September 2019

‘Scratch Baking’ Gets More Literal
Half of consumers have a strict definition of scratch baking, while the rest allow the use of boxed, pre-mixed, or pre-
rolled out. The rise of scratch “purists” appears to reflect consumer preference for whole, less processed foods.

26% Purchase and combine Purchase and combine

all ingredients separately 28% all ingredients separately

Purchase and combine Purchase and combine at

at least a few ingredients least a few ingredients
separately; not a mix 45% separately; not using
51%
baking mixes
Could include a baking
mix; may not require Use a baking mix and
purchasing ingredients combine ingredients as/if
separately required
23%

27%

September 2019 August 2011

Q4: How do you define scratch baking? N=1,977

Q5: When you are baking, how often do you use each of the following methods?
4 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 Please enter a percentage of your time for each method, adding up to 100%. N=1,977
 Baking Frequency & Skill

5 Mintel Consulting: September 2019

Home Baking Frequency: 2019 vs 2011
Between 2011 and 2019, some weekly bakers became daily bakers, and some non-bakers moved up to 2-6 times
per year bakers.

Never, no one in my hh bakes Every day

Never, but someone else Never, no one in my hh 9% 5%
bakes in my hh bakes Every day
4% Never, but
5% 11% someone else
A couple times a bakes in my hh
year 5%
16%
A couple times
a year
11% At least once a
At least once week
a week 39%
About every other
33%
About every other month
month 7%
9% At least once a
month
24%
At least once a month
23%
September 2019 August 2011
2,000 adults; 217 daily bakers, 659 weekly bakers 2,000 adults; 107 daily bakers, 772 weekly bakers
“Ever bake” = 1,830, “Regular bake” = 876 “Ever bake” = 1,724, “Regular bake” = 879
Q1: How often would you say that you bake at home? “How often would you say that you bake at home?”
6 Mintel Consulting: September 2019
Perspective: Number of Cooking Enthusiasts Remains High
Cooking Enthusiasts number around 113 million people, representing 45% of US adults
The 43 million Conflicted Cooks are a prime opportunity to bring more bakers into the kitchen

Share and approximate number* of cooking enthusiasts, Estimated share and number* of adults,
2014-2018 by cooking segment

Almost exactly the number

of daily + weekly bakers!

Mintel’s Cooking Enthusiasts report – Oct 2018; Base: 2,000 internet users aged 18+
* approximate number based among adults 18+; measurements based on a test of frequency, enjoyment, skills, motivation
7
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel; Estimated number of adults based on US Census Bureau’s PEP, July 2017/Mintel
 What They Bake & How

8
Foods Baked at Home
• Compare to 2011: Incidence of using a mix for nearly every item declined 5-20 percentage points.
• Baking from scratch rose for most items by 0-8 points.
• Baking repertoire is fairly wide: almost 9 of the 14 items surveyed baked in past 6 months
• Most baked only from scratch: cookies (40%); nothing else exceeds 27%

Cookies 83%
Brownies 77% Brownies: -20 points for mixes and +8
Standard cake (eg birthday) 75% points for scratch
Biscuits 71%
Muffins 70% Only sweet pies and tarts bucked the
Cupcakes 68% trend, with +5 for mixes and -4 for scratch
Breads, rolls, cinnamon rolls, soft pretzels, etc 67%
Quick breads (eg banana, pancakes) 63%
Pies and tarts (eg apple pie) 60%
Pizza dough, focaccia, etc 57%
Custards or puddings 49%
Savory pies (eg chicken pot pie) 48%
Bars 46%
Doughnuts, fritters, hush puppies 40%

9 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 Q6: Have you baked [item] at home in the last 6 months? N=1,830
Food Safety

Follow Safe Raw Food Practices Taste Batter/Dough

Rarely Never
4% 2% Nearly all bakers Yet, 59% say that they
(93%) say that Never
always or frequently taste
they follow safe 16%
Always
batter/dough or give to
raw food practices 27% others to taste

Frequently
28%
Rarely
25%
Always
Frequently
65%
32%

Who is most likely to “always” taste batter and dough?

