The Belt and Road Initiative

Irfan Waheed Usmani

Outline
• Introduction
• The Underlying Motives of the Belt and Road(BRI)
• The Salient Features of the BRI
• BRI: Its prospective benefits to China
• Would China be to realize the potential/vision of the BRI?
• What China(and Pakistan) should do to address the Challenges? How
China should respond to the challenges?
• Summing Up
Introduction
What is the BRI all How are Chinese Its prospective/far-The point-of-view Suspended
about? depicting/ reaching impact on of its detractors : judgement
portraying it? world politics China’s bid/attempt
to hegemonize the
World
Brief hint:
The underlying Win-win situation It would mark a new To counter-poise the Rhetorical strategy
motive Which would usher shift in the global Chinse influence US
in a new era of ….. balance of power. . and its allies have
produced/ a well-
thought out
plan/scheme, which
is finding its
manifestations in
several initiatives:
name these
initiatives
The Underlying Motives of the Belt and Road(BRI)

• To resolve the issue of over-production and to ward-off resultant

unemployment.
• To ensure regular supply of raw material and food imports
• To search alternative routes to ship China’s imports and exports/ to
reduce China’s dependence on the South China Sea
• To reduce fuel cost and save time
• To stimulate economic growth in China’s mid-West and West…
• It marks fundamental re-ordering of China’s growth strategy
The Salient Features of the BRI
Features: Summing Up
• The two-broad category of connectivity initiatives: land-based and
maritime
• Silk Road Economic Belt(SREB)
• The Twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road(MSR)….[String of Pearls
Strategy]
• SREB+MSR=BRI
• Chinse investment: $4—8 trillion
• The countries that have joined: 60 countries… population 4.25—4.40
billion.
The Benefits China would accrue through
BRI

• It would provide solution to the issue of over-production.

• Create lots of opportunities for employment of Chinese labour force.
• Reduce fuel costs and save time
• Provide possible opportunities for Chinese investors to have greater access to growing
middle classes of the member countries... (indicate the size of middle class)…
• It would be instrumental in overcoming the issue of chronic poverty in China’s mid-west
and west.
• Provide China access to cheap raw material and food stuffs
• Greater Chinese control over Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans
• Shift in the balance of power
Would China be to realize the potential/vision
of the BRI?
• The Chinks/Hurdles in the path of the BRI: An Overview
• (Rhetorical Strategy: it is easier to be said than done).
• Challenges:
• (I)Changing perception of US
• (II)Indian Frustration
• (III)The Concerns of states/US allies located around the South China Sea
• (IV) The Policy initiative of US to counter-poise China
• (V) The grave/ potential threats to peace that the on-going conflicts pose
• (VI) The risks that various Chinse studies highlight:
(2017) A recently revealed 231-page document lists five risks(to CPEC): Pakistan’s “competing
political parties (read: multiparty democracy), religion, tribes, terrorists and Western
intervention”.
Would China be to realize the potential/vision
of the BRI?
What China(and Pakistan) should do to address the Challenges? How
China should respond to the challenges?

• Suggestions
Summing Up
The BRI’s Challenges to China(and Pakistan)
• Introduction
• The Challenges
• What China (and Pakistan) should do to respond the Challenges?
(suggestions)
• Summing Up
Introduction

• Same as we have discussed earlier.

