Dr. Lloyd C.

Bautista, Evidence-based Policy

DPA
Analysis
Identify what are public policies

• RA No. 7160 or the Local Government Code

• West Philippine Sea
• Non-negotiation with kidnappers and terrorists
• Internal rules and regulations on corporate governance by
PLDT
• A statement from Malacanang that “the President is in
good health despite rumors.”
• Treaties and international agreement
• Handing over jeep fare from one passenger to another
• Local government budget
• A PNP officer caught extorting money in primetime TV.
Let us define Public
Policy
• Question can be responded to by delineating
public policy into its two etymological roots.
• What is “PUBLIC”?
• What is “POLICY”?
• Public is the ‘other’…outside individual
boundaries… ‘relatedness’ with fellows and
community.
• Policy is the act of ‘policing’ or the product of
‘policing’
 • “…what governments do, why
they do it, and what difference
it makes.” - Thomas Dye
• “a projected program of goals,
What is values and practices.” – Harold
public Laswell
policy in • “a purposive course of actions
literatures? followed by an actor or set of
actors in dealing with a
problem or matter of concern.”
– James Anderson
 • “…whatever government choose to
do or not to do.” (Thomas Dye,
1984)

What is • “…a proposed course of action of a

person, group, or government

policy? within a given environment

providing obstacles and
opportunities which the policy was
proposed to utilize and overcome in
an effort to reach a goal or realize
an objective or purpose.” (Carl
Friedrich, 1963)
Nicolaïdis’s definition:
Policy is a rule of action, manifesting or clarifying
organization goals, objectives, values, or ideals and
often prescribing the obligatory or most desirable
ways and means for their accomplishment.

Such rule for action established for the purpose of

framing, guiding, or directing organizational
activities, including decision making, and intends to
provide relative stability, consistency, uniformity,
and continuity in the operations of the organization.
*We observe recurring themes:

1. Purpose or objective
2. Control or authority to act
3. Action (single, series, or plain inaction)
4. Effects/consequences of that action
5. Public dimension (problems,
pressures, obstacles, demands, or
issues)
 Public welfare, general
good, or community interest

*What It refers to the “Common

do you Good”.

mean by Why is there a need for

public? common good?
• Practical Management
• Philosophical
• Ethical
*Principle of
Common Good
• Remember that man cannot find
fulfillment in himself since he exists
‘with’ and ‘for’ others.
• It is the “ sum total of social
conditions which allow people to,
either as groups or as individuals, to
reach their fulfillment more fully
and easily.”
• It is “common” because it is
indivisible and only together can we
attain, increase and safeguard its
effectiveness…today and future.
• Responsibility of common good of
all people and of the whole person
falls to all
Domestic abuse
*Integral Promotion of the person and
his fundamental rights
• Commitment to peace
• Sound juridical system
• Environment protection
• Provision of essential services: food, housing,
education, work, transportation, basic health care
• Freedoms: expression, press, speech, and religion

Common good is the reason that political authority

of the State exists!
 Public Policy & Role of Government
Market failures

Concept of public goods

Legitimacy of government actions

Universality

Coercion or monopoly over the use of legitimate force

 • A generic term that covers all aspects
wherein Government intervenes and
positions itself to ensured that the public
is protected, preserved and promoted
• It includes all the many elements that
enable residents of a community to enjoy

Public its streets, sidewalks, parks and other

public spaces providing them a sense of
security in their homes, schools and
good workplaces as well
• Refers to the defense or systems in place
for the protection of the community
against all forms of negativism that
affects the health and welfare of the
public (e.g., natural calamities, disasters,
floods, criminality, terrorism, famine,
drought, and similar events).
 Public policy
• It is what public officials within government, and by
extension the citizens they represent, choose to do or
not to do about public problems.
• Public problems are conditions the public widely
perceives to be unacceptable and that therefore
require intervention. Example are environmental
degradation, insufficient access to health care services
addressed through government action; private action,
where individuals or corporations take the
responsibility; or a combination of the two.
• The choice depends on how the public defines the
problem and on prevailing societal attitudes about
private action in relation to government’s role.
 Market (public) failures
Public Goods
– tragedy of the commons (i.e. pure, common
& marketable)

