KASHMIR: INDIA’S MANEUVERS

TO INTEGRATE KASHMIR AND

PAKISTAN’S RESPONSE
IRFAN WAHEED USMANI
INTRODUCTION

• 5 August: Change in the conflict dynamics of Kashmir

India’s provocative moves and their underlying motives…
• Comments the present situation……
• Suspended judgement
THE TURN THE DISPUTE/ ISSUE HAS TAKEN
SINCE AUGUST 5 2019(I)
• The reasons behind the unilateral action of the Neerendra Modi’s Government on 5
August
• The revocation of Article 370 and 35(A) of the Indian Constitution and its impact/effects
on Constitutional Status of Kashmir in Indian Federation
• The Unilateral action/provocative action of the Indian government and difficult choices
for Pakistan
• The Options before Pakistan
INTRODUCTION

• India’s maneuvers to integrate Kashmir

• The Critical View of India’s Maneuvers
• Pakistan’s response
• Suggestion
• Summing Up
THE REASONS BEHIND THE UNILATERAL ACTION OF THE
NEERENDRA MODI’S GOVERNMENT ON 5 AUGUST (II)

• Mind-set: ideological moorings

Hindu Mahasabha; Jan Sangh; RSS; VHP; Sangh Prewar; BJP
• The popularity of Hindutva ideology: Since 1977; Since the mid-1990s
• The social base of Modi
Amit Shah branded Muslims as “termites”
Appointment of A.N.Yogi as the CM of UP
• BJP’s success in Lok Sabha polls (May 2019)
 THE REVOCATION OF ARTICLE 370 AND 35(A) OF THE INDIAN
CONSTITUTION AND ITS IMPACT/EFFECTS ON CONSTITUTIONAL
STATUS OF KASHMIR (III)
The Article 370 (Ali Nawaz The Article 35(A) The revocation of the articles and
Chowhan, “Fighting a Diligent their overall impact on the status of
case”, Kashmir
Anuradha Bhasin: “ Kashmir
Bringing the Israeli model to
Kashmir”.
 INDIA’S MANEUVERS TO INTEGRATE KASHMIR SINCE 5
AUGUST(I):

• Lockdown/clampdown
• Blatant Use of Coercive Tactics
• Resettlement of non-Kashmiris
• The introduction of the new Domicile Rule
• The Redrawing of Kashmir’s Map
• Detentions of Kashmiris by invoking Section 107 of the Criminal Procedure Code,1898.
• The delimitation (redrawing of boundaries) of electoral constituencies.
LOCKDOWN/CLAMPDOWN

• Asif Durrani,DT, 22 July 2020.

BLATANT USE OF COERCIVE TACTICS

• Asif Durrani
RESETTLEMENT OF NON-KASHMIRIS

• ‘BJP’s Plan ‘A’ and ‘B’: Moonis Ahmer

THE INTRODUCTION OF THE NEW DOMICILE RULE

• 31 March 2020
• Details: Anuradha Bhasin
THE REDRAWING OF KASHMIR’S MAP

• A.G.Noorani: Shimla and AJK:

THE DETENTIONS OF KASHMIRIS UNDER THE SECTION 107 OF THE
CRIMINAL PROCEDURE CODE,1898.

• By invoking Section 107 of the Criminal Procedure Code,1898.

• A.G.Noorani: Destroying Kashmir
• J and K has detained nearly 6000 political leaders.
• Three Former CMs
THE DELIMITATION( REDRAWING OF
BOUNDARIES) OF ELECTORAL CONSTITUENCIES.
CRITICAL VIEW

• Shahid Javed Burki: the end of “Idea of India”.

• A.G.Noorani: “Destroying Kashmir” …
• Anuradha Bhasin: “ Today, a pathway is being paved for replicating the Israeli model of
occupation and consolidation of the West Bank in Kashmir…through new settlers”.
THE UNILATERAL ACTION/PROVOCATIVE
ACTION OF THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT AND
DIFFICULT CHOICES FOR PAKISTAN (IV)
• Pakistan is left with two hard choices…
• (unstinted support):war
• (soft-policy: allow status quo ante to prevail
PAKISTAN’S RESPONSE

• Downgrading diplomatic ties

• Suspension of bilateral trade
• Reviewing of bilateral agreements
• Forcefully raising the issue at UNSC
• Sustained efforts to ward off the FATF challenges/
• Launching of vigorous propaganda campaign through media and lobbying
• The issuance of new political map on 4 August 2020.
DOWNGRADING DIPLOMATIC TIES
SUSPENSION OF BILATERAL TRADE
REVIEWING OF BILATERAL AGREEMENTS

• Syed Nazir Gilani: DT, 10 August 2020.

FORCEFULLY RAISING THE ISSUE AT UNSC
SUSTAINED EFFORTS TO WARD OFF THE FATF CHALLENGES/
LAUNCHING OF VIGOROUS PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN THROUGH
MEDIA AND LOBBYING
THE ISSUANCE OF NEW POLITICAL MAP ON 4
AUGUST 2020.
PAKISTAN’S RESPONSE: ITS LIMITATIONS
SUGGESTIONS(I)

• Pakistan should support Kashmiris and make efforts to forge unity within their ranks.
(Mohammad Hanif, “What should be Pakistan’s Future Kashmir Strategy”,DT,19 August
2019. + Zamir Akram
• Aggressive diplomacy to highlight the Indian illegality… Further suggestions…
• Pakistan should not move out of Simla….
• FATF: Modi’s Final solution (Ashraf Jahangir Qazi)
• Pakistan must do all it can but cannot risk its own existence.. The direction of nuclear
deterrence capability… Some possible way outs:
SUGGESTIONS (II)

• Pakistan should move toward more pragmatic solution.

• What are we left with?(Irfan Hussain): Four options; use of conventional forces under
“nuclear overhang" up to certain point.
• What Pakistan should realize? M.Hanif, 19 August 2019.
• On diplomatic front Pakistan has several options:(Zamir Akram: 22 August 2019).
• Munir Akram: 18 August 2019.