‫بسم هللا الرحمن الرحيم‬

University of Medical Sciences and Technology

Faculty of Medicine
Department of Community Medicine
Tutorial No. (5)

Hypothesis testing and confidence

Omina Salih
MBBS
1- raise your hand if you want to participate.
2- disturbing side talks are not allowed.
3- Avoid interrupting each other.
4- Respect each other’s point of view.
5- feel free to ask questions at any time.
Learning objectives:
By the end of this tutorial the student should be
able to:
• Define the concept of hypothesis and null
hypothesis
• Interpret the p-value and confidence interval.
• Define type I and type II errors.
• Steps in doing a significance test:
1. Specify the hypothesis of interest as a null and
alternative hypothesis.
2. Decide what statistical test is appropriate.
3. Use the test to calculate the P value.
4. Weigh the evidence from the P value in favor of
the null or alternative hypothesis.
Null hypothesis
= no difference , no association
Alternative hypothesis
= there is a difference, there is an association.

P value = is the probability, given that the null

hypothesis is true, of obtaining data as extreme or
more extreme than that observed.
H0 accepted H0 rejected
No error Type I H0 true
Type II No error H0 false
Power of the(
)test = 1-B
Confidence level :
degree of assurance for an interval to contain the
value of the parameter.

Confidence level= 1 – a

Acceptable confidence level = 95%

Select the best answer:

1- P-value is defined as:

(a) Probability of declaring a significant difference
when actually it is not present
(b) Probability of declaring a significant difference
when actually it is present
(c) Probability of not declaring a significant
difference when actually it is not present
(d) Probability of not declaring a significant
difference when actually it is present
Select the best answer:

1- P-value is defined as:

(a) Probability of declaring a significant difference
when actually it is not present
(b) Probability of declaring a significant difference
when actually it is present
(c) Probability of not declaring a significant
difference when actually it is not present
(d) Probability of not declaring a significant
difference when actually it is present
2- P-value is the probability of:

(a) Not rejecting a null hypothesis when true

(b) Rejecting a null hypothesis when true
(c) Not rejecting a null hypothesis when false
(d) Rejecting a null hypothesis when false
2- P-value is the probability of:

(a) Not rejecting a null hypothesis when true

(b) Rejecting a null hypothesis when true
(c) Not rejecting a null hypothesis when false
(d) Rejecting a null hypothesis when false
3-When we say that “the difference is
significant”, it means that:

(a) It is likely by chance and when P> 0.0.5

(b) It is unlikely by chance and when P > 0.05
(c) It is unlikely by chance and when P < 0.05
(d) It is likely by chance and when P < 0.05
3-When we say that “the difference is
significant”, it means that:

(a) It is likely by chance and when P> 0.0.5

(b) It is unlikely by chance and when P > 0.05
(c) It is unlikely by chance and when P < 0.05
(d) It is likely by chance and when P < 0.05
4- In a test of significance, P value is 0.023 the
observed difference in study can be considered
as:
(a) Null hypothesis accepted and the study is
rejected
(b) Null hypothesis rejected and the study is
accepted
(c) Null hypothesis accepted and the study is
accepted
(d) Null hypothesis rejected and the study is also
rejected
4- In a test of significance, P value is 0.023 the
observed difference in study can be considered
as:
(a) Null hypothesis accepted and the study is
rejected
(b) Null hypothesis rejected and the study is
accepted
(c) Null hypothesis accepted and the study is
accepted
(d) Null hypothesis rejected and the study is also
rejected
5- Power of study can be increased by:
(a) Increasing a error
(b) Decreasing b error
(c) Decreasing a error
(d) Increasing b error
5- Power of study can be increased by:
(a) Increasing a error
(b) Decreasing b error
(c) Decreasing a error
(d) Increasing b error
6- All are true except:

(a) Alpha is the maximum tolerable probability of

type-I error
(b) Beta is the probability of type-II error
(c) When Null Hypothesis is true but is rejected, it
is type-II error
(d) P-value can be more or less than a (alpha).
6- All are true except:

(a) Alpha is the maximum tolerable probability of

type-I error
(b) Beta is the probability of type-II error
(c) When Null Hypothesis is true but is rejected, it
is type-II error
(d) P-value can be more or less than a (alpha).
7- All are true about P-value except:

(a) Is the probability of committing Type-I error

(b) Is equal to 1-b
(c) Is the chance that the presence of difference is
concluded when actually there is none
(d) When P-value is less than a (alpha), the result is
statistically significant.
7- All are true about P-value except:

(a) Is the probability of committing Type-I error

(b) Is equal to 1-b
(c) Is the chance that the presence of difference is
concluded when actually there is none
(d) When P-value is less than a (alpha), the result is
statistically significant.
8- A randomized trial comparing efficacy of two
regimens showed that difference is statistically
significant with p<0.001 but in reality the two
drugs do not differ in their efficacy. This is an
example of:
(a)Type-I error (a error)
(b) Type – II error (b error)
(c) 1-a
(d) 1-b
8- A randomized trial comparing efficacy of two
regimens showed that difference is statistically
significant with p<0.001 but in reality the two
drugs do not differ in their efficacy. This is an
example of:
(a)Type-I error (a error)
(b) Type – II error (b error)
(c) 1-a
(d) 1-b
9- The “P” value of a randomized controlled trial
comparing operation (new procedure) & Operation B
(Gold standard) is 0.04. From this, we conclude that:
(a)Type II error is small & we can accept the findings of the
study
(b) The probability of false negative conclusion that
operation A is better than operation B, when in truth it is
not, is 4%
(c) The power of study to detect a difference between
operation A & B is 96%
(d) The probability of a false positive conclusion that
operation ‘Operation A is better that Operation B’, when
in truth it is not, is 4%
9- The “P” value of a randomized controlled trial
comparing operation (new procedure) & Operation B
(Gold standard) is 0.04. From this, we conclude that:
(a)Type II error is small & we can accept the findings of the
study
(b) The probability of false negative conclusion that
operation A is better than operation B, when in truth it is
not, is 4%
(c) The power of study to detect a difference between
operation A & B is 96%
(d) The probability of a false positive conclusion that
operation ‘Operation A is better that Operation B’, when
in truth it is not, is 4%
10- A sample of 1513 babies with mean birth
weight = 3325g and standard deviation (SD)=
528g.
Calculate the 95% confidence interval.
10- A sample of 1513 babies with mean birth
weight = 3325g and standard deviation (SD) =
528g.
Calculate the 95% confidence interval.
Standard error (SE) = SD/√n

CI= mean – 1.96 *SE to mean + 1.96*SE

= 3325-1.96* 528/ √1513 to 3325+1.96* 528/

√1513
= 3298 to 3352 .
11- The increase in population standard
deviation will:

(a) Increase the length of a confidence interval.

(b) Shorten the length of a confidence interval.
(c) Have no effect
11- The increase in population standard
deviation will:

(a) Increase the length of a confidence interval.

(b) Shorten the length of a confidence interval.
(c) Have no effect
Learning objectives:
By the end of this tutorial the student should be
able to:
 Define the concept of hypothesis and null
hypothesis
 Interpret the p-value and confidence interval.
 Define type I and type II errors.