Externalities
- when one party’s actions make another
worse or better off, yet the first party neither
bears the costs nor receives the benefit
(Gruber, 2011)
Public sector failure
Information Asymmetry
- one side of the market has better information or
knowledge about a good than the other (i.e. adverse
selection & moral hazard)

Monopoly
– seller controls the supply-side of the
market and has complete control over the
amount offered for sale with little
incentive to produce more than what the
market demands (deadweight loss).
The Tools of Government

1. Laws, directives and commands.

2. Finance, in the form of funding, subsidies, tax incentives
or penalties.
3. Allocation and development of people
4. Structural changes in agencies.
5. Knowledge
6. Use of third parties
7. Contracting out of tasks
8. Partnerships
9. Regulations and rules
Source: Mulgan, G. (2009). The Art of Public Strategy:
Mobilizing Power and Knowledge for the Common
Good. London: Oxford University. (pp. 94-95)
What is policy analysis?

• Policy analysis is an applied

social science discipline which
uses multiple methods of inquiry
and arguments to produce and
transform policy-relevant
information that may be used in
political setting to resolve public
problems (Dunn, 1981).
• Policy analysis is a means of
synthesizing information
including research results to
produce a format for policy
decisions (Williams, 1971).
Policy analysis
• Analysis means deconstructing an object of study—that is, breaking it
down into its basic elements to understand it better.
• Policy analysis is the examination of components of public policy, the
policy process, or both. It is the study of the causes and consequences of
policy decisions.
• Duncan MacRae and James A. Wilde (1979, 4) have called policy analysis
“the use of reason and evidence to choose the best policy among a
number of alternatives.”
• Policy analysis uses many different methods of inquiry and draws from
various disciplines to obtain the information needed to assess a problem
and think clearly about alternative ways to resolve it.
Aaron Wildavsky said,
Policy analysis is one activity for which there can be
no fixed program, for policy analysis is synonymous
with creativity, which may be stimulated by theory
and sharpened by practice, which can be learned
but not taught.
 • Breaking problems into basic parts

Policy • Methodology based on scientific methods.

• Drawn freely from various disciplines
Analysis (economics, stats, public admin, and
management)
• Rests on art, craft and persuasion.
Gaps in the Policy
Communication
 Decision makers are not informed-users and fear
political consequences.
 Policy researchers must become more
circumspect yet assertive in selling policy ideas.
 Harold Laswell’s speaking truth to power .
(Rommel)
 Policy
Performance
EVALUATION FORECASTING

Problem
Structuring

Observed Expected
Problem Policy Problem
Policy Structuring Structuring Policy
problems
Outcomes Outcomes

Problem
Structuring

MONITORING RECOMMEND-
ATION

Preferred
Policies

Source: Dunn, W (2004). The Process of Integrated Policy Analysis

5 Type of Questions
in Policy Analysis.
1. What is the nature of the Problem Structuring
policy problem?
2. Which two or more courses Recommendation
of action should be selected
to solve the problem?
3. What are the outcomes of Forecasting
each action?
4. Did the outcomes contribute
Monitoring
in solving the problem?
5. What future outcomes can
Evaluation
be expected if other actions
were selected instead?
Context in public policy

• Public policy is not made in a vacuum. It is affected by social and economic

conditions, prevailing political values and the public mood at any given time,
the structure of government, and national and local cultural norms, among
other variables.
• The environment determines which problems rise to prominence, which
policy alternatives receive serious consideration, and which actions are
viewed as economically and politically feasible.
• Some aspects of the policy environment, such as the U.S. system of
separation of powers and the nation’s free-market economy, are relatively
stable. Others, such as which party controls the White House and Congress,
the public mood or political climate, and media coverage of policy-related
developments, can vary considerably over time. To underscore how these
variables shape the policymaking process, we offer a brief description of the
social, economic, political, governing, and cultural contexts of public policy.
1 Framing the problems

 What are the unrealized needs, values & opportunities.

 Specify the distinction between a public problem vs. issue.
 Don’t commit the mistake of identifying the right solution to the wrong
problem.

