Probability and Statistics

BAKU HIGHER OIL

SCHOOL
 Counting Rules. Permutations.
Combinations.
• For any positive integer we define
• -factorial, written , as
•
• We define
• The Fundamental Counting Principle. If one
event can occur in ways and another event can
occur in ways, then the number of ways that both
events can occur is .
• The fundamental counting principle can be
extended to three or more events.
• Example 1. The standard configuration for a New York
license plate is 3 digits followed by 3 letters.
How many different license plates are possible if digits
and letters can be repeated?
How many different license plates are possible if digits
and letters cannot be repeated?

• Example 2. A student can select one of 6 different

mathematics books, one of 3 different chemistry books
and one of 4 different science books. In how many
different ways can a student select a book of
mathematics, a book of chemistry and a book of
science?
• An ordering of n objects is a permutation of
the objects. For example, there are six
permutations of the letters A, B, and C:
• ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA.
• We can find the number of ways you can arrange
the letters A, B, and C by multiplying. There are 3
choices for the first letter, 2 choices for the
second letter, and 1 choice for the third letter, so
there are
• ways to arrange the letters.
• In general, the number of permutations of n
distinct objects is:
• Example 3. Twelve skiers are competing in the
final round of the Olympic freestyle skiing aerial
competition.
• In how many different ways can the skiers
finish the competition? (Assume there are no
ties.)
• In how many different ways can 3 of the skiers
finish first, second, and third to win the gold,
silver, and bronze medals?
• Permutations. The number of possible distinct
arrangements of objects chosen from a set of
objects is called the number of permutations of
objects taken at a time, and equals

• A permutation is an arrangement where the

order is important.
• For example, is a different permutation from .
• Example 4. Consider the letters and If two
letters are chosen, then find the number of all
possible permutations without repetition.
• Example 5. You are considering 10 different colleges.
Before you decide to apply to the colleges, you want to
visit some of them. In how many orders can you visit 5 of
the colleges?

• Example 6.
• A telephone number contains 6 digits. How many possible
telephone numbers are there in which no digit is
repeated?
• A telephone number contains 6 digits. How many possible
numbers are there in which number digit is repeated?
• The number of distinguishable permutations of
n objects where one object is repeated times, another
is repeated times, and so on is calculated by
•
• Example 7. Find the number of distinguishable
permutations of the letters in the word MISSISSIPPI?
• Example 8. How many arrangements are there of
the letters of the word SCROOGE? In how many of
these are the O' s together?
• Combinations. The number of ways objects
can be chosen from a set of objects without
regard to the order of selection is called the
number of combinations of objects taken at a
time, and equals

• A combination is a selection of items where the

order does not important.
• For example, is the same combination as .
Example 9. A box of 15 transistors has 5
defective ones. If four transistors are drawn at a
random from the box, find the probability that
• all four transistors are defective;
• two transistors are good and two of them are
defective;
• three transistors are good and one of them is
defective;
• d) at most 3 are defective.
Bayes’ Theorem
• Bayesian statistics is a collection of tools that is
used in a special form of statistical inference
which applies in the analysis of experimental
data in many practical situations in science and
business.
• Bayes’ theorem is one of the most important
rules in probability theory.
• It is the foundation of Bayesian inference.
• Bayes’ theorem enables you to solve more
difficult probability problems where you need to
analyze different possibilities. To visualize the
situation you can use a Venn diagram.
• The Venn diagram shows that event A may
occur when event B occurs or A may occur
when B doesn’t occur.
• These are mutually exclusive situations.
• You can use this fact to write as the sum of two
expressions which correspond to the two
situations.

• This formula is called the total probability

formula.
• The events and are called hypotheses since we don’t
know whether they have occurred or not.
• The next example uses the total probability formula in
a real-life context.

• Example 1. In a computer factory each mouse is

checked by one of two controllers. The first controller
checks of the mouses and finds of them to be
defective. The second controller finds that of his
mouses are defective. What is the probability that a
mouse will be found to be defective by the controllers?
• If a defective mouse is found, what is the probability
that the first controller found it?
• Sometimes instead of only two hypotheses we
have three or even more hypotheses. In that
case you use a similar calculation.
• Let and be events such that:
• Here is Bayes’ theorem, which allows you to
calculate conditional probability (the probability
of a hypothesis given that an event has
occurred):
Example (Solve with the tree diagram and formula)

Suppose that a laboratory test on a blood sample yields one of

two results, positive or negative. It is found that 95% of
people with a particular disease produce a positive result. But
2% of people without the disease will also produce a positive
result (a false positive). Suppose that 1% of the population
actually has the disease. What is the probability that a person
chosen at random from the population will have the disease,
given that the person's blood yields a positive result?
• Example 2.
• At a university there are 65% female and 35% male
students. Only 25% of the female students are taking
statistics, whilst 60% of the male students are taking the
course. A randomly selected student from the university is
taking statistics. Find the probability that the student is
female.
• Example 3.
• Suppose 30% of the women in a class received an A on the
test and 25% of the men received an A. The class is 60%
women. Given that a person chosen at random received an
A, what is the probability this person is a women?
• Example 4. Two boxes contain cards. In the
first box there are 9 cards with numbers 1 to 9
written on them, and in the second box there are
5 cards with numbers 4 to 8 written on them. A
box is randomly selected and a card is drawn
from it.
• What is the probability that the card will show
an even number?
• What is the probability that an even card was
drawn from the first box?
• Example 5.
• Example 6.

It is estimated that 50% of emails are spam emails. Some

software has been applied to filter these spam emails
before they reach your inbox. A certain brand of software
claims that it can detect 99% of spam emails, and the
probability for a false positive (a non-spam email detected
as spam) is 5%. Now if an email is detected as spam, then
what is the probability that it is in fact a non-spam email?
 • Example 7.

A hospital has 300 nurses. During the past year, 48 of the

nurses earned a pay raise. At the beginning of the year, the
hospital offered a special training seminar, which was
attended by 138 of the nurses. Twenty-seven of the nurses
who earned a raise had attended the training seminar.
a. What is the probability that a nurse who attended the
seminar earned a pay raise?
b. If a nurse is selected at random, what is the probability
that the person attended the seminar and earned a pay
raise?
c. What is the probability that a nurse who earned a pay
raise had attended the training seminar?
• Example 8.
Thank you
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