Daily bakers! At 62%, compared to 27% of weekly bakers, and 20% for all other groups.
Since there are only 217 daily bakers, totals always or frequently tasting is about equally spread across all types of bakers.

Q9: How often do you follow safe raw food practices when Q10: When preparing dough or batter, how often do
handling uncooked/unbaked flour (eg cleaning spills from you taste it or give it to others to taste? N=1,830
surfaces before other foods are placed there, etc)? N=1,783
10 Mintel Consulting: September 2019
 The Importance of Nutrition

11
Motivators For Selecting Baking Ingredients - 2
Biggest gainers are indulgent and premium
Even back in 2011, I noted that we are a “treat society,” and that has certainly continued
Differential from 2011

Sweet flavor 65% n/a Additionally, for every single

Customizable 59% attribute shown, 17%-26% of
n/a
consumers say that it is "very
All natural 57% +9 important" to them
Premium/gourmet 54% +16
Every one of these represents
Indulgent 50% +24 a large, marketable niche
High in fiber 49% +8
Combining two or more
High in protein 48% +11 attributes gives a product
Whole grain 47%
mainstream likeability
+2

Organic 39% +15

Q12: How important are each of the following attributes when you are selecting
12 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 ingredients that are intended to be used for baking? N=1,915
Motivators for Selecting Baking Ingredients, by Type of Baker
The importance of nutrition is directly proportional to frequency of home baking
A close look at regular bakers shows that they care about every nutritional aspect. The gap is biggest for
less well-known attributes or issues, such as allergies.

Overall nutritional content 63%

No artificial additives, preservatives, or colors 60%
Monthly Bakers 87% Minimally processed 58%
All natural 57%
Weekly Bakers 64% High fructose corn syrup-free 56%
Low sodium 51%
Daily Bakers 52%
Low cholesterol 49%
Low sugar 48%
Low fat 46%
Non-GMO 46%
Cholesterol free 43%
Low calorie 43%
Monthly Bakers 79% Organic 39%
Non-fat 38%
Weekly Bakers 36% Sugar free 37%
Daily Bakers 23% Gluten-free 32%
Dairy-free 29%

Q11: How important are each of the following attributes when you are selecting
13 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 ingredients that are intended to be used for baking? N=1,915
Natural Claims on Products Grows in Line With Frequent Bakers
Between Feb 2014 and Jan 2019, the natural claim category has grown 21 percentage points
in baking ingredients & mixes and sugar & sweeteners in North America

North America: Baking ingredients & mixes and Sugars & sweeteners new product launches with natural claims, 2014-2020

41% 41%
38%
38%

33%
26%
% of launches

27% 21% 22% Any natural claim

19% GMO Free
22%
17% 19% Organic
19% 19% 20%
No Additives/Preservatives
13% 15% 16%
8%
11% 11% 12% 12%
6% 11%
6% 10%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Aug)

14 Source: Mintel GNPD

 Shopping: How & Where

15
Channels Shopped Widens
Grocery stores and mass merchants lead shopping visits by a wide margin
• Yet, compared to 2011 (not shown), these two channels are the big losers
• Club stores and online retailers gained the most (online registered 1% in 2011), but c-stores, specialty stores, drug stores,
dollar stores, and natural food stores all gained a few percentage points
Online-only (Amazon) is generating a lot of frequency among users, but since the base of shoppers is only 20% as large
as for the other channels, it has the smallest number of visits
Always or almost always Frequently
Vs 2011
Online-only retailer 18% Online-only retailer 37%
Convenience store 10% Convenience store 15%
Specialty store 10% Specialty store 17%
Drug store 8% Drug store 13%
Dollar store 10% Dollar store 20%
Natural food store 12% Natural food store 20%
Small format grocery store 15% Small format grocery store 27%
Supermarket/grocery store 48% Supermarket/grocery store 40%
Club store 14% Vs 2011 Vs 2011 Club store 27%
Mass merchandiser 31% Mass merchandiser 39%
Vs 2011

