Gold price forecasting

GROUP-07
•Mr. Ankit Manish Modak
•Mr. Yogesh Namdeo Bhosle
• Mr. Akshay Maskar
• Mr. Aditya Gajendra Wargantiwar
•Mr. Siddhesh Suryakant Mestry
• Mr. Nikhil Kiran Jagdale
BUSINESS OBJECTIVE :

 Data provided is related to gold prices. The objective is to understand

the underlying structure in your dataset and come up with a suitable
forecasting model which can effectively forecast gold prices for next 30
days.

 This forecast model will be used by gold exporting and gold importing
companies to understand the metal price movements and accordingly
set their revenue expectations.
PROJECT ARCHITECTURE :

Data
Cleaning
 Data Cleansing
 EDA Model
EDA
Deployment
 Data Visualization
 Data Pre-Processing
Project
 Model Building Architecture
 Model Evaluation
Model Data Pre-
 Model Deployment Evaluation Processing

Model
Building
DATA SET DETAILS :
 Data set has two columns : date and price
 Data has total of 2182 observations
 No null values are present in the data
 * Date (2016-01-01 to 2021-12-21)
 * Price
Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)
Visualization pLOts
 Histogram for 'price' to check it's distribution

 Boxplot for Yearly Gold Price

Inference :

 Data is normally distributed.

 There are a few outliers in the years 2016 and 2021 which indicate that
there are lot of fluctuations in the price.
 Median for all months is approximately same over the years.
 The variation of the data is more in the month of July and less in
January.
 There seem to be some pattern in the data for each year
i.e.seasonality.
Time Series Decomposition Plot :

 Seasonal decompose plot for year 2016 – 2021: model='additive'

Stationarity
 Statistical test : Augmented Dickey Fuller Test

▪ Since the p-value is more than the critical value , we say that the data is non stationary
hence we can go for differencing to make data is Stationary.
 Differencing : to make time-series Stationary

 data is Stationary.
 Line-plot before and after differencing (2016
- 2021)
ACF and PACF plots : before differencing & After
differencing
Model Building and Experimentations

 Splitting the dataset into train and test.

 We give ‘80%’ of the data to train and rest ‘20%’ to test.
 We have 2182 rows: 80% of 2182 is 1745.6 ~= 1746.
 80% of 2182 is 1745.6 ~= 1746
 20% of 2182 is 436.4 ~= 436
1: ARIMA model

 Building ARIMA model of best parameters found by auto-Arima:

order=(4,1,2)
Plotting Train and Test Prediction

 Train Prediction:

 Test Prediction:
Train Accuracy & Test Accuracy
Model 2: Holt-Winters
MODEL Summary:

 print(model_hw.summary())
Plotting Train and Test Prediction

 Train Prediction:

 Test Prediction:
Calculating MAPE and RMSE
Thanking you