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 The search for opportunities and the
structuring of business entities to exploit
those opportunities with current or near
term organizational capabilities.
Involves:
 Creation and analysis of markets and
market segments.
 Maintenance of relationships with
partners: customers, channel members,
or suppliers of complementary products
and services.
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 Usefulness of Forecast determined by:
 Time
 Effort
 Money Invested

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 Marketing Forecast attempts to account
for:
 Technological change
 Time horizons
 Barriers to entry/exit
 Elasticity of demand
 Forecast expenditures

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  Strategic forecasts
 Marketing planning forecasts
 Marketing operation forecasts (MOFs)
 Sales forecasts

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  “Top down” forecast
 Usually 3-5 years
 More qualitative than quantitative
 Attempt to reconcile reality with
desired strategic direction

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  Usually associated with a product or
market
 Significant inputs from market
research and competitive analysis
 Attempt to predict what customers
and competitors will do
 Usually 1-3 year periods

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  Usually the responsibility of the field
marketing organization
 Tactical in nature
 Source of significant market information,
often sourced through customer
relationships
 An element in sales forecasts
 Serves many parts of the organization
 Usually 1-3 year periods; continuously
updated
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  Shorter range than MOF
 Input to logistical functions, resource
planning, etc.
 Usually derived from analysis of
historical data — assumption that
future activities will follow current
patterns

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 Often involve statistical manipulation of
historical data
 Rolling Averages
 Econometric Models
 Delphi Approach

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 Business Development
Tracking Grid
Exhibit 11-2
Products
New Existing

New
New
Business Translation

Markets

Existing Core Churn Core

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  Provides the “who, what, where,
when and how much information”
about current and future business
› Core Business
› Core Churn
› Real New Business
› Translation Business

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 The TALC and PLC
Superimposed
Exhibit 11-4
PLC – Total
Sales

TALC - Sales from

New Adopters/
Period

Time

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 Ever-changing as new customer groups
emerge at different stages:

 Development Stage
 Introduction Stage
 Growth Stage
 Maturity Stage
 Decline Stage
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 Exhibit 11-6

Development Chasm and Tornado – Maturity Decline

Activity Intro Stage
Stage Early Growth Later Growth Stage Stage

Research & analysis ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲

Product development
▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲

New business
▲ ▲ ▲
development

Translation business dev.

▲ ▲ ▲

Core churn business dev.

▲ ▲ ▲

Selling & sales support

▲ ▲ ▲

Channel development &

▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
management

Market communication
▲ ▲ ▲

Customer service ▲

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Business Development Bands
Over The Product Life Cycle
Exhibit 11-7

Range of Major
Sales-Driven Effort

Revenue

Time
Range of Initial Business Range of Major
Development for Each Translation Effort
Offering

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