16 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 Q19: How often do you shop for baking ingredients at each of these locations? N=1,823 except online N=357
In-store vs. Online Ingredient Purchasing
1% 1%

5%
20% of bakers do at least some
ingredient shopping online I do all of it in-store
13%
I do most of it in-store,
COVID estimate:
but some online
Incidence rose to 33%-37% during
May through July.
I do it equally in-store
and online
It is now falling back, but will retain a
permanent pandemic bump. I do most of it online,
but some in-store

I do all of it online
80%

17 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 Q17: How do you typically shop for baking ingredients? N=1,823
 Baking Inspiration & The Importance of
Baking

18
It’s All About Controlling Ingredients & Maintaining Family
Traditions
Controlling ingredients is an even more important motivator than family traditions, and it is the only one where
"strongly agree" exceeds "somewhat agree"
Differential from 2011

Baking enables me to control the ingredients used in my food 79% +19 (largest gain)

Baking is one of the ways that I keep up family traditions 66% +17

Baking at home enables me to cut down on my shopping bill 56%

+13
I would bake more from scratch if I had better baking skills/
53%
knowledge n/a

Baking from scratch takes too much time 45%

+15
I like to show my baking skills on social media and/or to family
41%
and friends n/a

It’s less expensive to buy cakes and bread than to bake them 41%
+17

19 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 Q21: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about baking at home? N=1,830
Baking is Sharing, But Sometimes It’s a Me Thing
All of these occasions are strong baking motivators, as respondents chose nearly 4 out of 5

I bake for special occasions (eg birthdays, Christmas) 89%

I bake to share food with friends and family 88%

Baking is a fun activity to do with children 78%

I bake as a hobby for myself 70%

Children often decide what we bake at home 66%

Q25: Thinking about baking occasions, which the following statements describe you?
20 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 N=1,830 except children at home N=799
Where Did You Learn to Bake? “Mom”, School, and the Internet

Sum of
1st 2nd 3rd
1st-2nd-3rd
At home from a parent or relative 61% 18% 14% 92%
Any social media - - - 65%
TV baking/cooking shows 11% 26% 22% 58%
Watching videos online 8% 17% 21% 46%
Home Economics or Family and
Consumer Sciences class 8% 19% 12% 39%
Early childhood program 3% 5% 8% 16%
Community program (eg 4-H,
Scouts) 2% 4% 7% 14%
After school program 2% 5% 6% 13%
Career/ tech school class 2% 5% 6% 13%
STEM (science, technology,
engineering, math) class 2% 3% 3% 8%
100% 100% 100% -

Q27: How or where did you first learn to bake? Please select up to three
21 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 of the first ways you learned to bake. Total of 3,489 “votes” cast.
The Internet as Home Baking Teacher
• There is ample opportunity for baking brand websites to become more inspiring and instructive to home bakers
• Leading brands mentioned by name: King Arthur Flour, Kraft, Nestle, Hershey, Martha Stewart
• Other leading online sources mentioned by name: Food Network, allrecipes.com, Taste of Home, google.com,
recipes.com, America's Test Kitchen, Yummly, Epicurious

YouTube 41%

Facebook 36%

Pinterest 29%

Instagram 23%

Blogs/vlogs 13%

Homebaking.org 7%

Brand websites 5%

Other 5%

22 Mintel Consulting: September 2019 Q29: What online sources do you get baking inspiration from? Please select all that apply. N=1,830
 Takeaways to Act On

