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© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 1 of 45
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 2 of 45
PART IV FURTHER MACROECONOMICS ISSUES
Policy Timing,
Deficit 15
Targeting, and
Stock
Market Effects
Prepared by:
Fernando & Yvonn Quijano
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster
PART IV FURTHER MACROECONOMICS ISSUES
Policy Timing,
15
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
Deficit
Targeting, and
Stock
CHAPTER
Market Effects OUTLINE
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and
Fiscal Policy
Stabilization
Recognition Lags
Implementation Lags
Response Lags
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 4 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 5 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
Path A is less stable—it varies more over time—than path B. Other things being equal, society prefers
path B to path A.
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 6 of 45
The main goal of stabilization policy is to:
a. Take economic measures that enhance the credibility of
government institutions.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 7 of 45
The main goal of stabilization policy is to:
a. Take economic measures that enhance the credibility of
government institutions.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 8 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Stabilization
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 9 of 45
A leading critic of stabilization policy that likened government attempts
to stabilize the economy to a “fool in the shower” is:
a. John Maynard Keynes.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
b. Adam Smith.
c. Milton Friedman.
d. Jean-Paul Sartre.
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 10 of 45
A leading critic of stabilization policy that likened government attempts
to stabilize the economy to a “fool in the shower” is:
a. John Maynard Keynes.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
b. Adam Smith.
c. Milton Friedman.
d. Jean-Paul Sartre.
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 11 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Recognition Lags
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
Implementation Lags
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 12 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Response Lags
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 13 of 45
Which lag occurs because of the operation of the economy, or the time
it takes for the multiplier to reach its full value?
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 14 of 45
Which lag occurs because of the operation of the economy, or the time
it takes for the multiplier to reach its full value?
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 15 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Response Lags
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 16 of 45
Time Lags Regarding Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Response Lags
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
Summary
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 17 of 45
Which of the following changes in fiscal policy has a shorter response
lag than the others?
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 18 of 45
Which of the following changes in fiscal policy has a shorter response
lag than the others?
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 19 of 45
Fiscal Policy: Deficit Targeting
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 20 of 45
Fiscal Policy: Deficit Targeting
The Effects of Spending Cuts on the Deficit
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 21 of 45
Fill in the blank. When there is a contraction in the economy, automatic
spending cuts to reduce the deficit would have to be ___________
the corresponding increase in government expenditures.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
a. exactly equal to
b. greater than
c. less than
d. exactly twice as large as
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 22 of 45
Fill in the blank. When there is a contraction in the economy, automatic
spending cuts to reduce the deficit would have to be ___________
the corresponding increase in government expenditures.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
a. exactly equal to
b. greater than
c. less than
d. exactly twice as large as
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 23 of 45
Fiscal Policy: Deficit Targeting
The Effects of Spending Cuts on the Deficit
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 24 of 45
To prevent the change in output arising from a cut in government
spending, the Fed could try to:
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 25 of 45
To prevent the change in output arising from a cut in government
spending, the Fed could try to:
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 26 of 45
Fiscal Policy: Deficit Targeting
Economic Stability and Deficit Reduction
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 27 of 45
Fiscal Policy: Deficit Targeting
Economic Stability and Deficit Reduction
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
b. An automatic destabilizer.
c. A negative demand shock.
d. Maximized.
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 29 of 45
In a world without deficit targeting, the deficit is:
a. An automatic stabilizer.
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
b. An automatic destabilizer.
c. A negative demand shock.
d. Maximized.
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 30 of 45
Fiscal Policy: Deficit Targeting
Summary
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 31 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stocks and Bonds
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 32 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Determining the Price of a Stock
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 33 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
The Stock Market Since 1948
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 34 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
The Stock Market Since 1948
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
FIGURE 15.5 The S&P 500 Stock Price Index, 1948 I–2007 IV
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 35 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
The Stock Market Since 1948
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 36 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 37 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 38 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 39 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 40 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
FIGURE 15.9 Ratio of Federal Government Budget Surplus to GDP, 1995 I–2002 III
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 41 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 42 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 43 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 44 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 45 of 45
The Stock Market and the Economy
Stock Market Effects on the Economy
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
Bubbles or Rational
Investors?
Bernanke’s Bubble Laboratory:
Princeton Protégés of Fed
Chief Study the Economics of
Manias
Wall Street Journal
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 46 of 45
REVIEW TERMS AND CONCEPTS
CHAPTER 15 Policy Timing, Deficit Targeting, and Stock Market Effects
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Macroeconomics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 47 of 45