PROBABILITY [Online page# 144]

Definition: Probability: A value between 0 and 1,

inclusive, describing the relative possibility (chance or
likelihood) an event will occur.
Experiment: A process that leads to the occurrence of
one and only one of the several possible observations.
Outcome: A particular result of an experiment.
For Example the tossing of a coin is an experiment.
One particular outcome is a "head", the alternative
outcome is a "tail".
• Event: A collection of one or more outcomes of an
experiment.
• Exercise: In the die- rolling experiment, there are six
possible outcomes, but there are many possible
events.
• Expt. - Roll a die
• All possible outcomes – Observe a 1, Observe a 2,
Observe a 3, Observe a 4, Observe a 5, Observe a 6.
• Some Possible events - observe an even number
• observe an odd number
• observe a number greater than 4
• observe a number 3 or less.
• A probability is frequently expressed as a decimal,
such as .70, .27 or .50. It may be given as a fraction
such as 7/10, 27/100, or . It can assume any number
from 0 to 1 inclusive.
 Approaches to Probability
• Two approaches of Probability:
• the objective and
• the subjective.
• Objective probability is subdivided into two:
• Classical probability and
• Empirical probability.
• Classical Probability:
• Classical probability is based on the assumption that
the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely.
• Definition of classical probability:
• Probability of an event = no. of favorable
outcomes/Total no. possible outcomes
• Example: Roll a six-sided die. What is the
probability of the event “ an even number of
spots appear face up?"
• Solution: There are three favorable outcomes in
the collection of six equally likely possible
outcomes.
• The probability of an even number
• = no. of favorable outcomes/Total no. Possible
outcomes= 3/6=1/2
• Mutually Exclusive: The occurrence of one
event means that none of the others can occur
at the same time.
• If only one of several events can occur at one
time, we refer to the events as mutually
exclusive.
• In the die-tossing experiment, the event "an
even number" and the event "an odd number"
are mutually exclusive. If an even number
occurred, it cannot also be an odd number.
• Empirical Concept: Another way to
define probability is based on relative
frequencies. The probability of an event
happening is determined by observing
what fraction of the time similar events
happened in the past.
• In terms of formula:
Probability of event happening
= Number of times event occurred in the past/Total
no. of observations.
Example: A study of 751 business administration
graduates of a certain university revealed 383 of
the 751 were not employed in their major area of
study in the university. For illustration, a person
who majored in accounting is now the marketing
manager of a tomato processing firm. What is
the probability that a particular business
graduate will be employed in an area other than
his or her university major?
 Solution:

Probability of event happening:

• = Number of times event occurred in the
past/Total no. of observations
• P(A) = 383/751 = 0.51
• Based on past experience, the probability
is .51 that a new business graduate will be
employed in a field other than his or her
university major.
SOME RULES OF PROBABILITY
• Rules of Addition: ( Special Rule of
Addition).
• If two events A and B are mutually
exclusive, then,
• P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B).
• For three mutually exclusive events, A, B,
C
• P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) +P(C).
 Page # 153
• Example:
• An automatic machine fills plastic bags with a
mixture of beans, peas and other vegetables.
Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but
because of the slight variation in the size of the
beans and other vegetables, a package might
be slightly underweight or overweight. A check
of 4000 packages filled in the past month
revealed:
 Prob. of
No. of Occurrence
Weight Event
Packages

Under weight A 100 .025

Satisfactory B 3600 .900

Overweight C 300 .075

4000 1.000
Total

What is the prob. that a particular package will be either underweight or overweight?
 Complement Rule:

• The probability that a bag of mixed

vegetables selected is underweight, P(A) plus
the probability that it is not an underweight
bag, written P(A)/ must logically equally to 1.
• P(A) +P(A)/ =1

• P (A) = 1 - P(A)/
• The General Rule of Addition:

P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

• The outcomes of an experiment may not be
mutually exclusive.
• Example: Suppose, the Porjaton Corporation
of Bangladesh selected a sample of 200
tourists who visited Bangladesh during the
last year. The survey revealed that 120 tourists
went to Mynamati and 100 went to Cox's
Bazar.It was also found that 60 tourists visited
both the attractions.
• What is the probability that a person selected
visited either Mynamati or Cox's Bazar?
 Joint Probability

• When two events both occur, the probability is

called a joint probability. The probability that a
tourist visits both attractions (.30) is an example
of joint probability.
• Rule of Multiplication: The special rule of
multiplication requires that our events A and B
are independent.
• INDEPENDENT: The occurrence of one event
has no effect on the probability of the
occurrence of any other event.
• Special Rule of Multiplication :
P (A and B) = P(A) P(B).
Example
• Suppose two coins are tossed the outcomes of
one coin (Head or tail) is unaffected by the
outcome of the other coin (Head or tail).
• For three independent events A, B, C, the
probability that all three events will occur is: P(A
and B and C) = P(A) P(B) P(C).
• Example: A survey by a large association
revealed 60 percent of its members made
airline reservations last year. Two
members are selected at random. What is
the probability both made airline
reservations last year?
• Solution:
• P (R1) = .60 P (R2) = .60
• P ((R1 and R2) =.60*.60 = .36