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Key Takeaways - 1
Pre- pandemic: The number of home bakers was at least holding steady, and the frequency of home baking was
rising as the engagement with food overall rises – running counter to the softness in sales data. Post-pandemic: Both
numbers and frequency of home baking has been given a permanent boost.
• Today’s home bakers have become more “purist” about scratch baking, favoring individual ingredients over
mixes
• Thank social media for both of the above! It has become the #2 teacher of baking skills by making baking easy
• TV baking / cooking shows and home econ is a strong #3 - #4

Position home baked goods against the alternative in terms of taste, health, enjoyment, and cost

• The importance of nutrition is directly proportional to frequency of home baking - regular bakers care about every
nutritional aspect, especially niche concerns, such as allergies, diets, or unique ingredients

• Natural, organic, and free-from ingredient claims attract frequent bakers

• Indulgent and premium positioning also continue to be strong motivators

• Explore and promote cost benefit of being dedicated to taste, health & enjoyment

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• 71% of daily/weekly bakers say that baking cuts down on their shopping bill, compared to 46% of everyone else
Mintel Consulting: September 2019
Key Takeaways - 2
Online baking ingredient purchases are relatively low, but will be the fastest growing area for years to come
• Focus on product quality, as always, but put effort into “the online purchase-delivery-repurchase” experience
• Direct-from-brand website sales can achieve the above while also providing baking inspiration

Use the internet to continue converting Non-Bakers, but focus extra effort on Conflicted Bakers

• Borrowing from Mintel’s Cooking Enthusiasts study, there are more Conflicted Bakers than Non-Bakers.
Conflicteds bake, and are twice as likely as other groups to have children, but they never learned to like
baking. Non-Bakers have been more or less converting themselves into infrequent bakers via social media.

• Note that with only 30% of households having kids these days, it is a good idea to court the 70% of
respondents who cite baking as a “hobby for myself,” possibly with sophisticated, less sweet baking ideas

25 Mintel Consulting: September 2019

Key Takeaways - 3
Engage consumers through social media about corporate responsibility – if a company is passionate about its
social initiatives, it should be talking about it loudly enough to inspire consumers to get involved (from 2011)
• Mintel formula for building a brand around “Conscious Consumers”:
• Cut through clutter / make your company personal or create a community
• Keep consumers engaged by making your mission a shared mission
• Guide consumers through back-sliding after early enthusiasm wanes
• Taking this initiative will help keep customers engaged and make them more likely to ride out any difficulties

Top two home baking motivators – controlling ingredients and maintaining family traditions
• At 79% and 66% of bakers, these were the leading vote-getters in 2011 and they gained the most in 2019

26 Mintel Consulting: September 2019

For further information please contact…

David Lockwood Kim DiDomenico

Director of Consulting AVP Business Development
312.450. 6044 312.450.6099
dlockwood@mintel.com kdidomenico@mintel.com

Thank you!

27
Objectives & Methodology
In the face of a rapidly changing baking landscape, the Home Never, no one in my hh bakes (71)
Baking Association (HBA) would like to learn as much as possible Never, but someone else bakes in my hh (99) 4% Every day (217)
about consumer baking behaviors and how they are changing in 5% 11%
2019. Mintel has partnered with HBA to refresh and expand our
At least once
2011 Baking Behavior Study. The results will help stakeholders a week (659)
understand the ways consumers are engaging with key home baking A couple times a year (322)16%
trends at home, in-store and online. A few of our topics are who
bakes at home, how they started baking, baking inspiration, the
ingredients they use, and the resources they turn to. 33%
About every other month (180)
9%

All respondents 100% (2,000)

Ever bake 92% (1,830)
At least once a month (452)
Daily or weekly bakers 44% (876) 23%

Mintel conducted an online survey during August 30 – September 15, 2019 among a sample of 2,000 US adults aged 18+ with access to
the internet. Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally
representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly oversamples, relative to the population, Black
respondents to ensure an adequate representation of this group in the survey results. Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted
online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results. Lightspeed
hosted the survey, Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting.

28 Mintel Consulting: September 2019