1. SWOT Analysis
2. Force Field Analysis
3. Ishakawa/Fishbone Diagram
4. Brainstorming
5. Problem Tree Analysis
6. Boundary analysis
7. Classification analysis
8. Hierarchy analysis
9. Multiple perspective analysis
Problem Structuring Tools 10. Argumentation mapping
 Problem Structuring Model
 Environment  Event (catalytic)
 External force  Evolution
Broad
Problem

 Stakeholders’ interview
 Secondary data collection Problem
 Socio-cultural and historical scanning
Problem  Adjustments
sensing  New discoveries

Wicked
Problem

 Cause-effect Formalized problem

 Theoretical assumptions Problem into policy issue
 Patterns of experience scoping

 Detailed
Core Problem  Specific
Problem specifying  Technical
 Research-based

Source: Bautista, TL (2015)

2 Defining objectives & value preferences

Goal: Increase R&D to boost the country’s technological security

OBJECTIVES STAKEHOLDERS PUBLIC VALUE PUBLIC VALUE

PREFERENCE CRITIQUE
1. Increase R&D • DBM • R&D is • Technology is
budget by 1.5% of • Legislators traded-off to important to
the GAA from • DOTC programs on the country’s
2019-2022. • Academe poverty national
• Private sector alleviation. security.

2. Develop • AFP • Privacy of • Protection of

cybersecurity apps • DBM information the right to
to protect AFP’s • Legislators may be data privacy
communication • Academe infringed for
national
security
 • Public policies reflect not only society’s most
important values but also conflicts among values.
• Policies represent which of many different values
Values in receive the highest priority in any given decision.

policy • David Easton (1965) captured this view in his

often quoted observation that politics is “the
authoritative allocation of values for a society.”
choices • What Easton meant was that the actions of
policymakers can determine definitively and with
the force of law which of society’s different and
sometimes conflicting values will prevail.
What is ‘public value’?

• Value is the “relative worth, utility, or importance” of something.

• Barry Bozeman’s (2007) public value refers to normative consensus on
(1) the rights, benefits, and prerogatives to which citizens are / not
entitled; (2) their obligations to society; & (3) the principles on which
state and policies are based.
• Mark Moore’s (1995) creating public value is as equivalent of a
shareholder value. In fact, he called it “public value accounting,” (1) it is
defined thru democratic processes of how collective assets should be
deployed; (2) include not only govt assets but state authority; & (3)
assessing value of govt production depends on aggregate C/B and also
collective welfare, duties to others, and conception of just & good
society.
• Definition of public value included input, process, output & outcome
measures
3 Narrow down your policy choices.

 Cost-benefit (C/B) analysis – net benefits are more than the cost the
policy choice will produce.
 Cost-effectiveness – ratio of the goods/services produced vis-à-vis the
cost/expense
 Least-cost criterion vs. marginal effectiveness
 Discounting of C/B to obtain Net Present Value

Kuala Lumpur is the official capital of Malaysia, and it is also the center
of business and finance in the country. But the day-to-day
administration of government has now shifted to the “intelligent” city
of Putrajaya, a city entirely designed by Malaysian know-how with
particular attention given to green spaces and the environment.

Source: http://www.malaysiaheritage.net/tours/003-two-capitals-one-
country-tour/
Three Types of Forecasting

Projection a forecast based on the extrapolation of

current and historical trends into the future

Prediction a forecast based on theoretical assumptions

Conjecture a forecast based on informed or expert

judgments
 Methods and Techniques of Forecasting
APPROACH BASIS APPROPRIATE PRODUCT
TECHNIQUES
Extrapolative Trend 1. Classical time-series analysis Projections
extrapolation 2. Linear trend estimation
forecasting 3. Moving average
4. Financial Models (ROI, PV,
NPV, or IRR)

Theoretical Theory 1. Theory mapping Predictions

2. Causal modeling
forecasting 3. Regression analysis
4. Point and interval estimation
5. Correlational analysis

Judgmental Informed 1. Conventional Delphi Conjectures

2. Policy Delphi
forecasting judgment 3. Cross-impact analysis
4. Feasibility assessment
Linear Trend Model

Y = a + b (X)
X Exogenous variable affecting
the endogenous variable Y

a Y-intercept of the line intersecting

the Y-axis when X is zero

b Slope of the line or the factor change

in Y for every unit change in X
 Y = a + b (X)

If we want to forecast the OFW

remittance for 2012, then X is 13.