The Challenges China needs to Address/ Overcome

• (I)Changing perception of US
• (II) The Growing frustrations of high-ranking US Officials as manifested in
their policy-statements…
• (III)Indian Frustration
• (III)The Concerns of states/US allies located around the South China Sea
• (IV) The Policy initiative of US to counter-poise China
• (V) The grave/ potential threats to peace that the on-going conflicts pose
• (VI) The risks that various Chinse studies highlight
• (VII) The lack of Disclosure
(I)Changing perception of US : Main reasons
• Chinse clout in the World: growing dependence of member countries
on China; (further analysis)…
• Apprehensions of Chinse supremacy in the Pan-Asian Order
• It would mark new shifts in the global realities of power: the world
would no longer remain unipolar it would either become bi-polar or
multi-polar.
• The new power configuration would challenge the US hegemony.
(II) The Growing frustrations of high-ranking US
Officials as manifested in their policy-statements…
• Jim Mattis(former US Defence Secretary): 4 October 2017.
• Rex Tillerson (October 2017 during his maiden visit to Asia)
• Mike Pompeo (August 2018).
• Mark Asper (US Defence Secretary) : 4 August 2019
• The Letter of signed by sixteen American senators to US Secretaries of
State and Treasure
• Joseph Dunford (Chairman US joint Chiefs of staff before a US armed services
Committee on 16 March 2019
• Mrs Alice Wells (US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia): 23 November
2019
Jim Mattis(former US Defence Secretary): 4
October 2017.
Rex Tillerson (October 2017 during his
maiden visit to Asia)
18 October 25 October
Julie Macarthy, “ Tillerson’s Visit highlights India’s
evolving partnership with US”, 26 Octboer 2017 .
The Letter of signed by sixteen American
senators to US Secretaries of State and Treasure
Joseph Dunford (Chairman US joint Chiefs of staff before a US
armed services Committee on 16 March 2019
Mike Pompeo (August 2018).
Mark Asper (US Defence Secretary) : 4
August 2019
Mrs Alice Wells (US Assistant Secretary of
State for South Asia): 23 November 2019
Joseph Dunford (Chairman US joint Chiefs of staff before a US armed
services Committee on 16 March 2019
(III)Indian Frustration
Reasons
(I) It could usher in an era of
stability and prosperity for
Pakistan.
(II) It would raise Chinese stakes in
Pakistan's security and stability.
Further explanation:
(III) Further legitimize Pakistan's
claim on Kashmir
(IV) The BRI would presage the rise
of China as a global power: write
few words on India China stand-off
How is the frustration manifested
in the statements?
“The RBI is an effort to isolate my
country by locking it in a system it
cannot reach”, 2017: An Indian
participant at an international
seminar
“China is using land area illegally
occupied by Pakistan”, Seshadri
Chari(the Executive Member of the
ruling BJP).
The steps/maneuvers/
machinations
The fresh/ new allegation that the
DG ISPR levelled against India: \
(I) Promotion of sub-nationalism
(II) India established a dedicated
cell
(III) Established a militia
(IV) (set aside $ 60 million for the
purpose.
The Letter of signed by Sixteen American senators to US
Secretaries of
State and Treasure
• Pak will seek IMF bailout to pay off “debt obligations caused by
CPEC”,which not only “ illustrates the dangers of China’s debt trap
diplomacy” but also poses a “national security threat to the US”.
• The letter further describes the nature of the threat: as China’s
alleged control over the Gwadar port could be “converted into a naval
base” to enable Chinese Navy to “maintain a permanent presence in
the Indian Ocean”.
• On which note the Letter ends? It concludes by alleging that the
China’s BRI of which CPEC is an integral part is designed to create “an
economic world order ultimately dominated by China”.
(III)The Concerns of states/US allies located around the South China
Sea