Linear
Time (X)
YEAR OFW REMITTANCE ($ billion) a = 4.332 b = 1.419
0 2000 6.1
1 2001 6.0
2 2002 6.9 Y = 4.332+ 1.419(13)
3 2003 7.6
4 2004 8.6
5 2005 10.7
6
7
2006
2007
12.8
14.4
Y12 = $22.79 B
8 2008 16.4
9 2009 17.3
10 2010 18.8
11 2011 20.1
 Formula: Yt= a + b (X)
OFW remittances in USD billions

$25.0
$21.4
$20.1
$20.0 $18.8
$17.3
$16.4
$15.0 $14.4
$12.8
$10.7
$10.0 $8.6
$6.9 $7.6
$6.1 $6.0
$5.0

$0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: BSP, 2013

Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey is an American multi-mission, military,
tiltrotor aircraft with both a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL), and
short takeoff and landing (STOL) capability. It is designed to combine
the functionality of a conventional helicopter with the long-range,
high-speed cruise performance of a turboprop aircraft.
 Example of Present Value
Philippine Government wants to get a MV-22 Osprey which
costs $69.3 M. How much does the Osprey cost at 8.5%
discounting factor (DF) one year from now?
How about two years from now?

Present Value = Future Value after t periods

(1 + i)n

.
Present Value (1 yr) = $69.3M = $63.87M
1.085

Present Value (2 yrs) = $69.3M = $58.87M

(1.085)2
 Example of
Present Value
Present Value = Future Value after t periods
(1 + i)t
• Phil Govt plans to build a dam in
Nueva Vizcaya at P400Billion.
• Through a ADB loan of 5%
(discounting factor) how much
will the dam cost 1 or 5 years from
now?

Present Value (1 yr) = P400B = ? P381B

1.05
Present Value (5 yrs) = P400B = ? = P400B = P313B
(1.05)5 1.2763
4 Estimate the risk & uncertainty.

 Map-out the risk/s your policy choice faces.

 Physical (technology) constraints
 Legal constraints (i.e. current laws or policies)
 Organizational constraints (i.e. resistance from employees)
 Political constraints (i.e. press or opposition parties)
 Economic/Financial (i.e. resource distribution)
 Budgetary (i.e. funding)
 External forces (i.e. international agencies)
5 Decide on the most ‘viable’ policy choice.

Effectiveness Efficiency Adequacy

whether an alternative measured by calculating
is the extent to which a
achieves a valued the costs per unit or
given level of
outcome or desired volume of goods,
effectiveness (cost)
end-results/objective. product, or service or
satisfies a need, values,
It is often measured in by calculating the
or opportunities that
units of volume of
give rise to the
products/services or goods/services per unit
problem.
monetary value. of cost 

Responsiveness Equity
Appropriateness distribution of effects
the extent to which a
whether the values or (units of service or
policy satisfies the
worth of the program’s monetary benefit) and
actual needs,
objectives are effort (monetary costs)
preferences, or values
appropriate to society. among different groups
of a particular group
No one should dictate in society has been
(Customer
their value preferences fairly or justly
satisfaction).
undertaken.
6 Monitoring the ‘plausibility’ of the
recommendation against rival claims.
 Current value preference against the past (i.e. divorce laws)
 Legal invalidity (i.e. nuclear power)
 Inefficiency
 Ineffectiveness
 Exclusion or marginalization
 Unresponsiveness
 Illegality
 Unfeasibility
 Inequity
 Inappropriateness
 Mis-formulation
7 Evaluating the policy performance.

• Evaluation refers to the production of information about

the public value or worth of policy outcomes. When policy
outcomes do in fact have value, it is because they contribute
to certain goals or objectives.
• Monitoring is used to produce information about the
causes and consequences of policies and programs.
• Evaluation answers the question: “What differences does it make”
while monitoring answers the question: “What happened, how, and
why?”
• The main question is one of values (Of what worth is it?)