Taiwan Vietnam Singapore Philippines Australia

Vietnam and Australia
Philippines are traditionally a major
among rival power in South
claimants on the Pacific: has
South China Sea. promised up to A$3
bn($2.04 bn) in
grants and cheap
loans
Nov.2019: it
specifically
maintained” New
relations with
Vietnam by
highlighting arms
sales, joint military
exercises and a port
visit from the
aircraft US USS Carl
Vinson 2018”.
The Concerns of states/US allies located
around the South China Sea: The US
Concerns
US Concerns Mark Asper Randall G. Schriever, US Assistant Mark Asper’s article
Secretary of state for Indo-Pacific
(I) Chinse increasing control. 14 November 2019: he made the “The Indo-Pacific strategy has several “America’s network of alliances is its
(II) Predatory economics second Indo-Pacific visit to counter foundations, including economic, good greatest combat advantage, and no
(III) Taiwan’s security Chinese power. governance, security. There is an where is that more important than in
(IV) Sovereignty, international law and emphasis on sovereignty, international Indo-Pacific region”, which Defence
customs. customs, and law. The tactic call for Secretary has called America’s “priority
(V) China’s increasing influence in dispute resolution and mutual free- theatre”. Cited in Ankit Pand, South
South Pacific. trade, cited in “The United States Chia Morning post, 17 November 2019.
pursues stronger Defence
Cooperation”, The Daily Kaler Kanton, 1
February 2020.
Pentagon’s Statement on the visit:
named China as a “greater threat
threat than Russia and added he
would discuss Chinese claims in the
disputed South and east China seas.
Mark Asper’s article:
(IV) The Policy initiative of US to counter-
poise China
IPEC Pivot to Asia
Strategy
To contain China, the US, “Pivot to
Asia”, has strengthened existing
alliances with Japan, Australia and
South Korea while developing
strategic alliances with new partners
India and Vietnam, which have their
own differences with China.
Quadrilateral It is also trying Us further Putting pressure
Alliance to rope in wants to see the on the global
Australia into Middle eastern rating agencies
alliance with countries to downgrade
the US become part of Pakistan’s credit
the alliance ranking
In particular they have developed the Mike Pompeo’s visit to Australia Underlying motive: to beef up
“Quadrilateral Alliance” involving the August 2005: security in the strait of Hourmuz.
US, Japan, Australia and India, to UsS also wants to see Austraila as a
control the Indian and Pacific Oceans, part of maritime coalition in the Gulf
through the newly- termed US “Indo-
Pacific Command”. The ostensible
purpose is to ensure freedom of
navigation in this region.
But the real objective is to contain
China — especially by holding
hostage its vital shipping links on
which 80 per cent of Chinese trade
depends.
The US has also instigated the littoral
states of the South China Sea to
abandon their bilateral negotiations
with China to settle territorial
differences, while promoting itself as
the final arbiter in these disputes.
These efforts are backed up by
American naval and air operations in
the South China Sea.
(IV) The Policy initiative of US to counter-
poise China ( from BRI slides)
IPEC Pivot to Asia
Strategy
To contain China, the US, “Pivot to
Asia”, has strengthened existing
alliances with Japan, Australia and
South Korea while developing
strategic alliances with new partners
India and Vietnam, which have their
own differences with China.
Quadrilateral It is also trying Us further Putting pressure
Alliance to rope in wants to see the on the global
Australia into Middle eastern rating agencies
alliance with countries to downgrade
the US become part of Pakistan’s credit
the alliance ranking
In particular they have developed the Mike Pompeo’s visit to Australia Underlying motive: to beef up
“Quadrilateral Alliance” involving the August 2005: security in the strait of Hourmuz.
US, Japan, Australia and India, to UsS also wants to see Austraila as a
control the Indian and Pacific Oceans, part of maritime coalition in the Gulf
through the newly- termed US “Indo-
Pacific Command”. The ostensible
purpose is to ensure freedom of
navigation in this region.
But the real objective is to contain
China — especially by holding
hostage its vital shipping links on
which 80 per cent of Chinese trade
depends.
The US has also instigated the littoral
states of the South China Sea to
abandon their bilateral negotiations
with China to settle territorial
differences, while promoting itself as
the final arbiter in these disputes.
These efforts are backed up by
American naval and air operations in
the South China Sea.
(V) The grave/ potential threats to peace that
the on-going conflicts pose
(VI) The risks that various Chinse studies highlight: Understanding
CPEC:

Competing political Religion Tribes Terrorists Western

parties (read interventions
multiparty
democracy).
(VII) The Lack of Disclosure
• It could create doubt among general public that could erode
consensus or shatter consensus.
CPEC and Challenges to Pakistan
• Imtiaz Gul, “Does Chahbahar matter”?, DT, 3 November 2017.
What China(and Pakistan) should do to address the
Challenges? How China should respond to the challenges?(I)
• (I) They should try (are already trying) to dispel the impression that
there are certain ulterior motives of the CPEC.
• (II) China should play role in diffusing India—Pakistan Tensions
• (III) It should try to dispel Indian concerns.
• (IV) What should Pakistan do?
(I) They should try (are already trying) to dispel the impression that there are certain ulterior motives of the CPEC.

• Former Chinese Consul General Wang Yu’s statement on 22 October

2017 : “Around 60 countries have joined it so far. The aim of the
project is to bring the whole world together as the world can live like
a big family”.
• Xi Jingling's speech/address in a symposium marking the Fifth
anniversary of BRI: 27 August 2018.
• Saddam Hussain, “Xi’s BRI”, DT, 6 September 2018.
(II)
• What did he emphasize or lay stress on?
• The kind of impression he tried to dispel and what he tried to stress
upon?
• “BRI is an initiative of economic cooperation, instead of a geopolitical
alliance or military league, it is an open an inclusive process rather
than an exclusive bloc, or “China club”.
• “ it does not differentiate countries by ideology nor play zero sum
game. As long as countries are willing to join, they are welcome”,.
(II) It should try to dispel Indian concerns
• The regional and global interests of Chinese also demand cordiality in
Sino-India relations.
• Example: Sino—Indian trade is more than five times larger than the
volume of Pak—China trade.
• Chinese did not involve ideology in their foreign policy. Their
economic and political interests are the major determinants of their
relationship.
(III)China should play role in diffusing India
—Pakistan Tensions:
• Chinese leadership offer platform of SCO to discus and resolve India
Pakistan disputes.
•
(IV)What should Pakistan do?
• Pakistan should keep its house in order.
• It should improve its governance.
• Improve law and order situation in the country.
• Allay Chinese concerns cornering the CPEC.
• Develop consensus on China policy.
• Bring more transparency and disclosure on policies relating to CPEC.
Summing Up
• Zamir Akram, “Assault on CPEC”, The ET, 8 September 2018.